The prevailing view on the debt crises experienced by peripheral countries is that their economies are primarily exposed to shocks arising from existing internal dynamics and defaults follow a unique process. However, parallel to the development of financial capital, most debt crises in the peripheral countries have a systemic structure shaped by the dynamics of the core countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the structure in question through debt cycles and to shed light on the political economy dynamics of these cycles. Hence, foreign borrowing in Turkiye is examined from a historical perspective. In the present analysis, interest rates in core countries are identified as the main determinant of boom periods and consequent debt crises. The presence of a hegemonic power in the world economy is a major political dynamic behind the debt cycles. At the same time, the determinants of the debt crisis were empirically tested by considering 21 developing countries between 1970 and 2017. Interest rates, high inflation, GDP growth, the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP, and the ratio of short-term debt to reserves are determined to be the main dynamics. In this context, we discuss contrasting views on the sustainability of external debt and whether it is possible for a heavily indebted economy like Turkiye to escape recurring debt crises.
Amin, S. (1991). Eşitsiz Gelişme: Çevre Kapitalizminin Toplumsal Biçimleri Üzerine Deneme, (A. Kotil, Çev.). İstanbul: Arba Yayınları. google scholar
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Balkan, N. (1994). Kapitalizm ve borç krizi. Ankara: Bağlam Yayınları. google scholar
Bayoumi, T., & Bordo, M. D. (1998). Getting pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 gold resumptions. Oxford Economic Papers, 50(1), 122-149. google scholar
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Birdal, M. (1999). Uluslararası Borç Krizi ve Çevre Ülkelerinde Yapısal Dönüşüm (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul. google scholar
Birdal, M. (2010). The Political Economy of Ottoman Public Debt: Insolvency and European Financial Control in the Late Nineteenth Century. Londra ve New York, IB Tauris Publishers. google scholar
Bukharin, N. (1987). Imperialism and World Economy, Londra, Merlin Press. google scholar
Burns, A., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. New York, National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
Celasun, O. (1998). The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey. Policy, Research Working Paper WPS 1913, Washington, DC, The World Bank. google scholar
Chadha, J. S., Janssen, N., & Nolan, C. (2000). An Examination of UK Business Cycle Fluctuations, 1871-1997. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Supplementary Paper. google scholar
Eaton, J., & Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289-309. google scholar
Frank, A. G. (1984). Can the debt bomb be defused?, World Policy Journal, 1(4), 723-743. google scholar
Gordon, D. (1989). The Global Economy: New Edifice or Crumbling Foundation?, New Left Review, 168, 24-65. google scholar
Hilferding, R. (1981). Finance Capital: A Study of the Latest Phase of Capitalist Development. Londra, Boston ve Henley, Routledge & Kegan Paul. google scholar
Hobson, J. A. (1961). Imperialism: A study. Londra, George Allen & Unwin. google scholar
Homer, S., & Sylla, R. (2005). A History of Interest Rates. 4.bs., New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
IMF (2000, 09) The World Economic Outlook Database, (Çevrimiçi), https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/weo/2000/02/data/#top. google scholar
Imlah, A. H. (1958). Economic Elements in the Pax Britannica: Studies in British Foreign Trade in the Nineteenth Century. Cambridge, Harvard University Press. google scholar
İnce, M. (2001). Devlet Borçları ve Türkiye. Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi. google scholar
Kowalewski, D. (1989). Global Debt Crises in Structural-Cyclical Perspective: 1791-1984. In W. P. Avery & D. P. Rapkin (Eds.), Markets, Politics, and Change in the Global Political Economy (pp. 5784). International Political Economy Yearbook, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers. google scholar
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Lenin, V. I. (1950). Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, Moskova, Foreign Languages Publishing House. google scholar
Lipson, C. (1991). International Debt and National Security: Comparing Victorian Britain and Postwar America. In B. Eichengreen & P. H. Lindert (Eds.), The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective (pp. 189-226). London, The MIT Press. google scholar
Luxemburg, R. (2003). The Accumulation of Capital. Londra ve New York, Routledge. google scholar
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Marx, K. (2011). Kapital Cilt: I: Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi. Yordam Kitap, İstanbul. google scholar
Mbaye, S., M., Moreno-Badia, M., & Chae, K. (2018). Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources. IMF Working Paper 18/111, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. google scholar
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Özatay, F. (1995). 1994 Krizinden Alınacak Dersler: Kamu İç Borç Yönetiminde Yapılan Yanlışlıklar ve Güven Bunalımı. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 10(109), s. 17-33. google scholar
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
Roos, J. E. (2019). Why Not Default?: The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
Suter, C., & Pfister, U. (1989). Global Debt Cycles and the Role of Political Regimes. In W. P. Avery & D. P. Rapkin (Eds.), Markets, Politics, and Change in the Global Political Economy (pp. 17-55). International Political Economy Yearbook, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers. google scholar
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Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?
