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Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks

Yıl 2022, , 653 - 687, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747

Öz

This article attempts to examine the recent developments that have amplified the consequences of uncertainty regarding trade between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries under global economic turmoil such as occurred in the 2008 financial crisis and trade wars sparked by the USA and the COVID-19 pandemic. These events severely affected intra-BRICS trade and investment. For this purpose, we employed the Westerlund and Edgerton cointegration approach to check for cointegration under structural breaks and the procedure for the asymmetric Granger non-causality test to assess the causal relationship between the custom tariff and export variables of BRICS countries with regard to the panel data methodology for the 2000-2020 period using annual data. The empirical results for cointegration indicate the presence of a long-term relationship; in other words, they are seen to move together under investigation. The estimated breakpoints correspond with 2008 and the ongoing financial turmoil and with the 2018-2020 period and the rising trade disputes between USA and China. In addition, the Granger non-causality test provides enough evidence to show opposite directions (signs) for the causal links between the variables that run from tariffs to exports for BRICS countries.

Destekleyen Kurum

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Proje Numarası

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Teşekkür

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Kaynakça

  • Aggrawal, A. (2004). Impact of tariff reduction on exports: A quantitative assessment of Indian exports to USA. Indian Council For International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 120. google scholar
  • Agosin, M. R. (1999). Trade and growth in Chile. CEPAL Review, 1999(68), 79-100. doi:10.18356/18ba57ab-en google scholar
  • Amiti, M., Redding, S. J. & Weinstein, D. (2019). The impact of the 2018 trade war on USA prices and welfare. NBER Working Papers, 25672. doi:10.3386/w25672 google scholar
  • Bagwell, K. & Staiger, R. (2001). Reciprocity, non-discrimination and preferential agreements in the multilateral trading system. European Journal of Political Economy, 17 (2), 281-325. doi:10.1016/ s0176-2680(01)00029-5 google scholar
  • Bai, J., & Kao, C. (2006). Chapter 1 on the estimation and inference of a panel Cointegration model with cross-sectional dependence. Panel Data Econometrics - Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications, 3-30. doi:10.1016/s0573-8555(06)74001-9 google scholar
  • Bai, J. & Ng, S. (2004). A panic attack on unit roots and co-integration. Econometrica, 72(4), 11271178. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00528.x google scholar
  • Becker, R., Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x google scholar
  • Becker, T., & Mauro, P. (2006). Output drops and the shocks that matter. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.926227. google scholar
  • Berthou, A. & Stumpner, S. (2020). Quantifying the impact of the US-China trade war on exports. https://www.freit.org/WorkingPapers/Papers/TradePolicyMultilateral/FREIT1674.pdf. google scholar
  • Bleaney, M.F. (1999), Price and monetary dynamics under alternative exchange rate regimes. IMF Working Papers, 99(67),1. doi:10.5089/9781451848885.001 google scholar
  • Bowen, L. (2015). Rethinking the optimal tariff theory. Chicago Policy Review https:// chicagopolicyreview.org/2015/01/15/rethinking-the-optimal-tariff-theory/#:~:text=The%20 optimal%20 tariff%20theory%20argues,buyer%20from%20many%20competing%20suppliers google scholar
  • Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification tests in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. google scholar
  • Breitung, J. & Pesaran H. (2005). Unit roots and co-integration in panels. Economic Studies Discussion Paper, Series 1, No 42/2005, ISBN 3-86558-105-106. google scholar
  • Broda, C., Limao, N. & Weinstein, D. (2006). Optimal tariffs: The evidence. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 12033, http://www.nber.org/papers/w12033. google scholar
