The Economic Conjuncture Before and After the Dissolution of Yugoslavia: Determinants of Economic Growth in Former Yugoslavian Countries

Öz

Despite adopting a socialist economic model, Yugoslavia experienced significant economic disparities among its regions. These disparities continued after the dissolution of the country, and the countries retained significant differences in economic growth. This study investigates the key determinants of economic growth in former Yugoslavian countries using panel data analysis. To this end, in this study, panel cointegration analysis with an augmented mean group estimator (AMG) was conducted using data from the former Yugoslavian countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia) between 2008 and 2022. In the model, GDP per capita was used as the dependent variable, and capital formation, labor, foreign direct investments, and exports were used as independent variables. The empirical results indicate that in these countries, both exports and capital formation are strong and statistically significant drivers of economic growth, whereas foreign direct investment and labor, exhibit only marginal impacts on economic growth, suggesting that their roles in shaping macroeconomic outcomes remain limited. These findings support the export-led growth hypothesis and underscore the importance of investment in physical capital for developing economies. The study concludes that growth strategies in the region should prioritize policies that stimulate domestic investment and strengthen export competitiveness while undertaking long-term reforms to enhance labor productivity and improve the quality of foreign direct investments. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to achieve sustained and inclusive economic growth in former Yugoslavian countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yugoslavia
• Economic Growth
• GDP per capita
• Dissolution
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

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