Avrupa Birliği’nin Enerji Güvenliği: Enerji İthalatı Bağımlılığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1, 133 - 162, 16.07.2021

Serap Elüstü

Öz

Enerji piyasasının coğrafi koşullar nedeniyle oligopolistik bir yapıya sahip olması, bazı ülkeler için enerji ürünlerinin ithal edilmesini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Özellikle Avrupa Birliği, politik açıdan riskleri olan Rusya ve MENA (Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika) bölgesi ile bağımlılığa ulaşan önemli enerji ilişkilerine sahiptir. Enerji güvenliğini aksatan bu durum, AB için ekonomik açıdan risk oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada AB’ye üye ve aday ülkelerin 2014-2018 dönemi petrol ve petrol ürünleri, doğal gaz, katı yakıt ithalatı ve enerji ithalatı bağımlılığının ekonomik büyüme ile ilişkisi panel veri analizi ile araştırılmaktadır. Modele yönelik temel varsayım testlerinin sonucunda Driscoll-Kraay tahmin modelinin kullanılması uygun bulunmuştur. Bulgular, AB ülkelerinin petrol ve petrol ürünleri ithalatının ekonomik büyümeleri üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif; enerji ithalatı bağımlılığının ise ekonomik büyümeleri üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü olduğu şeklindedir. Doğal gaz ve katı yakıt ithalatının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Petrol ve petrol ürünleri ithalatının ekonomik büyüme ile aynı yönde hareket etmesi, Avrupa Birliği’nde GSYİH’nin büyük kısmının hizmetler sektörüne bağlı olması, hizmetler sektörünün en büyük parçasını ise petrol ve petrol ürünlerinin yoğun olarak kullanıldığı ulaştırma sektörünün oluşturması ile açıklanabilir. Enerji ithalatı bağımlılığı ise beklendiği üzere ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Çalışma sonucuna göre AB’de yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı, enerji verimliliğinin artırılması gibi enerji ithalatı bağımlılığını azaltıcı politikaların reel GSYİH’yi artırıcı etki yaratması beklenmektedir. Enerjinin ithal edildiği kaynakların çeşitlendirilmesinin de, ihracatçıdan kaynaklanan tedarik risklerini aza indirmesi ve böylece enerji güvenliğini olumlu etkilemesi öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Avrupa Birliği, Enerji ithalatı bağımlılığı, Enerjigüvenliği, Ekonomik büyüme, Panel veri analizi

Energy Security of the European Union: The Relationship between Energy Import Dependency and Economic Growth

Öz

Energy markets have an oligopolistic structure based on global geographic conditions, which necessitates the import of energy products. Having a robust energy dependency on the Russian Federation and the Middle East and North African (MENA) region renders the European Union (EU) vulnerable in terms of both energy security and trade. This study analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy import dependency, coupled with the import of oil and petroleum products, natural gas, and solid fuels in EU member and candidate countries between 2014 and 2018 through panel data analysis using the Driscoll-Kraay estimator. Key findings reveal that the effect of natural gas and solid fuel imports on economic growth is statistically insignificant, whereas the effect of oil and petroleum product imports on economic growth is statistically significant and positive and the effect of energy import dependency on economic growth is statistically significant and negative. Oil and petroleum products are mostly used in transportation, and services have the highest share in the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP); thus, the use of oil and petroleum products in the EU supports economic growth. The use of oil and petroleum products depends on imports, as the EU does not have sufficient internal sources. Increased energy efficiency and use of renewable energies may decrease energy import dependence and reduce the use of non-renewable energy products procured from external suppliers. If importing is a mandate, then diversifying exporters could minimize the risk of arising shortages from suppliers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

European Union, Energy import dependency, Energy security, Economic growth, Panel data analysis

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