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Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Rusya Örneği

Yıl 2019, , 43 - 65, 28.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki ilişki ekonomi literatüründe en sık tartışılan konulardan biridir. Bu çalışmanın ana amacı Rusya’da ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü ortaya çıkarmaktır. Analizler 2003:q1 - 2018:q4 arası çeyreklik ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat verileri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Durağanlık testi için Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) birim kök testi kullanılarak değişkenlerin birim kök içerip içermediği analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, tüm değişkenlerin birinci farkları alındığında değişkenlerin durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada daha sonra değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiyi analiz etmek için Engle Granger eşbütünleşme testi yapılmış olup, bununla birlikte değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucu 2003 – 2018 yılları arası Rusya’da ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Ekonomik büyüme ile ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinde, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ihracatın etkisi Rusya’nın ihracatta ham maddeye olan bağlılığı nedeniyle baskındır. Çalışmanın ortaya koyduğu temel öneri ise Rusya’nın petrol fiyatlarına olan ekonomik bağımlılığını azaltması gerektiğidir. Rusya ekonomisinin petrol fiyatlarına olan bu bağımlılığını düşürmesi için Rusya ekonomisinde güçlü yapısal reformlar ve ilerlemeler gereklidir.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, S. (2004). Uluslararasi Reel Ticaret: Teori, Politika. İzmir: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Aktaş, C. (2009). Causality Analysis between Turkey’s Exports, Imports and Economic Growth. Kocaeli University Journal of Social Sciences, 18(2), 35–47.
  • Alagöz, M. (2009). Within the Framework of Internals Growth Theory a Causality Analysis on Relationship between Turkey’s Foreign Trade and Growth (1980-2006). Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 46(529), 75–84. Retrieved from http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/files/ articles/152820004634_5.pdf
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (Eds.). (2013). Uluslararasi Iktisat. Eskişehir: Anadolu Üniversitesi Açık Öğretim Yayınları. Bayraktutan, Y., & İbrahim, A. (2008). Effect of Fixed Capital Investments on Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis (1980-2006). KMU Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 14, 1–12.
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Bakırtaş, T. (2014). The Relationship Among Oil, Natural Gas and Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) Countries. Energy, 65(C), 134–144.
  • Bradshaw, M., & Connolly, R. (2016). Russia’s Natural Resources in the World Economy: history, review and Reassessment, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 57(6), 700–726, DOI: 10.1080/15387216.2016.1254055.
  • Cetintaş, S., & Barışık, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636–649.
  • Feder, G. (1982). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, 59–73.
  • Göçer, İ. (2013). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicisi Olarak İhracat: Gelişmekte Olan Asya Ülkeleri İçin Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 86, 27–42. Retrieved from https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/60/ TBB_dergi86-web.pdf.
  • Granger, C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. doi:10.2307/1912791.
  • Granger, J. W. C., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120. Retrieved from https://wolfweb.unr.edu/homepage/zal/STAT758/ Granger_Newbold_1974.pdf.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Translated and edited by Senesen, U. and Senesen, G.G. Istanbul: Literatur Publications. Hüseyni, İ. (2012). Dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme analizi Türkiye örneği: 1980-2010. (Master Disseration). Ataturk University, Erzurum.
  • İspir, S. M., Ersoy, B. A., & Yılmazer, M. (2009). Do Exports or Imports Have More Effect on Turkey’s Growth Dynamics?. Dokuz Eylul University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 24(1), 59–72. Retrieved from http://iibf.deu.edu.tr/deuj/index.php/cilt1-sayi1/article/view/248/pdf_228.
  • Jayme, F. (2001). Notes on Trade and Growth. Texto Para Discussão. Retrieved from http://www. cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20166.pdf.