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  • Czech, K., Wielechowski, M., Kotyza,P., Benesova, I. & Laputkova, A. (2020). Shaking stability: COVID-19 impact on the visegrad group countries and financial markets. Sustainability, 12(15), 6282. doi:10.3390/su12156282 google scholar
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  • Day, M., Khan, M. & Oshikawa, M. (2001). Tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade and economic development in Bangladesh. Journal of World Trade, 35(2), 253-273. doi:10.54648/337900 google scholar
  • Eberhardt, M. & Teal F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. google scholar
  • Eichengreen, B., & Irwin, D. A. (2010). The slide to protectionism in the Great Depression: Who succumbed and why? The Journal of Economic History, 70(4), 871-897. doi:10.1017/ s0022050710000756 google scholar
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  • Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012b). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey-Fuller type unit root tests. Econ. Letters. 117, 196-199. google scholar
  • Evenett, S. J. (2009). What can be learned from crisis-era protectionism? An initial assessment. Business and Politics, 11(3), 1-26. doi:10.2202/1469-3569.1287 google scholar
  • Evenett, S. & Martin, W. (2010). A snapshot of contemporary protectionism: How important are the murkier forms of trade discrimination. Econ Stor, ARTNeT Working Paper Series, No. 83. google scholar
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  • Fouda, R. A. N. (2012). Protectionism and free trade: a country’s glory or doom? International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 3(5), 351-355. doi:10.7763/ijtef.2012.v3.226 google scholar
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  • Granger, C.W. & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden co-integration. Department of Economics Working Paper, University of California, San Diego, 2002 (02), 1-49. google scholar
  • Gutierrez Chacon, E., & Machuca, C. M. (2021). The effect of tariffs on Spanish goods exports. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3852904 google scholar
  • Hatemi-J, A., Ajmi, A. N., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2015). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing. Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1117052 google scholar
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447456. doi:10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x google scholar
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  • Lau, L. (2020). The impacts of the trade war and the covid-19 epidemic on China-USA economic relations. The China Review, 20(4), 1-37. google scholar
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BRICS Ülkelerinde Ticaret: Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2022, , 653 - 687, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2008 küresel finansal krizi, ABD-Çin ticaret savaşları, Covid-19 pandemisi gibi belirsizlikleri artırıcı gelişmelerin, BRICS ülkeleride birlik içi ticarete etkileri irdelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Söz konusu gelişmeler, BRICS ülkeleri ticareti ve yatırımları üzerinde ciddi etkiler doğurmuştur. Bu amaçla 2000-2020 dönemi gümrük tarifeleri ve ihracat değişkenlerine ait yıllık veriler bağlamında, değişkenler arasındaki eş bütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund ve Edgerton yaklaşımı ile yapısal kırılma altında ve yine seriler arasındaki Granger nedensellik ilişkisi ise asimetrik nedensellik testi ile panel veri modelleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Eş bütünleşme sonuçlarına göre ilk olarak seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu yani serilerin birlikte hareket ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Eş bütünleşme ilişkisindeki yapısal kırılma tarihleri 2008 finansal krize, krizin etkili olduğu yıllara ve ABD-Çin ticari geriliminin yaşandığı 2018-2020 dönemine tekabül etmektedir. Diğer yandan Granger nedensellik testi değişkenler arasında gümrük tarifelerinden ihracata doğru zıt yönlü (işaretli) nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı hakkında yeterli delil sunmaktadır.

