Araştırma Makalesi
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Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets

Yıl 2023, , 837 - 864, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548

Öz

This research provides valuable insights into the intricate dynamics influencing tourism demand in Turkey. By delving into the relationships between transportation costs, tourists’ income levels, prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, and exchange rates, the study sheds light on the multifaceted nature of the tourism industry. The findings underscore the significance of various factors in shaping the tourism demand. Transportation costs and exchange rates are identified as critical determinants, exerting adverse effects on tourism demand. Higher transportation costs and unfavorable exchange rates can deter potential tourists However, income and prices emerged as positive influencers of tourism demand, suggesting that higher incomes and favorable price levels can stimulate tourist activity. The study’s investigation of causal relationships through advanced statistical techniques revealed valuable insights. The unidirectional causality from transportation costs and income to tourism demand highlighted the pivotal role of these factors in driving tourist behavior. Additionally, the causal relationship between prices and the exchange rate signifies the interplay between economic conditions and pricing strategies in shaping tourism demand. Overall, this research provides a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics in the Turkish tourism market, offering valuable insights for industry stakeholders and policymakers alike.

JEL Classification : C13 , C33 , L83 , Z30

Kaynakça

  • Akis, S. (1998). A compact econometric model of tourism demand for Turkey, Tourism Management. 19 (I), 99-102. google scholar
  • Akova, O., Sarıışık, M. & Dönmez, D. (12-14 October 2011). Strategies for tourism industry under the global economic crisis: a SWOT analysis for Turkish tourism. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kyrgyzstan, 382-389. google scholar
  • Alegre, J., & Pou, L. (2006). The length of stay in the demand for tourism, Tourism Management. 27, 1343-1355. google scholar
  • Allen, D., Yap, G., & Shareef, R. (2009). Modelling interstate tourism demand in Australia: A cointegration approach. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79, 2733-2740. google scholar
  • Assaf, A.G.; Li, G.; Song, H.; & Tsionas, M.G. (2019). Modeling and forecasting regional tourism demand using the bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model, Journal of Travel Research. 58(3), 383-397. google scholar
  • Ayhan, F. (2019). The analysis for the impacts of exchange rate volatility on the Turkish economy’s foreign trade, Business and Economics Research Journal. 30(3), 629-647. google scholar
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. Chichester, UK: Fourth ed. John Wiley and Sons. google scholar
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2013). Econometric analysis of panel data. Chichester, UK: Fifth ed. John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
  • Bianchi, G., and Che, Y. (2020). The short and long-run hotel demand in Switzerland: A weighted macroeconomic approach, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research. 44(5), 835-857. google scholar
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics, The Review of Economic Studies. 47(1), 239-253. https://doi. org/10.2307/2297111 google scholar
  • Brida, J.G., & Risso, W.A. (2009). A dynamic panel data study of the German demand for Tourism in South Tyrol, Tourism and Hospitality Research. 9, 305-313. google scholar
  • Cameron, A.C. & Trivedi, P.K. (1998). Regression analysis of count data. New York: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Cheng, K.M. (2012). Tourism demand in Hong Kong: income, prices, and visa restrictions, Current Issues in Tourism. 15(3), 167-181. google scholar
  • Crepon, B., Duguet, E. & Mairesse, J. (1998). Research innovation and productivity: an econometric analysis at firm level, NBER Working Paper. 6696. Cambridge, MA, p. 02138. google scholar
  • Crouch, G. (1995). A meta-analysis of tourism demand, Annals of Tourism Research. 22(1), 103-118. google scholar
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  • Divisekera, S. & Kulendran, N. (2006). Economic effects of advertising on tourism demand: a case study, Tourism Economics. 12(2), 187-205. google scholar
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece, Tourism Management. 25(1), 111-119. google scholar
  • Dritsakis, N., & Spiros, A. (2000). An econometric model of tourist demand: the case of Greece, Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing. 7(2), 39-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J150v07n02_03. google scholar
  • Dumitrescu, E.I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels, Economic Modelling. 29(4), 1450-1460. google scholar
  • Durbarry, R. & Sinclair, T.M. (2003). Market shares analysis the case of French tourism demand, Annals of Tourism Research. 30(4), 927-941. google scholar
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  • Gasmi, A., & Sassi, S. (2015). International tourism demand in Tunisia: evidence from dynamic panel data model, Economics Bulletin. 35(1), 507-518. google scholar
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  • Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor, Economics Letters. 1 15, 31-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econlet.2011.11.036 google scholar
  • Henseler, M., Maisonnave, H.& Maskaeva, A. (2021). Economic impacts of covid-19 on the tourism sector in Tanzania, Working Papers hal-03501722. HAL. google scholar
  • Huyugüzel Kışla, G. Ş., Türkcan, B. & Ince Yenilmez, M. (2023). How covid-19 has affected supply and demand within tourism industry, Journal of Multidisciplinary Academic Tourism. 8(1), 39-49. google scholar
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels, Journal of Econometrics. 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 google scholar
  • Jintanee, J., Sriboonchitta, S., Calkins, P. & Chaiboonsri, C. (2011). Thailand’s international tourism demand: seasonal panel unit roots and the related cointegration model, Review of Economics & Finance. 1, 63-76. google scholar
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  • Lejarraga, I., & Walkenhorst, P. (2013). Economic policy, tourism trade and productive diversification. International Economics, 135, 1-12. google scholar
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties, Journal of Econometrics. 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 google scholar
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  • Meo, M.S., Chowdhury, M.A.F., Shaikh, G.M., Ali, M. & Sheikh, S.M. (2018) Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research. 23(4), 408-422, doi: 10.1080/10941665.2018.1445652 google scholar
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Yıl 2023, , 837 - 864, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Akis, S. (1998). A compact econometric model of tourism demand for Turkey, Tourism Management. 19 (I), 99-102. google scholar
  • Akova, O., Sarıışık, M. & Dönmez, D. (12-14 October 2011). Strategies for tourism industry under the global economic crisis: a SWOT analysis for Turkish tourism. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kyrgyzstan, 382-389. google scholar
  • Alegre, J., & Pou, L. (2006). The length of stay in the demand for tourism, Tourism Management. 27, 1343-1355. google scholar
  • Allen, D., Yap, G., & Shareef, R. (2009). Modelling interstate tourism demand in Australia: A cointegration approach. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79, 2733-2740. google scholar
  • Assaf, A.G.; Li, G.; Song, H.; & Tsionas, M.G. (2019). Modeling and forecasting regional tourism demand using the bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model, Journal of Travel Research. 58(3), 383-397. google scholar
