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Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye

Yıl 2022, , 507 - 541, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155

Öz

The aim of this article is to examine effects of wealth, personal income distribution, and households’ and firms’ debt stock on aggregate demand and its components in Türkiye and characterize its demand regime. For this purpose, we examined the Turkish economy over the 1988-2019 period within a post-Keynesian framework. Our findings suggested that the proxy variable for wealth has a small but positive effect on consumption, but no effect on investment. We observed that of four personal income distribution indicators employed in econometric investigations, only one of them had some minor effect on consumption but none of them had any significant effect on investment. Household debt, probably due to mortgages, turned out to have a positive effect on total investment expenditures, which also consists of newly constructed residences, but no effect on consumption expenditures. Our econometric estimations also pointed out that business debt has a negative effect on investment. The synthesis of findings suggested that the demand regime is profit-led in Türkiye. However, calculation of growth contributions of variables indicate that functional income distribution has a minor role, but wealth and debt variables have a major role in determination of aggregate demand.

Teşekkür

I would like to thank A. A. Elbakyan for her invaluable contributions.

Kaynakça

  • Akyüz, Y., & Boratav, K. (2003). The making of the Turkish financial crisis. World Development, 31(9), 1549-1566. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00108-6 google scholar
  • Arslan, H. (2006). State, labor and crisis: the 1989-1995 period in Turkey (Master’s thesis, Middle East Technical University). Retrieved from http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12607284/index.pdf google scholar
  • Barbosa-Filho, N. H., & Taylor, L. (2006). Distributive and demand cycles in the US economy—a structuralist Goodwin model. Metroeconomica, 57(3), 389-411. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2006.00250.x google scholar
  • Bhaduri, A., & Marglin, S. (1990). Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4), 375-393. https://doi. org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035141 google scholar
  • Blecker, R. A., Cauvel, M., & Kim, Y. K. (2022). Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(2), 391-420. https://doi. org/10.1093/cje/beab052 google scholar
  • Bowles, S., & Boyer, R. (1995). Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation. In G.A. Epstein & H.M. Gintis (Eds.), Macroeconomic policy after the conservative era (pp. 143-71). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Boratav, K. (2016). The Turkish bourgeoisie under neoliberalism. Research and Policy on Turkey, 1(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/23760818.2015.1099778 google scholar
  • Boratav, K. (2018). Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908-2015 [An economic history of Türkiye 1908-2015]. Ankara: İmge Kitabevi. google scholar
  • Boratav, K. (2022). Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav ile Söyleşi: AKP, Türkiye ve Ekonomik Liberalizm [Interview with Professor Korkut Boratav: AKP, Türkiye and Economic Liberalism, conducted by Oğuz Oyan]. Dayanışma Forumu, 6 (September 2021), 3-8. Retrieved from https:// dayanismameclisi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DF-sayi-6.pdf google scholar
  • Boratav, K., Bulutay, T., Yavuz, E. G. E., Türel, O., Türeli, R. A., & Uygur, E. (2018). Yeni Ulusal Gelir Serileri Üzerine Gözlem ve Değerlendirmeler [Observations and Evaluations on the New National Income Series]. Ekonomi-tek, 7(2), 61-70. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/ pub/ekonomitek/issue/52659/694070 google scholar
  • Boratav, K., Yeldan, E., & Köse, A. H. (2000). Globalization, distribution and social policy: Turkey, 1980-1998. CEPA and The New School for Social Research, Working Paper Series, 20(2000), 1131 14. Retrieved from http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/scepa/publications/ workingpapers/2000/cepa0120.pdf google scholar
  • Bölükoğlu, A. (2019). Türkiye’nin talep rejimi: Post-keynesyen ekonometrik bir analiz [Demand Regime of Turkey: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis]. Sosyoekonomi, 27(42), 163-180. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.04.09 google scholar
  • BRSA (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency of Turkey) (2017-2022). Turkish Banking Sector Main Indicators Reports, all issues from September 2017 to March 2022. Retrieved from https:// www.bddk.org.tr/Veri/Detay/171 in September 2022 google scholar
