The Possible Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on Turkey’s Foreign Trade within the Scope of the Gravity Model: A Modes of Transportation Approach

Öz

The Belt and Road Initiative is a project China presented in 2013 to improve intercontinental connections and cooperation. The Belt and Road Project connects East Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, Africa, and Europe by both land and sea and aims to establish partnerships between the countries on the Belt Road, as well as to realize balanced and sustainable development in these countries. Located in the center of the continental juncture of Asia, Europe, and Africa, Turkey has an important place in China’s Belt and Road Initiative due to its geographical and geopolitical location. The aim of this study is to estimate the effect of shortening the distance among countries within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative with regard to Turkey’s foreign trade using the Gravity Model. This study primarily reviews the literature regarding studies on Belt and Road Initiative, and regional integration in this context. The study calculates the effect of the variable of distance on Turkey’s foreign trade with respect to modes of transportation and estimates the change in Turkey’s foreign trade with the countries within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative. When evaluating the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Turkey’s foreign trade, the study concludes that, although certain acquisitions are gained in exports, the BRI will have a direct negative impact on the foreign trade deficit due to imports being more effective.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Belt and Road Initiative
• Mode of transportation
• Gravity model
• Foreign trade

Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı

Öz

Kuşak ve Yol Projesi Çin tarafından 2013 yılında kıtalararası ölçekte bağlantıları ve iş birliğini geliştirmek üzere sunulmuş bir projedir. Kuşak ve Yol Projesi hem karadan hem de denizden Doğu Asya, Orta Asya, Batı Asya, Afrika ve Avrupa’nın birbirine bağlanmasını; “Kuşak-Yol” üzerindeki ülkeler arasında ortaklıklar kurmayı ve bu ülkelerde dengeli ve sürdürülebilir kalkınmalar gerçekleştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Asya-Avrupa-Afrika kıtalarının ortasında yer alan Türkiye, coğrafi ve jeopolitik konumu nedeniyle Çin’in “Kuşak –Yol” projesinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Kuşak ve Yol Projesi girişimi kapsamında yer alan ülkelerin mesafe kısalmalarının Türkiye dış ticaretine etkisinin Çekim Modeli ile tahminidir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada öncelikli olarak Kuşak ve Yol Projesi özelinde ve bölgesel entegrasyon üzerine yapılan çalışmalara dair literatür taranmıştır. Ulaşım modlarına göre mesafe değişkeninin Türkiye’nin dış ticaretine etkisi hesaplanıp Kuşak ve Yol Projesi kapsamındaki ülkeler özelinde Türkiye’nin dış ticaretteki değişimi tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada Kuşak ve Yol Projesi projesinin Türkiye dış ticaretine etkisi değerlendirildiğinde; ihracatta belirli edinimler kazanılsa da ithalatın daha etkili olması nedeniyle dış ticaret açığı üzerinde doğrudan negatif etkide bulunacağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuşak ve Yol Projesi
• Ulaşım modları
• Çekim modeli
• Dış ticaret

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