  • Khatun, R. (2016). Relation between Trade in Financial Services and Economic Growth in BRICS Economies: Cointegration and Causality Approach, Global Business Review, 17(1), 214–225.
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S., & Şentürk, M. (2015). Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach, Journal of Asian Development Studies, 4(3), 117–129.
  • Konya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach. Economic Modeling, 23(6), 978–992. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S0264999306000496.
  • Korkmaz, S. (2014). Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in Turkish Economy. Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(4), 119–128.
  • Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (1991). International Economics Theory and Policy. New York: Harper Collins Publishers.
  • Kuzmenko, E., Smutka, L., Pankov, M., & Efimova, N. (2017). The Success of Economic Policies in Russia: Dependence on Crude Oil vs. Export Diversification. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65, 299–310.
  • Ledyaeva, S., & Linden, M. (2008). Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Russian Regions. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 5(1), 87–105.
  • Mau, V. (2016). Between Crises and Sanctions: Economic Policy of the Russian Federation. Post-Soviet Affairs, 32(4), 350–377.
  • Mau, V. (2017). Russia’s Economic Policy in 2015–2016: The Imperative of Structural Reform. PostSoviet Affairs, 33(1), 63–83. Retrieved from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10605 86X.2016.1215679.
  • OECD (2015). Country statistics. Retrieved from: https://data.oecd.org
  • Özer, M., & Erdoğan, L. (2006). A Time Series Analysis of Export, Import and Economic Growth Relations in Turkey. Gazi University Economic Approaches,17(60-61), 93–110. doi:10.5455/ey.10619
  • Rani, R., & Kumar, N. (2018). Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation. Jindal Journal of Business Research, 7(1), 13–23.
  • Sandalcılar, R. A. (2012). Relationship between Economic Growth and Exports in BRIC Countries: Panel Cointegration and Panel Causality. Suleyman Demirel University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 17(1), 161–179. Retrieved from http://sablon. sdu.edu.tr/fakulteler/iibf/ dergi/files/2012-1-8.pdf.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2009). International Economics: Theory, Politics and Application. İstanbul: Güzem Can Publications.
  • Srinivasan, P. (2016). Causal Nexus between Export and Growth: BRICS Nations. SCMS Journal of Indian Management, 8(1), 67–80.
  • Tabata, S. (2006). Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1), 95–111.
  • Takım, A. (2010). Relationship Between GDP and Exports in Turkey: Granger Causality Test. Ataturk University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(2), 1–16. Retrieved from http://dergipark. ulakbim.gov. tr/ataunisosbil/article/viewFile/1020005978/1020005764.
  • Tarı, R. (2011). Econometrics. Istanbul: Umuttepe Printing House.
  • Taştan, H. (2010). Spectral Analysis of Causal Relationships between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of Economic Sciences, 2(1), 87–98. Retrieved from http:// www.sobiad. org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2010_1/10huseyin_tastan.pdf.
  • The Central Bank of Russian Federation (CBR). Retrieved from: https://www.cbr.ru/Eng/ statistics/?PrtId=svs.
  • The World Bank – World Development Indicators. Retrieved from: http://databank.worldbank.org/ data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=RUS&series=&period=#.
  • U.S. Energy Information Agency, (EIA) (2017). Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/beta/ international/analysis_includes/ countries_long/Russia/russia.pdf. (Accessed 09 July 2017).
  • Uysal, Ö., & Sat, S. (2015). Causality Relationship between Export and Economic Growth: The Case of Russia. International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Kazan-Russia Federation. 416-422.
  • Yiğidim, A., & Köse, N. (1997). Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth, and Role of Imports: The Case of Turkey (1980-1996). Economic Approach, 8(26), 71–85. Retrieved from http://ekonomikyaklasim.org/pdfs2/EYD_V08_N26_A05.pdf.
  • Zamaraev, B., Kiiutsevskaia, A., Nazarova A., & Sukhanov E., (2014). The Slowdown of Russian Economic Growth. Problems of Economic Transition, 57(3), 13–56.