  • Ayhan, F. (2019). The analysis for the impacts of exchange rate volatility on the Turkish economy’s foreign trade, Business and Economics Research Journal. 30(3), 629-647. google scholar
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. Chichester, UK: Fourth ed. John Wiley and Sons. google scholar
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2013). Econometric analysis of panel data. Chichester, UK: Fifth ed. John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
  • Bianchi, G., and Che, Y. (2020). The short and long-run hotel demand in Switzerland: A weighted macroeconomic approach, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research. 44(5), 835-857. google scholar
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics, The Review of Economic Studies. 47(1), 239-253. https://doi. org/10.2307/2297111 google scholar
  • Brida, J.G., & Risso, W.A. (2009). A dynamic panel data study of the German demand for Tourism in South Tyrol, Tourism and Hospitality Research. 9, 305-313. google scholar
  • Cameron, A.C. & Trivedi, P.K. (1998). Regression analysis of count data. New York: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Cheng, K.M. (2012). Tourism demand in Hong Kong: income, prices, and visa restrictions, Current Issues in Tourism. 15(3), 167-181. google scholar
  • Crepon, B., Duguet, E. & Mairesse, J. (1998). Research innovation and productivity: an econometric analysis at firm level, NBER Working Paper. 6696. Cambridge, MA, p. 02138. google scholar
  • Crouch, G. (1995). A meta-analysis of tourism demand, Annals of Tourism Research. 22(1), 103-118. google scholar
  • Demirhan, E. & Demirhan, B. (2015). The dynamic effect of exchange- rate volatility on Turkish exports: parsimonious error-correction model approach, Panoeconomicus. 62(4), 429-451. google scholar
  • Divisekera, S. & Kulendran, N. (2006). Economic effects of advertising on tourism demand: a case study, Tourism Economics. 12(2), 187-205. google scholar
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece, Tourism Management. 25(1), 111-119. google scholar
  • Dritsakis, N., & Spiros, A. (2000). An econometric model of tourist demand: the case of Greece, Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing. 7(2), 39-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J150v07n02_03. google scholar
  • Dumitrescu, E.I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels, Economic Modelling. 29(4), 1450-1460. google scholar
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  • Martins, L.F., Yi, G. & Alexandra, F.L. (2017). An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on world tourism demand, Tourism Management. 61, 248-260. google scholar
  • Fourie J., Rossell’o-Nadal J. & Santana-Gallego, M. (2019). Fatal attraction: how security threats hurt tourism, Journal of Travel Research. 58, 1-11. google scholar
  • Gasmi, A., & Sassi, S. (2015). International tourism demand in Tunisia: evidence from dynamic panel data model, Economics Bulletin. 35(1), 507-518. google scholar
  • Granger, C.W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 37(3), 424-438. google scholar
  • Greene, W. (2008). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: sixth ed. Pearson International Edition. google scholar
  • Habibi, F., & Rahim, K.A. (2009). A bound test approach to cointegration of tourism demand, American Journal ofApplied Sciences. 6(11), 1924-1931. google scholar
  • Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal. 3(2), 148-161. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423x.00043 google scholar
  • Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor, Economics Letters. 1 15, 31-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econlet.2011.11.036 google scholar
  • Henseler, M., Maisonnave, H.& Maskaeva, A. (2021). Economic impacts of covid-19 on the tourism sector in Tanzania, Working Papers hal-03501722. HAL. google scholar
  • Huyugüzel Kışla, G. Ş., Türkcan, B. & Ince Yenilmez, M. (2023). How covid-19 has affected supply and demand within tourism industry, Journal of Multidisciplinary Academic Tourism. 8(1), 39-49. google scholar
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels, Journal of Econometrics. 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 google scholar
  • Jintanee, J., Sriboonchitta, S., Calkins, P. & Chaiboonsri, C. (2011). Thailand’s international tourism demand: seasonal panel unit roots and the related cointegration model, Review of Economics & Finance. 1, 63-76. google scholar
  • Kulendran, N. & Witt, S.F. (2001). Cointegration versus least squares regression, Annals of Tourism Research. 28(2), 291-311. google scholar
  • Lejarraga, I., & Walkenhorst, P. (2013). Economic policy, tourism trade and productive diversification. International Economics, 135, 1-12. google scholar
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties, Journal of Econometrics. 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 google scholar
  • Lim, C. (1997). Review of international tourism demand models, Annals of Tourism Research. 24(4), 835-849. google scholar
  • Lim, C., & McAleer, M. (2000). A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia, Applied Economics. 32(4), 499-509. google scholar
  • Lim, C., & McAleer, M. (2002). Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia, Tourism Management. 23, 389-396. google scholar
  • Meo, M.S., Chowdhury, M.A.F., Shaikh, G.M., Ali, M. & Sheikh, S.M. (2018) Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research. 23(4), 408-422, doi: 10.1080/10941665.2018.1445652 google scholar
  • Munoz, G.T. (2007). German demand for tourism in Spain, Tourism Management. 28, 12-22. google scholar
  • Nadal, J.R. & He, J. (2020). Tourist arrivals versus tourist expenditures in modelling tourism demand, Tourism Economics. 26(8), 1311-1326. google scholar
  • O’Connell, P. (1998). The overvaluation of purchasing power parity, Journal of International Economics. 44, 1-19. google scholar
  • OECD (2021a). Main Economic Indicators-Complete Database. Main Economic Indicators (database), Accessed at http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/main-economic-indicators/main-economic-indicators-complete-database_data-00052-en (accessed October 14, 2021). google scholar
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  • Petrovic, P., & Gligoric, M. (2010). Exchange rate and trade balance: j-curve effect, Panoeconomicus. 1, 23-41. Doi: 10.2298/PAN1001023P google scholar
  • Republic of Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism. 2022. “General Tourism Statistics for 2021.” http:// yigm.kulturturizm.gov.tr/TR-232959/arastirma-ve-raporlar.html (accessed March 12, 2022). google scholar
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels, Cambridge Working Papers, Economics. 1240(1), 1. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics. 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae google scholar
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence, Econometrics Journal. 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x google scholar
  • Salleh, H.M.N., Othman, R. & Ramachandran, S. (2007). Malaysia’s tourism demand from selected countries: the ARDL approach to cointegration, International Journal of Economics and Management. 1(3), 345-363. google scholar
  • Schiff, A., & Becken, S. (2011). Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism, Tourism Management. 32, 564-575. google scholar
  • Shafiullah, M.O. Emeka, O.L. & Usman, K. (2019). Determinants of international tourism demand: evidence from Australian states and territories, Tourism Economics. 25(2), 274-296. google scholar
  • Sharma, C. and Pal, D. (2020). Exchange rate volatility and tourism demand in India: unraveling the asymmetric relationship, Journal of Travel Research. 59(7), 1282-1297. google scholar
  • Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S.F., & Baogang, F. (2010). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: how should demand be measured?, Tourism Economics. 16 (1), 63-81 google scholar
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Toplam 84 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Burak Darıcı 0000-0003-0765-7374

