Türkiye’de İthalat Talebi ve Eşitsizlik

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de eşitsizlik ve ithalat talebi arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını anlamaktır. Bu çalışmada, 1982-2015 döneminde reel ithalat, reel gelir, nispi fiyatlar, reel ihracat ve eşitsizlik arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkileri tahmin etmek için ARDL eşbütünleşme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, literatür ile uyumlu bir şekilde ithalatın gelir esnekliğinin birden fazla olduğunu göstermiştir. Göreli fiyatların esneklik katsayısı literatürle uyumlu olarak birden az bulunsa da istatistiksel olarak anlamlı çıkmamaktadır. Ancak sonuçlar, göreli düşük gelirli ülkeler için eşitsizlik ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkiyi negatif bulan birtakım çalışmaların aksine Türkiye’de, eşitsizlik ve reel ithalat arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa dönem katsayıları ithalatın, reel gelir ve göreli fiyatlar ile ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir, fakat ithalat şaşırtıcı olmayan bir şekilde ihracat ve eşitsizlik ile kısa dönemde ilişkili değildir. Gelirin kısa dönem katsayısı, uzun dönem katsayısından daha düşük, fakat hala birden büyüktür. Diğer yandan, göreli fiyatların katsayısı kısa dönemde pozitife dönmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İthalat talebi
• Eşitsizlik
• Eşbütünleşme

Inequality and the Import Demand in Turkey

Öz

The study aims to see whether the long-run relation between inequality and import demand exists in Turkey. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique is used in this study to estimate the long-run relationships between real imports, income, relative price, real exports, and inequality for the period 1982-2015. The results revealed that the income elasticity of imports is greater than one as the literature suggests. The sign of the coefficient of relative price and its magnitude is also compatible with the literature, while it is not statistically significant. However, the results further reflect that inequality is positively associated with real imports in Turkey contrary to assumptions of the relation between inequality and imports that is found to be negative for lower income countries in some studies. Short-run coefficients reflect that real income and relative prices are associated with real imports, whereas exports and not surprisingly, inequality variables are not in the short-run. The coefficient of income parameter is less in magnitude in the short-run but still greater than one. However, the sign of the coefficient of the relative price turns out to be positive in the short-run

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Import demand
• Inequality
• Cointegration

Kaynakça

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