The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia

Yıl 2019, , 43 - 65, 28.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011

Öz

The relationship between economic growth and export has been one of the most disputed issues in economics literature. The main objective of this paper is to find the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and export in Russia. We performed our analysis using quarterly economic growth and export data from 2003:q1 to 2018:q4. Using the ADF unit root test for stationarity we first analyzed whether the variables contained a unit root. As a result, we determined that all the variables were stationary at their first differences. Subsequently, we conducted the Engle Granger Cointegration test to analyze the long term relationship between the variables and we determined that there was a long-term relationship between the variables. By using the Granger Causality Test to determine the direction of the relationship, we found that a unidirectional causality existed between economic growth and export in the Russian economy between 2003 and 2018. As seen in the causality relationship between economic growth and export being unidirectional (from export to growth), the effect of export on economic growth is dominant because of export’s dependence on raw materials. Russia should reduce its economic dependence on oil prices and strong structural improvements are necessary to reduce this dependence.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, S. (2004). Uluslararasi Reel Ticaret: Teori, Politika. İzmir: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Aktaş, C. (2009). Causality Analysis between Turkey’s Exports, Imports and Economic Growth. Kocaeli University Journal of Social Sciences, 18(2), 35–47.
  • Alagöz, M. (2009). Within the Framework of Internals Growth Theory a Causality Analysis on Relationship between Turkey’s Foreign Trade and Growth (1980-2006). Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 46(529), 75–84. Retrieved from http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/files/ articles/152820004634_5.pdf
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (Eds.). (2013). Uluslararasi Iktisat. Eskişehir: Anadolu Üniversitesi Açık Öğretim Yayınları. Bayraktutan, Y., & İbrahim, A. (2008). Effect of Fixed Capital Investments on Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis (1980-2006). KMU Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 14, 1–12.
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Bakırtaş, T. (2014). The Relationship Among Oil, Natural Gas and Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) Countries. Energy, 65(C), 134–144.
  • Bradshaw, M., & Connolly, R. (2016). Russia’s Natural Resources in the World Economy: history, review and Reassessment, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 57(6), 700–726, DOI: 10.1080/15387216.2016.1254055.
  • Cetintaş, S., & Barışık, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636–649.
  • Feder, G. (1982). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, 59–73.
  • Göçer, İ. (2013). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicisi Olarak İhracat: Gelişmekte Olan Asya Ülkeleri İçin Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 86, 27–42. Retrieved from https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/60/ TBB_dergi86-web.pdf.
  • Granger, C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. doi:10.2307/1912791.
  • Granger, J. W. C., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120. Retrieved from https://wolfweb.unr.edu/homepage/zal/STAT758/ Granger_Newbold_1974.pdf.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Translated and edited by Senesen, U. and Senesen, G.G. Istanbul: Literatur Publications. Hüseyni, İ. (2012). Dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme analizi Türkiye örneği: 1980-2010. (Master Disseration). Ataturk University, Erzurum.
  • İspir, S. M., Ersoy, B. A., & Yılmazer, M. (2009). Do Exports or Imports Have More Effect on Turkey’s Growth Dynamics?. Dokuz Eylul University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 24(1), 59–72. Retrieved from http://iibf.deu.edu.tr/deuj/index.php/cilt1-sayi1/article/view/248/pdf_228.
  • Jayme, F. (2001). Notes on Trade and Growth. Texto Para Discussão. Retrieved from http://www. cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20166.pdf.
  • Khatun, R. (2016). Relation between Trade in Financial Services and Economic Growth in BRICS Economies: Cointegration and Causality Approach, Global Business Review, 17(1), 214–225.
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S., & Şentürk, M. (2015). Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach, Journal of Asian Development Studies, 4(3), 117–129.
  • Konya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach. Economic Modeling, 23(6), 978–992. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S0264999306000496.
  • Korkmaz, S. (2014). Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in Turkish Economy. Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(4), 119–128.
  • Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (1991). International Economics Theory and Policy. New York: Harper Collins Publishers.