Çevre ülkelerin borç krizleri üzerine hâkim görüş, bu ekonomilerin ağırlıklı olarak iç dinamiklerinden kaynaklı şoklara maruz kaldığı ve temerrütlerin kendine özgü bir yapıya sahip olduğu şeklindedir. Ne var ki, finans sermayesinin gelişimine paralel olarak çevre ülkelerdeki borç krizlerinin çoğu; merkez ülkelerdeki dinamikler tarafından şekillenen sistematik bir yapıya sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, söz konusu yapıyı borç dalgaları üzerinden araştırmak ve bu dalgaların ekonomi politik dinamiklerine ışık tutmaktır. Bunun için Türkiye’deki borçlanma süreçleri tarihsel bir perspektiften masaya yatırılmıştır. Bu analizde merkez ülkelerdeki faiz oranları, Türkiye’deki borç krizlerinin ana belirleyeni olarak tespit edilmiştir. Dünya sahnesinde hegemonik bir gücün varlığı ise borç dalgalarının seyrini belirleyen temel politik etken olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Aynı zamanda borç krizinin belirleyenlerinin araştırıldığı ampirik analizde; faiz oranları, yüksek enflasyon, GSYH büyümesi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların GSYH’ye oranı ve kısa vadeli borçların rezervlere oranı temel dinamikler olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, dış borcun sürdürülebilirliği ve Türkiye gibi ağır borçlu bir ekonominin tekrarlayan borç krizlerinden kaçınmasının mümkün olup olmadığı konusunda değişen görüşler tartışılmaktadır.
Amin, S. (1991). Eşitsiz Gelişme: Çevre Kapitalizminin Toplumsal Biçimleri Üzerine Deneme, (A. Kotil, Çev.). İstanbul: Arba Yayınları. google scholar
Annual Report of the Council of the Corporation of Foreign Bondholders. (1896). For the Year 1895, London: Councilhouse. google scholar
Balkan, N. (1994). Kapitalizm ve borç krizi. Ankara: Bağlam Yayınları. google scholar
Bayoumi, T., & Bordo, M. D. (1998). Getting pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 gold resumptions. Oxford Economic Papers, 50(1), 122-149. google scholar
Beenstock, M. (1984). The World Economy in Transition. London, Allen and Unwin. google scholar
Birdal, M. (1999). Uluslararası Borç Krizi ve Çevre Ülkelerinde Yapısal Dönüşüm (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul. google scholar
Birdal, M. (2010). The Political Economy of Ottoman Public Debt: Insolvency and European Financial Control in the Late Nineteenth Century. Londra ve New York, IB Tauris Publishers. google scholar
Bukharin, N. (1987). Imperialism and World Economy, Londra, Merlin Press. google scholar
Burns, A., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. New York, National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
Celasun, O. (1998). The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey. Policy, Research Working Paper WPS 1913, Washington, DC, The World Bank. google scholar
Chadha, J. S., Janssen, N., & Nolan, C. (2000). An Examination of UK Business Cycle Fluctuations, 1871-1997. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Supplementary Paper. google scholar
Eaton, J., & Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289-309. google scholar
Frank, A. G. (1984). Can the debt bomb be defused?, World Policy Journal, 1(4), 723-743. google scholar
Gordon, D. (1989). The Global Economy: New Edifice or Crumbling Foundation?, New Left Review, 168, 24-65. google scholar
Hilferding, R. (1981). Finance Capital: A Study of the Latest Phase of Capitalist Development. Londra, Boston ve Henley, Routledge & Kegan Paul. google scholar
Hobson, J. A. (1961). Imperialism: A study. Londra, George Allen & Unwin. google scholar
Homer, S., & Sylla, R. (2005). A History of Interest Rates. 4.bs., New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
IMF (2000, 09) The World Economic Outlook Database, (Çevrimiçi), https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/weo/2000/02/data/#top. google scholar
Imlah, A. H. (1958). Economic Elements in the Pax Britannica: Studies in British Foreign Trade in the Nineteenth Century. Cambridge, Harvard University Press. google scholar
İnce, M. (2001). Devlet Borçları ve Türkiye. Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi. google scholar
Kowalewski, D. (1989). Global Debt Crises in Structural-Cyclical Perspective: 1791-1984. In W. P. Avery & D. P. Rapkin (Eds.), Markets, Politics, and Change in the Global Political Economy (pp. 5784). International Political Economy Yearbook, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers. google scholar
Lardaro, L. (1993). Applied Econometrics. New York, Harper Collins College Publishers. google scholar
Lenin, V. I. (1950). Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, Moskova, Foreign Languages Publishing House. google scholar
Lipson, C. (1991). International Debt and National Security: Comparing Victorian Britain and Postwar America. In B. Eichengreen & P. H. Lindert (Eds.), The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective (pp. 189-226). London, The MIT Press. google scholar