  • BSB (Independent Social Scientists) (2015). AKP’li Yıllarda Emeğin Durumu [The conditions of labor during the years of AKP]. İstanbul, Türkiye: Yordam. google scholar
  • Carvalho, L., & Rezai, A. (2016). Personal income inequality and aggregate demand. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(2), 491-505. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu085 google scholar
  • Cömert, H., Çelik, D., & Şengül, Z. O. (2022). AKP dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinin performansı: Karşılaştırmalı bir analiz [Performance of the Turkish economy during the AKP period: A comparative analysis]. Metu Studies in Development, 49(June), 1-59. Retrieved from https:// open.metu.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11511/98575/1253-7510-2-PB.pdf google scholar
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  • Duman, A. (2015). Türkiye’de gelir eşitsizliği: gerçeği aramak [Income inequality in Türkiye: Quest for the truth], Unpublished Article. google scholar
  • Dymski, G. (2010). Why the subprime crisis is different: a Minskyian approach. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(2), 239-255. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep054 google scholar
  • Ekzen, N. (2016). Türkiye Kısa İktisat Tarihi 1946’dan 2008’e. [A Short Economic History of Türkiye from 1946 to 2008], Ankara: ODTÜ Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Erol, I. (2019). Financial transformation and housing finance in Turkey. In G.L. Yalman, T. Marois & A.R. Güngen (Eds.), The political economy of financial transformation in Turkey (pp. 243-268). New York, NY: Routledge. google scholar
  • Fazzari, S., Ferri, P. and Greenberg, E. (2008). Cash flow, investment, and Keynes- Minsky cycles. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 65(3), 555-572. https://doi.org/10.1016Zj. jebo.2005.11.007 google scholar
  • Frank, R. H. (1985). The demand for unobservable and other nonpositional goods. The American Economic Review, 75(1), 101-116. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1812706 google scholar
  • Frank, R., Levine, A., & Dijk, O. (2014). Expenditure cascades. Review of Behavioral Economics, 1(1-2), 55-73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/105.00000003 google scholar
  • Hartwig, J. (2014). Testing the Bhaduri-Marglin model with OECD panel data. International Review of Applied Economics, 28(4), 419-435. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2014.896881 google scholar Hein, E. (2014). Distribution and growth after Keynes: A Post-Keynesian guide. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. google scholar
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  • Hein, E., & Tarassow, A. (2010). Distribution, aggregate demand and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(4), 727-754. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep066 google scholar
  • Hein, E., & Vogel, L. (2008). Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(3), 479-511. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bem047 google scholar
  • Jetin, B., & Kurt, O. E. (2016). Functional income distribution and growth in Thailand: A post Keynesian econometric analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 39(3), 334-360. https://doi. org/10.1080/01603477.2016.1202774 google scholar
  • Jetin, B., & Ortiz, L.R. (2020). Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 43(3), 341-366. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2 020.1774392 google scholar
  • Kara^imen, E. (2014). Financialization in Turkey: The case of consumer debt. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 16(2), 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2014.910393 google scholar Kepenek, Y. (2011). Development & Structure of the Turkish economy. Ankara: METU Press. google scholar
  • Kiefer, D., & Rada, C. (2015). Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(5), 1333-1350. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu040 google scholar
  • Kim, Y. K., Setterfield, M., & Mei, Y. (2015). Aggregate consumption and debt accumulation: an empirical examination of US household behaviour. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(1), 93112. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu029 google scholar
  • Kohli, V. (2018). Functional income distribution and effective demand in India: An applied post Keynesian model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 41(3), 399-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/0 1603477.2018.1431795 google scholar
  • Kurt, O.E. (2020). Functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity growth in Turkey: A post-Kaleckian analysis. Metroeconomica, 71(4), 734-766. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12300 google scholar
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Borç, Servet, Gelir Dağılımı ve Talep: Türkiye Üzerine Post-Keynesyen Ampirik Bir Çalışma