Proje Numarası

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Kaynakça

  • Aggrawal, A. (2004). Impact of tariff reduction on exports: A quantitative assessment of Indian exports to USA. Indian Council For International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 120. google scholar
  • Agosin, M. R. (1999). Trade and growth in Chile. CEPAL Review, 1999(68), 79-100. doi:10.18356/18ba57ab-en google scholar
  • Amiti, M., Redding, S. J. & Weinstein, D. (2019). The impact of the 2018 trade war on USA prices and welfare. NBER Working Papers, 25672. doi:10.3386/w25672 google scholar
  • Bagwell, K. & Staiger, R. (2001). Reciprocity, non-discrimination and preferential agreements in the multilateral trading system. European Journal of Political Economy, 17 (2), 281-325. doi:10.1016/ s0176-2680(01)00029-5 google scholar
  • Bai, J., & Kao, C. (2006). Chapter 1 on the estimation and inference of a panel Cointegration model with cross-sectional dependence. Panel Data Econometrics - Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications, 3-30. doi:10.1016/s0573-8555(06)74001-9 google scholar
  • Bai, J. & Ng, S. (2004). A panic attack on unit roots and co-integration. Econometrica, 72(4), 11271178. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00528.x google scholar
  • Becker, R., Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x google scholar
  • Becker, T., & Mauro, P. (2006). Output drops and the shocks that matter. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.926227. google scholar
  • Berthou, A. & Stumpner, S. (2020). Quantifying the impact of the US-China trade war on exports. https://www.freit.org/WorkingPapers/Papers/TradePolicyMultilateral/FREIT1674.pdf. google scholar
  • Bleaney, M.F. (1999), Price and monetary dynamics under alternative exchange rate regimes. IMF Working Papers, 99(67),1. doi:10.5089/9781451848885.001 google scholar
  • Bowen, L. (2015). Rethinking the optimal tariff theory. Chicago Policy Review https:// chicagopolicyreview.org/2015/01/15/rethinking-the-optimal-tariff-theory/#:~:text=The%20 optimal%20 tariff%20theory%20argues,buyer%20from%20many%20competing%20suppliers google scholar
  • Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification tests in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. google scholar
  • Breitung, J. & Pesaran H. (2005). Unit roots and co-integration in panels. Economic Studies Discussion Paper, Series 1, No 42/2005, ISBN 3-86558-105-106. google scholar
  • Broda, C., Limao, N. & Weinstein, D. (2006). Optimal tariffs: The evidence. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 12033, http://www.nber.org/papers/w12033. google scholar
  • Chen, J. & Scott, G. (2021). Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), https://www. investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp. google scholar
  • Clarke, R. and Kirkpatrick, C. (1992), ‘Trade Policy Reform and Economic Performance in Developing Countries: Assessing the Empirical Evidence’, in R. Adhikari, C. Kirkpatrick and J. Weiss (eds.), Industrial and Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries, Manchester: Manchester University Press, pp. 56-73. google scholar
  • Czech, K., Wielechowski, M., Kotyza,P., Benesova, I. & Laputkova, A. (2020). Shaking stability: COVID-19 impact on the visegrad group countries and financial markets. Sustainability, 12(15), 6282. doi:10.3390/su12156282 google scholar
  • databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators google scholar
  • Day, M., Khan, M. & Oshikawa, M. (2001). Tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade and economic development in Bangladesh. Journal of World Trade, 35(2), 253-273. doi:10.54648/337900 google scholar
  • Eberhardt, M. & Teal F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. google scholar
  • Eichengreen, B., & Irwin, D. A. (2010). The slide to protectionism in the Great Depression: Who succumbed and why? The Journal of Economic History, 70(4), 871-897. doi:10.1017/ s0022050710000756 google scholar
  • Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012a). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin Economics and Statistics, 74, 574-599. google scholar
  • Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012b). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey-Fuller type unit root tests. Econ. Letters. 117, 196-199. google scholar
  • Evenett, S. J. (2009). What can be learned from crisis-era protectionism? An initial assessment. Business and Politics, 11(3), 1-26. doi:10.2202/1469-3569.1287 google scholar
  • Evenett, S. & Martin, W. (2010). A snapshot of contemporary protectionism: How important are the murkier forms of trade discrimination. Econ Stor, ARTNeT Working Paper Series, No. 83. google scholar
  • Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2019). The return to protectionism. NBER Working Papers, 25638. doi:10.3386/w25638 google scholar
  • Fouda, R. A. N. (2012). Protectionism and free trade: a country’s glory or doom? International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 3(5), 351-355. doi:10.7763/ijtef.2012.v3.226 google scholar
  • Funke, N, Granziera, E. & Imam, P. (2008). Terms of trade shocks and economic recovery. IMF Working Paper, African Department, WP/08/36. google scholar
  • Gallant, A. (1981). On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form. Journal of Econometrics, 15(2), 211-245. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(81)90115-9 google scholar
  • Granger, C.W. & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden co-integration. Department of Economics Working Paper, University of California, San Diego, 2002 (02), 1-49. google scholar