Luxemburg, R. (2003). The Accumulation of Capital. Londra ve New York, Routledge. google scholar
Marichal, C. (1989). A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America: From Indipendence to the Great Depression 1820-1930. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
Marx, K. (1997). Kapital Cilt: III Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi. Ankara, Sol Yayınları. google scholar
Marx, K. (2011). Kapital Cilt: I: Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi. Yordam Kitap, İstanbul. google scholar
Mbaye, S., M., Moreno-Badia, M., & Chae, K. (2018). Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources. IMF Working Paper 18/111, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. google scholar
Mensch, G. (1978). Stalemate in Technology. Cambridge, Massachusetts, Ballinger Publishing Co. google scholar
NBER (2019, 14. 09). US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, (Çevrimiçi), https://www.nber. org/cycles/cyclesmain.html. google scholar
NIESR (2019, 14. 09). The UK Business Cycle-Dating and Implications,” (Çevrimiçi), https://www. niesr.ac.uk/uk-business-cycle-%E2%80%93-dating-and-implications. google scholar
OECD (2018, 24. 11). Total Official and Private Flows (indicator), (Çevrimiçi) https://data.oecd.org/ drf/total-official-and-private-flows.htm. google scholar
Onuk, P. (2019). Tarihsel Perspektiften Dünya Ekonomisinde Borçlanma Dalgaları ve Ekonomi Politik Dinamikleri. (Doktora Tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul. google scholar
Özatay, F. (1995). 1994 Krizinden Alınacak Dersler: Kamu İç Borç Yönetiminde Yapılan Yanlışlıklar ve Güven Bunalımı. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 10(109), s. 17-33. google scholar
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
Roos, J. E. (2019). Why Not Default?: The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
Suter, C., & Pfister, U. (1989). Global Debt Cycles and the Role of Political Regimes. In W. P. Avery & D. P. Rapkin (Eds.), Markets, Politics, and Change in the Global Political Economy (pp. 17-55). International Political Economy Yearbook, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers. google scholar
Suter, C. (1992). Debt Cycles in the World Economy: Foreign Loans, Financial Crises, and Debt Settlements, 1820-1990. San Francisco, Westview Press. google scholar
The World Bank (1979). World Debt Tables: External Debt of Developing Countries 1970-79, Washington, DC, The World Bank. google scholar
The World Bank: (1990). World Debt Tables: External Debt of Developing Countries 1989-90, Washington, DC, The World Bank, (Çevrimiçi), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/810821468762578665/World-debt-tables-1989-90-external-debt-of-developing-countries-second-supplement. google scholar
Tunçer, A. C. (2015). Sovereign Debt and International Financial Control: The Middle East and the Balkans, 1870-1914. Hampshire, Palgrave Macmillan. google scholar
Türel, O. (2010). Türkiye’de 1994, 2001 ve 2008-9 Ekonomik Krizlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 21(75), s. 22-75. google scholar
Wallerstein, I. (1999). The End of the World As We Know It, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press. google scholar
Wallerstein, I. (2015b). Modern Dünya Sistemi: Avrupa Dünya Ekonomisinin Pekiştirilmesi ve Merkantalizm, 1600-1750, Çev. Latif Boyacı, 7. bs., İstanbul, Yarın Yayınları. google scholar
Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı, 2. bs., İstanbul, Beta Yayıncılık. google scholar
Onuk, P. (2022). Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(1), 175-209. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657
AMA
Onuk P. Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Haziran 2022;72(1):175-209. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657
Chicago
Onuk, Parla. “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72, sy. 1 (Haziran 2022): 175-209. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657.
EndNote
Onuk P (01 Haziran 2022) Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72 1 175–209.
IEEE
P. Onuk, “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 72, sy. 1, ss. 175–209, 2022, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657.
ISNAD
Onuk, Parla. “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72/1 (Haziran 2022), 175-209. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657.
JAMA
Onuk P. Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2022;72:175–209.
MLA
Onuk, Parla. “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 72, sy. 1, 2022, ss. 175-09, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657.
Vancouver
Onuk P. Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2022;72(1):175-209.