Yıl 2022, , 507 - 541, 18.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı Türkiye’de servet, kişisel gelir dağılımı ve hanehalkı ve şirket borç stoklarının bütünleşik talep ve bileşenlerinin üzerindeki etkisini incelemek ve ülkenin talep rejimini tespit etmektir. Bu amaçla Türkiye ekonomisinin 1988-2019 dönemini post-Keynesgil bir çerçeve içerisinde inceledik. Bulgularımız, servet için kullanılan vekil değişkenin tüketim üzerinde küçük ama pozitif bir etkisi olduğunu, lakin yatırım üzerinde bir etkisi olmadığını ortaya koydu. Ekonometrik analizde kullanılan dört kişisel gelir dağılımı göstergesinden yalnızca birinin tüketim üzerinde çok küçük bir etkisi olduğunu ve hiçbirinin yatırım üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığını gözlemledik. Hanehalkı borçlarının muhtemelen ipotekler nedeniyle yeni yapılan gayrimenkulleri de içeren yatırım harcamaları üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olduğu, fakat tüketim harcamaları üzerinde hiçbir etkisi olmadığı ortaya çıktı. Ekonometrik tahminlerimiz aynı zamanda işletme borçlarının yatırımlar üzerinde negatif bir etkisi olduğuna işaret etti. Bulgularımızın bireşimi Türkiye’de talep rejiminin kâr-çekişli olduğunu gösterdi. Ancak değişkenlerin büyümeye katkılarının hesabı, bütünleşik talebin belirlenmesinde fonksiyonel gelir dağılımının ikincil, servet ve borç değişkenlerinin ise birincil bir rolü olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Akyüz, Y., & Boratav, K. (2003). The making of the Turkish financial crisis. World Development, 31(9), 1549-1566. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00108-6 google scholar
  • Arslan, H. (2006). State, labor and crisis: the 1989-1995 period in Turkey (Master’s thesis, Middle East Technical University). Retrieved from http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12607284/index.pdf google scholar
  • Barbosa-Filho, N. H., & Taylor, L. (2006). Distributive and demand cycles in the US economy—a structuralist Goodwin model. Metroeconomica, 57(3), 389-411. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2006.00250.x google scholar
  • Bhaduri, A., & Marglin, S. (1990). Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4), 375-393. https://doi. org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035141 google scholar
  • Blecker, R. A., Cauvel, M., & Kim, Y. K. (2022). Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(2), 391-420. https://doi. org/10.1093/cje/beab052 google scholar
  • Bowles, S., & Boyer, R. (1995). Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation. In G.A. Epstein & H.M. Gintis (Eds.), Macroeconomic policy after the conservative era (pp. 143-71). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Boratav, K. (2016). The Turkish bourgeoisie under neoliberalism. Research and Policy on Turkey, 1(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/23760818.2015.1099778 google scholar
  • Boratav, K. (2018). Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908-2015 [An economic history of Türkiye 1908-2015]. Ankara: İmge Kitabevi. google scholar
  • Boratav, K. (2022). Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav ile Söyleşi: AKP, Türkiye ve Ekonomik Liberalizm [Interview with Professor Korkut Boratav: AKP, Türkiye and Economic Liberalism, conducted by Oğuz Oyan]. Dayanışma Forumu, 6 (September 2021), 3-8. Retrieved from https:// dayanismameclisi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DF-sayi-6.pdf google scholar
  • Boratav, K., Bulutay, T., Yavuz, E. G. E., Türel, O., Türeli, R. A., & Uygur, E. (2018). Yeni Ulusal Gelir Serileri Üzerine Gözlem ve Değerlendirmeler [Observations and Evaluations on the New National Income Series]. Ekonomi-tek, 7(2), 61-70. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/ pub/ekonomitek/issue/52659/694070 google scholar
  • Boratav, K., Yeldan, E., & Köse, A. H. (2000). Globalization, distribution and social policy: Turkey, 1980-1998. CEPA and The New School for Social Research, Working Paper Series, 20(2000), 1131 14. Retrieved from http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/scepa/publications/ workingpapers/2000/cepa0120.pdf google scholar
  • Bölükoğlu, A. (2019). Türkiye’nin talep rejimi: Post-keynesyen ekonometrik bir analiz [Demand Regime of Turkey: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis]. Sosyoekonomi, 27(42), 163-180. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.04.09 google scholar
  • BRSA (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency of Turkey) (2017-2022). Turkish Banking Sector Main Indicators Reports, all issues from September 2017 to March 2022. Retrieved from https:// www.bddk.org.tr/Veri/Detay/171 in September 2022 google scholar
  • BSB (Independent Social Scientists) (2015). AKP’li Yıllarda Emeğin Durumu [The conditions of labor during the years of AKP]. İstanbul, Türkiye: Yordam. google scholar
  • Carvalho, L., & Rezai, A. (2016). Personal income inequality and aggregate demand. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(2), 491-505. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu085 google scholar
  • Cömert, H., Çelik, D., & Şengül, Z. O. (2022). AKP dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinin performansı: Karşılaştırmalı bir analiz [Performance of the Turkish economy during the AKP period: A comparative analysis]. Metu Studies in Development, 49(June), 1-59. Retrieved from https:// open.metu.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11511/98575/1253-7510-2-PB.pdf google scholar
  • Duesenberry, J.S. (1949). Income, saving and the theory of consumer behavior. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. google scholar
  • Duman, A. (2015). Türkiye’de gelir eşitsizliği: gerçeği aramak [Income inequality in Türkiye: Quest for the truth], Unpublished Article. google scholar
  • Dymski, G. (2010). Why the subprime crisis is different: a Minskyian approach. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(2), 239-255. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep054 google scholar
  • Ekzen, N. (2016). Türkiye Kısa İktisat Tarihi 1946’dan 2008’e. [A Short Economic History of Türkiye from 1946 to 2008], Ankara: ODTÜ Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Erol, I. (2019). Financial transformation and housing finance in Turkey. In G.L. Yalman, T. Marois & A.R. Güngen (Eds.), The political economy of financial transformation in Turkey (pp. 243-268). New York, NY: Routledge. google scholar
