Yüksek Riskli Bir Ülkede Dolarizasyon ve Risk Primi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde dolarizasyonun neden olduğu deformasyonun öneminden yola çıkılarak geliştirilen bu çalışmada, para politikası, döviz kuru ve risk düzeyinin finansal dolarizasyon üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Çalışma tarihi itibariyle dünyanın en riskli ülkesi olan Türkiye için gerçekleştirilen araştırmada, risk seviyesinin kısa dönemler için etkisini belirlemek amacıyla haftalık veriler kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki FSHIN eşbütünleşme testi ve DOLS tahmincisi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Bulgular, ülke riski, döviz kuru ve yerli para mevduat faiz oranlarının finansal dolarizasyonu olumlu, yabancı para mevduat faiz oranlarının ise olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Makalenin özgünlüğü, yüksek riskli bir ülke için dolarizasyonun ekonomik göstergeler ve kısa dönemli riskler dikkate alınarak incelenmesinde yatmaktadır. Buna göre dolarizasyon, riskler ve ekonomi politikaları arasındaki ilişkiye ilişkin literatürdeki boşluğun doldurulması amaçlanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dolarizasyon
• Kredi Temerrüt Takasları
• Risk Seviyesi
• Para Politikası

Dollarization and Risk Premium in a Risky Country: An Investigation on Turkiye

Öz

In this study, developed from the importance of the deformation caused by dollarization in developing countries, the effect of risk level on financial dollarization is examined. In the research conducted for Turkey, one of the riskiest countries in the world according to the five-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) premium values as of the date of the study, weekly data between the period of December 14, 2012 and February 11, 2022 are used to determine the effect of the risk level for short periods. The relationship between variables is examined using the Fourier Cointegration Test (FSHIN) cointegration test and the Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) estimator. The findings show that country risk, exchange rate, and domestic currency deposit interest rates affect financial dollarization positively, while foreign currency deposit interest rates affect it negatively. The study carried out for Turkey sheds light on the factors that should be considered in high-risk countries facing the dollarization problem and presents policy recommendations for developing countries in this direction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dollarization
• Credit Default Swaps
• Risk Level
• Monetary Policy

Teşekkür

We would like to offer our special thanks to Assoc. Prof. Aycan Hepsağ for the WinRATS codes he developed and shared.

Kaynakça

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