  • Gutierrez Chacon, E., & Machuca, C. M. (2021). The effect of tariffs on Spanish goods exports. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3852904 google scholar
  • Hatemi-J, A., Ajmi, A. N., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2015). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing. Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1117052 google scholar
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447456. doi:10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x google scholar
  • Hayakawa, K. & Mukunoki. H. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains. The Developing Economies, 59, 154-177. google scholar
  • Hill, E. W. & Wolman, H. (2012). Economic shocks and regional economic resilience, affiliation: Building resilient regions. Institute for Government Studies, University of California, Berkley, January 2012. google scholar
  • Hooijmaaijers, B. (2021). The BRICS countries’ bilateral economic relations, 2009 to 2019: Between rhetoric and reality. SAGE Open, 11(4), 215824402110541. doi:10.1177/21582440211054128 google scholar
  • IMF Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics, Data Querry https://data. imf.org/?sk=7A51304B-6426-40C0-83DD-CA473CA1FD52&sId=1390030341854 google scholar
  • Izotov, D. & Tochkov, K. (2020). Trade relations between the Russian Far East and Northeast Asia: Assessment of institutional factors. In book: Proceeding of the International Science and Technology Conference Far East Con 2019, 177-188. doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-2244-4_15. google scholar
  • Javier, B., Lucio, J.J. & Crespo E. R. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses. Plos One, 16(10): e0258356. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258356 google scholar
  • Jenkins, R. (1996). Trade liberalization and export performance in Bolivia. Development and Change, 27 (4), 693-716. google scholar
  • Joshi, V. & Little, I. M. (1996). India’s economic reforms 1991-2001. Oxford University Press, Print ISBN-13: 9780198290780, doi:10.1093/0198290780.001.0001. google scholar
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379. doi:10.1016/s0304-4076(02)00202-6 google scholar
  • Kapustina, L. Lipkova, L. Silin, Y. & Drevalev, A. (2020). US-China trade war: causes and outcomes. SHS Web of Conferences, 73, 01012 (2020), IES-2019. google scholar
  • Kiyota, K. (2022). The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network. Journal of Asian Economics, 78, 101419. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101419 google scholar
  • Lau, L. (2020). The impacts of the trade war and the covid-19 epidemic on China-USA economic relations. The China Review, 20(4), 1-37. google scholar
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. (2003). Minimum LM unit root tests with two structural breaks. Rev. Econ. Stat. 85, 1082-1089. google scholar
  • Lee, C., Wu, J. L. & Yang, L. (2015). A Simple panel unit-root test with smooth breaks in the presence of a multifactor error structure. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 78(3), 365-393. doi:10.1111/obes.12109 google scholar
  • Luintel, K. B., & Khan, M. (2009). Heterogeneous ideas production and endogenous growth: an empirical investigation. Canadian Journal of Economics, 42(3), 1 176-1205. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01543.x google scholar
  • Mankiv, G. (2018). Principles of economics. 8 th. Edition, Cengage Learning, SBN 13: 978-1-30558512-6, Print Number: 01, Print Year: 2016. google scholar
  • MacGregor P. & Hâla, M. (2021). CSR Unconscious Consumption by Generation Z in the COVID-19 era, responsible hereticsnot paying CSR Bonus? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(18), 390. doi:10.3390/jrfm14080390 google scholar
  • Orloff, J. & Bloom J. (2014). Covariance and correlation, introduction to probability and statistics. MIT Open Course Ware, https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2014/readings/MIT18_05S14_Reading7b.pdf google scholar
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Toplam 68 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Alper Yılmaz 0000-0002-1253-7097

Proje Numarası -
Yayımlanma Tarihi 18 Ocak 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Nisan 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022

Kaynak Göster

APA Yılmaz, A. (2023). Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(2), 653-687. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747
AMA Yılmaz A. Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Ocak 2023;72(2):653-687. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747
Chicago Yılmaz, Alper. “Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis With Structural Breaks”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72, sy. 2 (Ocak 2023): 653-87. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747.
EndNote Yılmaz A (01 Ocak 2023) Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72 2 653–687.
IEEE A. Yılmaz, “Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 72, sy. 2, ss. 653–687, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747.
ISNAD Yılmaz, Alper. “Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis With Structural Breaks”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72/2 (Ocak 2023), 653-687. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747.
JAMA Yılmaz A. Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72:653–687.
MLA Yılmaz, Alper. “Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis With Structural Breaks”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 72, sy. 2, 2023, ss. 653-87, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096747.
Vancouver Yılmaz A. Intra-BRICS Trade: A Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72(2):653-87.