Türkiye ekonomisinin sektörel istihdam dinamiklerine küreselleşme ve teknolojik gelişme üzerinden ampirik bir bakış: ARDL ve DOLS yöntemlerinden kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, küreselleşme ve teknolojik gelişmenin Türkiye’deki sektörel istihdam üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, küreselleşme endeksi ve teknolojik gelişme göstergesi olarak AR-GE harcamalarının tarım, sanayi ve hizmet sektörlerinde yarattığı istihdam dinamikleri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada 1991-2021 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak ARDL ve DOLS tahmincileri aracılığıyla sektörel düzeyde uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkiler Türkiye örneğinde analiz edilmiştir. ARDL modeli, uzun dönem ilişkilerin yanı sıra kısa dönem dinamiklerin eşzamanlı olarak incelenmesine olanak sağlarken, DOLS tahmincisi eşbütünleşme analizinde elde edilen bulguların sağlamlığını test etmeye olanak sağlamaktadır. Buna göre, Türkiye için tarım, sanayi ve hizmet sektörlerine yönelik üç ayrı model kurulmuş ve her sektör ayrı ayrı değerlendirilmiştir. Küreselleşme endeksi ve AR-GE harcamalarının tarım sektöründe istihdamı olumsuz etkilediği görülmüştür. Küreselleşme ve teknolojik ilerlemeler tarım sektöründe istihdamı azaltırken, sanayi ve hizmet sektörlerinde artırıcı etkiye sahiptir. Özellikle hizmet sektöründe AR-GE harcamalarının istihdam üzerindeki olumlu etkisi sanayiye göre daha yüksek bulunmuştur. Sanayi sektöründe ise küreselleşmenin yeni teknolojilerle entegrasyonu destekleyerek istihdam artışını teşvik ettiği gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları, ekonomik politika yapıcıları için küreselleşme ve teknolojik gelişmelerin sektörel istihdam üzerindeki etkilerine dair önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır. Türkiye örneğinde küreselleşme ve teknolojik gelişmenin sektörel istihdam oranları üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin çalışmalar sınırlıdır. Bu çalışma, ARDL ve DOLS tahmincisini kullanarak tarım, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörlerindeki istihdam oranlarını ayrı ayrı analiz ederek literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlamaktadır. Zaman serisi analizlerinde ARDL ve DOLS yöntemlerinin birlikte kullanılması, elde edilen sonuçların doğruluğunu artırması ve daha geniş bir bakış açısı sağlaması açısından önemli bir yenilik sunmaktadır. Bu yöntemlerin kullanılması, küreselleşme ve teknolojik gelişmenin sektörel düzeydeki etkilerinin daha net bir şekilde ortaya konulmasına yardımcı olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küreselleşme
• Teknolojik Gelişme
• Sektörel İstihdam
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

An empirical perspective on sectoral employment dynamics of the Turkish economy through globalisation and technological development: Evidence from ARDL and DOLS methods

Öz

This study aims to examine the effects of globalisation and technological development on sectoral employment in Türkiye. To this end, employment dynamics in the agriculture, industry, and service sectors are analysed using the globalisation index and R&D expenditures as indicators of technological advancement. Using annual data for the period 1991-2021, the study analyses long- and short-term relationships at the sectoral level for Türkiye through ARDL and DOLS estimators. The ARDL model allows for the simultaneous examination of both long-term relationships and short-term dynamics, while the DOLS estimator provides robustness testing for cointegration analysis findings. Accordingly, three separate models were developed for Türkiye's agriculture, industry, and service sectors, each of which was analysed independently. The results indicate that the globalisation index and R&D expenditures negatively impact employment in the agricultural sector. While globalisation and technological advancements reduce employment in agriculture, they positively affect employment in the industry and service sectors. Particularly, the positive effect of R&D expenditures on employment is found to be higher in the service sector than in industry. In the industrial sector, globalisation appears to foster employment growth by supporting the integration of new technologies. The findings provide valuable insights for economic policymakers regarding the effects of globalisation and technological advancements on sectoral employment. Studies focusing on the effects of globalisation and technological development on sectoral employment rates in Türkiye are limited. By analysing employment rates in the agriculture, industry, and service sectors separately using the ARDL and DOLS estimators, this study provides a significant contribution to the literature. The combined use of ARDL and DOLS in time series analysis offers an important innovation, as it enhances the accuracy of results and provides a broader perspective. These methods clarify the sectoral-level impacts of globalisation and technological progress more distinctly.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Globalisation
• Technological Development
• Sectoral Employment
• Time Series Analysis

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