Verim Rassallığı ve Gecikme Yaptırım Maliyetleri: Ülke Dışında Üretim ve Komşu Ülkede Üretim Stratejilerinin Karşılaştırılması

Öz

Pandeminin ulaşım ve sevkiyat süreçlerinde yol açtığı yoğunluk, müşteri sipariş teslim sürelerindeki dalgalanmaların küresel tedarik zincirlerinde yol açabileceği potansiyel zararları ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, gecikmenin yanında teslim edilen ürün sayısının beklenenden az olması durumunda, tedarik zincirindeki hâlihazırda bozulmuş ürün akışı daha da kötüleşmektedir. Bu nedenle, özellikle sipariş teslim sürelerindeki dalgalanmalarla birlikte tecrübe edildiğinde, verim rassallığı, üzerinde durulması gereken bir husustur. Dolayısıyla, tedarikçi seçim mekanizmaları, farklı dış faktör kombinasyonları altında verim ve teslim süresi rassallığını beraber ele alarak tedarikçi performanslarını karşılaştırırsa, daha başarılı seçimler yapılacaktır. Bu etmenler doğrultusunda, tedarikçi seçiminin ortaya koyduğu performansı göstermek amacıyla, Seviye 1 tedarikçisinin Seviye 2 tedarikçisine verdiği bir sipariş için stokastik bir optimizasyon modeli oluşturulmuş; 2ᵏ faktör temsili ile senaryolar üretilerek, üretim veriminin ve ortalama teslim süresinin tedarik zinciri maliyetleri üzerindeki etkisi hesaplanmıştır. Bulgularımız, teslim süresinin artışının toplam tedarik zinciri maliyetleri üzerindeki etkisinin, üretim veriminin artışının etkisinden çok daha büyük olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, ele aldığımız diğer üç dış faktörden en az ikisi — teslimatta eksik olan her ürün başına müşteri tarafından katlanılan maliyet, sipariş verilen toplam ürün miktarı ve ürün başına katlanılan gecikme yaptırım maliyeti — yüksek olduğunda, bu iki tedarikçi performans kriterinin (teslim süresi ve üretim verimi) toplam maliyetler üzerindeki etkilerinin daha baskın hale geldiği tespit edilmiştir. Sayısal analizimiz ayrıca, teslim süresinin rassallığını betimleyen parametrelerin ve olasılık fonksiyonunun doğru tahmin edilmesine yönelik çaba göstermenin çok önemli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Çünkü hatalı varsayımlar, tedarik zinciri maliyetlerinin ciddi şekilde azımsanmasına yol açarak yanıltıcı sonuçlara sebep olabilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ülke dışında üretim
• Komşu Ülkede Üretim
• Rassal Verim
• Rassal Teslim Süresi
• Gecikme Yaptırım Maliyeti

Yield Uncertainty and Tardiness Penalties: A Comparison of Offshoring and Nearshoring

Öz

The extreme congestion caused by the pandemic at shipment routes demonstrated the potential damage fluctuations in customer order lead time could cause in global supply chains. Furthermore, if the order arrives with missing items, it will exacerbate the already disrupted flow of goods in the supply chain. Hence, yield uncertainty needs to be considered, especially when coupled with lead time fluctuations. Thus, supplier selection mechanisms could benefit from a comparison of supplier performances combining yield and lead time uncertainty under different combinations of other factors. To demonstrate the consequences of supplier selection based on these effects, we developed a stochastic optimization model for an order placed by a Tier 1 supplier with a Tier 2 supplier. We generated scenarios via 2k factor representation to calculate the effect of increasing production yield and mean lead time on supply chain costs. We have found that the magnitude of the effect of increasing the lead time on total supply chain costs was much higher than the magnitude of the effect of increasing the production yield. We further found that the magnitude of the effects of these two supplier characteristics was more pronounced if at least two of the other three factors -unit underage cost, order amount, and unit procurement or tardiness cost- were high. Our numerical analysis also demonstrated that it was very important to put effort into estimating lead time parameters and distribution correctly, as making incorrect assumptions could cause severe underestimation of supply chain costs.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nearshoring
• offshoring
• uncertain yield
• uncertain lead time
• tardiness penalty

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