  • Kuzmenko, E., Smutka, L., Pankov, M., & Efimova, N. (2017). The Success of Economic Policies in Russia: Dependence on Crude Oil vs. Export Diversification. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65, 299–310.
  • Ledyaeva, S., & Linden, M. (2008). Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Russian Regions. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 5(1), 87–105.
  • Mau, V. (2016). Between Crises and Sanctions: Economic Policy of the Russian Federation. Post-Soviet Affairs, 32(4), 350–377.
  • Mau, V. (2017). Russia’s Economic Policy in 2015–2016: The Imperative of Structural Reform. PostSoviet Affairs, 33(1), 63–83. Retrieved from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10605 86X.2016.1215679.
  • OECD (2015). Country statistics. Retrieved from: https://data.oecd.org
  • Özer, M., & Erdoğan, L. (2006). A Time Series Analysis of Export, Import and Economic Growth Relations in Turkey. Gazi University Economic Approaches,17(60-61), 93–110. doi:10.5455/ey.10619
  • Rani, R., & Kumar, N. (2018). Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation. Jindal Journal of Business Research, 7(1), 13–23.
  • Sandalcılar, R. A. (2012). Relationship between Economic Growth and Exports in BRIC Countries: Panel Cointegration and Panel Causality. Suleyman Demirel University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 17(1), 161–179. Retrieved from http://sablon. sdu.edu.tr/fakulteler/iibf/ dergi/files/2012-1-8.pdf.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2009). International Economics: Theory, Politics and Application. İstanbul: Güzem Can Publications.
  • Srinivasan, P. (2016). Causal Nexus between Export and Growth: BRICS Nations. SCMS Journal of Indian Management, 8(1), 67–80.
  • Tabata, S. (2006). Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1), 95–111.
  • Takım, A. (2010). Relationship Between GDP and Exports in Turkey: Granger Causality Test. Ataturk University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(2), 1–16. Retrieved from http://dergipark. ulakbim.gov. tr/ataunisosbil/article/viewFile/1020005978/1020005764.
  • Tarı, R. (2011). Econometrics. Istanbul: Umuttepe Printing House.
  • Taştan, H. (2010). Spectral Analysis of Causal Relationships between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of Economic Sciences, 2(1), 87–98. Retrieved from http:// www.sobiad. org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2010_1/10huseyin_tastan.pdf.
  • The Central Bank of Russian Federation (CBR). Retrieved from: https://www.cbr.ru/Eng/ statistics/?PrtId=svs.
  • The World Bank – World Development Indicators. Retrieved from: http://databank.worldbank.org/ data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=RUS&series=&period=#.
  • U.S. Energy Information Agency, (EIA) (2017). Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/beta/ international/analysis_includes/ countries_long/Russia/russia.pdf. (Accessed 09 July 2017).
  • Uysal, Ö., & Sat, S. (2015). Causality Relationship between Export and Economic Growth: The Case of Russia. International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Kazan-Russia Federation. 416-422.
  • Yiğidim, A., & Köse, N. (1997). Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth, and Role of Imports: The Case of Turkey (1980-1996). Economic Approach, 8(26), 71–85. Retrieved from http://ekonomikyaklasim.org/pdfs2/EYD_V08_N26_A05.pdf.
  • Zamaraev, B., Kiiutsevskaia, A., Nazarova A., & Sukhanov E., (2014). The Slowdown of Russian Economic Growth. Problems of Economic Transition, 57(3), 13–56.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Özgür Uysal

Sultan Sat Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Haziran 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Nisan 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019

Kaynak Göster

APA Uysal, Ö., & Sat, S. (2019). The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 69(1), 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011
AMA Uysal Ö, Sat S. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Haziran 2019;69(1):43-65. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011
Chicago Uysal, Özgür, ve Sultan Sat. “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 69, sy. 1 (Haziran 2019): 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011.
EndNote Uysal Ö, Sat S (01 Haziran 2019) The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 69 1 43–65.
IEEE Ö. Uysal ve S. Sat, “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 69, sy. 1, ss. 43–65, 2019, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011.
ISNAD Uysal, Özgür - Sat, Sultan. “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 69/1 (Haziran 2019), 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011.
JAMA Uysal Ö, Sat S. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2019;69:43–65.
MLA Uysal, Özgür ve Sultan Sat. “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 69, sy. 1, 2019, ss. 43-65, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011.
Vancouver Uysal Ö, Sat S. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2019;69(1):43-65.