Causal Relationship Between GDP and Carbon Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Türkiye and OECD Countries

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 75 Sayı: 2, 658 - 677, 15.01.2026

İdris Adıgüzel , Targan Ünal

https://doi.org/10.26650//ISTJECON2025-1803533

https://izlik.org/JA36LU62XX

Öz

In this study, by using data from 14 OECD countries between 1990-2023 years, I analyze the impact of per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita energy consumption (EC), and the share of the industrial sector in the economy (IND) on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The analysis contains the cross-sectional dependence between the series that was determined with the aid of the CD test improved by Pesaran (2004). Then, the second-generation unit root tests, IPS (2003) and CADF (2007), were applied, and it was concluded that all variables were stationary in their first differences [I(1)]. In this particular context, the ARDL methodology was employed to compare the Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG), and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) forecasters, and the Hausman test results indicated that the PMG estimator was the most suitable model for forecaster. The results show that, eventually, GDP has a statistically important negative impact on CO₂ emissions, even though both EC and IND variables exert statistically important positive impact on CO₂ emissions over the same period of time. The short-run coefficients at the country level signify heterogeneity in how variations in energy consumption and the industrial sector’s share influence carbon emissions. For this reason, it is clear that policymakers should prioritise supporting tools to increase energy efficiency, focusing on low-carbon renewable energy technologies in industry, and supporting green investments in this regard.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO2 Emissions , Economic Growth , Panel ARDL Method

Kaynakça

• Ahmad, M., Zhao, Z. & Li, H. (2019). Revealing Stylized Empirical Interactions Among Construction Sector, Urbanization, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in China. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 657: 1085-1098. google scholar 
• Akın, F., Dinçer, S. & Özdemir, M. G. (2024). G-7 ülkelerinde göç, karbon emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 16(30), 36–50. google scholar 
• Ang, J. B. (2007). CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy, 35(10), 4772–4778. google scholar 
• Arouri, M., Youssef, A. B., M'Henni, H. ve Rault, C. (2012). Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries. IZA DP No. 6412. google scholar 
• Atgür, M. (2021). Ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve karbon emisyonları ilişkisi: Çin örneği. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(1), 172–186. google scholar 
• Aye, G. C. ve Edoja, P. E. (2017). Effect of economic growth on CO2 emission in developing countries: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(2017), 1-22. google scholar 
• Azomahou, T., & Phu, N.V. (2001). Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: a Nonparametric Approach. Core Discussion Papers 2001012, http://www.betaumr7522.fr/productions/publications/2001/2001-01.pdf, (16.10.2013). google scholar 
• Blackburne, E. F., & Frank, M. W. (2007). Estimation of Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels. Stata Journal, 197-208. google scholar 
• Bozkurt, C. & Akan, Y. (2014). Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption: the Turkish case. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(3), 484-494. google scholar 
• Farhani, S. & Jaleleddine, B. R. (2012). Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissionas: evidence from panel data for MENA region. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2 (2), 71-81. google scholar 
• Grossman, G.M. & Krueger, A.B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement (No. w3914). National Bureau of Economic Research google scholar 
• Hossain, S. M. (2011). Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries. Energy Policy, 39 (11), 6991- 6999. google scholar 
• Jaunky, V.C. (2011). The CO2 emissions-income nexus: Evidence from rich countries. Energy Policy, 39, 1228-1240. google scholar 
• Kasperowicz, R. (2015). Economic growth and CO2 emissions: The ECM Analysis. Journal of International Studies, 8(3), 91-98. google scholar 
• Kazanasmaz, E., Demirel, B. L., Karatepe, S., & Hızarcı, A. E. (2023). Ekonomik büyüme, elektrik tüketimi ve karbon emisyonu ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. MUFİDER, 6(2), 248–265. google scholar 
• Im, K., & Pesaran, M. (2003). On the Panel Unit Roots Testin Using Nonlinear Instrumental Variables. google scholar 
• Levin, A., Lin, C., & Chu. (2002). Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asympotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, s. 1-24. google scholar 
• Özel, S., & Ekiz, F. M. (2021). Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve karbondioksit emisyonunun ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 625–647. google scholar 
• Özman, K., & Karadaş, H. A. (2022). The relationship between renewable energy, economic growth and CO₂ emission. International Journal of Current Social Science, 2(1): 38-45. google scholar 
• Öztürk, İ. & Acaravcı, A. (2010). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, 3220-3225. google scholar 
• Pao, H., & Tsai, C. (2011). Modeling and forecasting the CO2emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil. Energy, 36, 2450–2458. google scholar 
• Pesaran, M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 265-312. google scholar 
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Test for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge: Cambridge Working Papper. google scholar 
• Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.google scholar 
• Pesaran, M. H., Y.Shin, & R.P.Smith. (1997). Estimating long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panels. DAE Working Papers.google scholar 
• Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J. & Mohd, S. (2012). Economic growth and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: A cointegration analysis of the environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy Policy, 51,184-191. google scholar 
• Sever, E. ve İğdeli, A. (2018). Sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme: yükselen piyasa ekonomileri örneğinde bir inceleme. 1. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve İşletme Sempozyumu, 470-486. google scholar 
• Shahbaz, M., Ozturk, I., Afza, T., Ali, A. (2013). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets Curve in a global economy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 494-502. google scholar 
• Sohag, K., Umar, B. & Alam, M. (2018). Stata Comand for Panel Data Analysis. google scholar 
• Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi. İstanbul: Beta. google scholar 
• Tay, B. A. & Koç, Y. A. (2016). Türkiye’de karbon emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme analizi. AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16 (4), 31-45. google scholar 
• Topallı, N. (2016). CO2 emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Hindistan, Çin, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika için panel veri analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 427-447. google scholar 
• Yılmaz, M., & Dilber, İ. (2020). Elektrik tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret açıklığının CO₂ emisyonu üzerine etkisi: ARDL sınır testi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 22(2), 459–475. google scholar 
• Xiongling, T. (2016). The relationship between carbon dioxide emission intensity and economic growth in China: cointegration, linear and nonlinear Granger causality. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 7(2), 122-129. google scholar