Ahmet Aydın 0000-0002-7871-1297

Fatih Ayhan 0000-0002-7447-5506

Merve Altaylar 0000-0001-5413-5048

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 19 Mayıs 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Darıcı, B., Aydın, A., Ayhan, F., Altaylar, M. (2023). Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 73(2), 837-864. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548
AMA Darıcı B, Aydın A, Ayhan F, Altaylar M. Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Aralık 2023;73(2):837-864. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548
Chicago Darıcı, Burak, Ahmet Aydın, Fatih Ayhan, ve Merve Altaylar. “Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73, sy. 2 (Aralık 2023): 837-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548.
EndNote Darıcı B, Aydın A, Ayhan F, Altaylar M (01 Aralık 2023) Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73 2 837–864.
IEEE B. Darıcı, A. Aydın, F. Ayhan, ve M. Altaylar, “Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 2, ss. 837–864, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548.
ISNAD Darıcı, Burak vd. “Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73/2 (Aralık 2023), 837-864. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548.
JAMA Darıcı B, Aydın A, Ayhan F, Altaylar M. Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73:837–864.
MLA Darıcı, Burak vd. “Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 2, 2023, ss. 837-64, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2023-1296548.
Vancouver Darıcı B, Aydın A, Ayhan F, Altaylar M. Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand Toward Emerging Markets. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73(2):837-64.