BRICS Ülkelerinde Ticaret: Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2008 küresel finansal krizi, ABD-Çin ticaret savaşları, Covid-19 pandemisi gibi belirsizlikleri artırıcı gelişmelerin, BRICS ülkeleride birlik içi ticarete etkileri irdelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Söz konusu gelişmeler, BRICS ülkeleri ticareti ve yatırımları üzerinde ciddi etkiler doğurmuştur. Bu amaçla 2000-2020 dönemi gümrük tarifeleri ve ihracat değişkenlerine ait yıllık veriler bağlamında, değişkenler arasındaki eş bütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund ve Edgerton yaklaşımı ile yapısal kırılma altında ve yine seriler arasındaki Granger nedensellik ilişkisi ise asimetrik nedensellik testi ile panel veri modelleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Eş bütünleşme sonuçlarına göre ilk olarak seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu yani serilerin birlikte hareket ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Eş bütünleşme ilişkisindeki yapısal kırılma tarihleri 2008 finansal krize, krizin etkili olduğu yıllara ve ABD-Çin ticari geriliminin yaşandığı 2018-2020 dönemine tekabül etmektedir. Diğer yandan Granger nedensellik testi değişkenler arasında gümrük tarifelerinden ihracata doğru zıt yönlü (işaretli) nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı hakkında yeterli delil sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• International Trade
• Tariff
• Panel Data Analysis

Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks

Öz

This article attempts to examine the recent developments that have amplified the consequences of uncertainty regarding trade between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries under global economic turmoil such as occurred in the 2008 financial crisis and trade wars sparked by the USA and the COVID-19 pandemic. These events severely affected intra-BRICS trade and investment. For this purpose, we employed the Westerlund and Edgerton cointegration approach to check for cointegration under structural breaks and the procedure for the asymmetric Granger non-causality test to assess the causal relationship between the custom tariff and export variables of BRICS countries with regard to the panel data methodology for the 2000-2020 period using annual data. The empirical results for cointegration indicate the presence of a long-term relationship; in other words, they are seen to move together under investigation. The estimated breakpoints correspond with 2008 and the ongoing financial turmoil and with the 2018-2020 period and the rising trade disputes between USA and China. In addition, the Granger non-causality test provides enough evidence to show opposite directions (signs) for the causal links between the variables that run from tariffs to exports for BRICS countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• International trade
• Tariff
• Panel data analysis

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