Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Rusya Örneği

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki ilişki ekonomi literatüründe en sık tartışılan konulardan biridir. Bu çalışmanın ana amacı Rusya’da ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü ortaya çıkarmaktır. Analizler 2003:q1 - 2018:q4 arası çeyreklik ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat verileri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Durağanlık testi için Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) birim kök testi kullanılarak değişkenlerin birim kök içerip içermediği analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, tüm değişkenlerin birinci farkları alındığında değişkenlerin durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada daha sonra değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiyi analiz etmek için Engle Granger eşbütünleşme testi yapılmış olup, bununla birlikte değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucu 2003 – 2018 yılları arası Rusya’da ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Ekonomik büyüme ile ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinde, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ihracatın etkisi Rusya’nın ihracatta ham maddeye olan bağlılığı nedeniyle baskındır. Çalışmanın ortaya koyduğu temel öneri ise Rusya’nın petrol fiyatlarına olan ekonomik bağımlılığını azaltması gerektiğidir. Rusya ekonomisinin petrol fiyatlarına olan bu bağımlılığını düşürmesi için Rusya ekonomisinde güçlü yapısal reformlar ve ilerlemeler gereklidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat
• ekonomik büyüme
• Rusya ekonomisi

The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia

Öz

The relationship between economic growth and export has been one of the most disputed issues in economics literature. The main objective of this paper is to find the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and export in Russia. We performed our analysis using quarterly economic growth and export data from 2003:q1 to 2018:q4. Using the ADF unit root test for stationarity we first analyzed whether the variables contained a unit root. As a result, we determined that all the variables were stationary at their first differences. Subsequently, we conducted the Engle Granger Cointegration test to analyze the long term relationship between the variables and we determined that there was a long-term relationship between the variables. By using the Granger Causality Test to determine the direction of the relationship, we found that a unidirectional causality existed between economic growth and export in the Russian economy between 2003 and 2018. As seen in the causality relationship between economic growth and export being unidirectional (from export to growth), the effect of export on economic growth is dominant because of export’s dependence on raw materials. Russia should reduce its economic dependence on oil prices and strong structural improvements are necessary to reduce this dependence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export
• economic growth
• Russian economy

Kaynakça

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