  • Fazzari, S., Ferri, P. and Greenberg, E. (2008). Cash flow, investment, and Keynes- Minsky cycles. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 65(3), 555-572. https://doi.org/10.1016Zj. jebo.2005.11.007 google scholar
  • Frank, R. H. (1985). The demand for unobservable and other nonpositional goods. The American Economic Review, 75(1), 101-116. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1812706 google scholar
  • Frank, R., Levine, A., & Dijk, O. (2014). Expenditure cascades. Review of Behavioral Economics, 1(1-2), 55-73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/105.00000003 google scholar
  • Hartwig, J. (2014). Testing the Bhaduri-Marglin model with OECD panel data. International Review of Applied Economics, 28(4), 419-435. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2014.896881 google scholar Hein, E. (2014). Distribution and growth after Keynes: A Post-Keynesian guide. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. google scholar
  • Hein, E. (2017). Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 14(2), 131-172. https://doi.org/10.4337/ ejeep.2017.02.01 google scholar
  • Hein, E., & Tarassow, A. (2010). Distribution, aggregate demand and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(4), 727-754. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep066 google scholar
  • Hein, E., & Vogel, L. (2008). Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(3), 479-511. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bem047 google scholar
  • Jetin, B., & Kurt, O. E. (2016). Functional income distribution and growth in Thailand: A post Keynesian econometric analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 39(3), 334-360. https://doi. org/10.1080/01603477.2016.1202774 google scholar
  • Jetin, B., & Ortiz, L.R. (2020). Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 43(3), 341-366. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2 020.1774392 google scholar
  • Kara^imen, E. (2014). Financialization in Turkey: The case of consumer debt. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 16(2), 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2014.910393 google scholar Kepenek, Y. (2011). Development & Structure of the Turkish economy. Ankara: METU Press. google scholar
  • Kiefer, D., & Rada, C. (2015). Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(5), 1333-1350. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu040 google scholar
  • Kim, Y. K., Setterfield, M., & Mei, Y. (2015). Aggregate consumption and debt accumulation: an empirical examination of US household behaviour. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(1), 93112. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu029 google scholar
  • Kohli, V. (2018). Functional income distribution and effective demand in India: An applied post Keynesian model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 41(3), 399-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/0 1603477.2018.1431795 google scholar
  • Kurt, O.E. (2020). Functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity growth in Turkey: A post-Kaleckian analysis. Metroeconomica, 71(4), 734-766. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12300 google scholar
  • Kurt, O.E. (2021). Instability of the US economy: A post- Kaleckian econometric analysis of functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity growth. Metu Studies in Development, 48(December), 251-288. Retrieved from http://www2.feas.metu.edu.tr/ metusd/ojs/index.php/metusd/article/view/1163 google scholar
  • Minsky, H. (2016) [1978]. The financial instability hypothesis: a restatement. In Can “It” Happen Again? (pp. 124-151). New York, NY: Routledge. google scholar
  • Molero-Simarro, R. (2015). Functional distribution of income, aggregate demand, and economic growth in the Chinese economy, 1978-2007. International Review of Applied Economics, 29(4), 435-454. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2015.1016404 google scholar
  • Narayan, P.K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi:10.1080/00036840500278103 google scholar
  • Nishi, H. (2012). Structural VAR analysis of debt, capital accumulation, and income distribution in the Japanese economy: a Post Keynesian perspective. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 34(4), 685-712. https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477340405 google scholar
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Toplam 58 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ozan Ekin Kurt 0000-0003-4943-5681

Yayımlanma Tarihi 18 Ocak 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Eylül 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022

Kaynak Göster

APA Kurt, O. E. (2023). Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(2), 507-541. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155
AMA Kurt OE. Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Ocak 2023;72(2):507-541. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155
Chicago Kurt, Ozan Ekin. “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A Post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72, sy. 2 (Ocak 2023): 507-41. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
EndNote Kurt OE (01 Ocak 2023) Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72 2 507–541.
IEEE O. E. Kurt, “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 72, sy. 2, ss. 507–541, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
ISNAD Kurt, Ozan Ekin. “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A Post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 72/2 (Ocak 2023), 507-541. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
JAMA Kurt OE. Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72:507–541.
MLA Kurt, Ozan Ekin. “Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A Post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 72, sy. 2, 2023, ss. 507-41, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155.
Vancouver Kurt OE. Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;72(2):507-41.