Gelişmiş Batı Ülkelerinde Suç Oranlarının Düşmesinde Etkili Olan Faktörler (1990-2008)

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 433 - 478, 21.10.2021

Zahir Kızmaz

https://doi.org/10.26650/JPLC2021-949329

Öz

Gelişmiş ülkelerde son dönemlerde gözlemlenen önemli gelişmelerden biri, suç oranlarındaki düşüşlerdir. Özellikle 1960’lı yıllardan itibaren gelişmiş bazı batı ülkelerinde suç oranları giderek artmaya başlamış ve 1990’lı yılların başında en yüksek değere ulaşmıştır. Ancak bu dönemden sonra suç oranları giderek düşmeye başlamıştır. Öyle ki ABD’de aynı yıllarda kasten öldürme suç oranları 1991 - 2001 yılları arasında %43 düşüşle en düşük seviyelerine inmiştir. Aynı dönemde şiddet suçlarında %34 ve mala yönelik suçlarda da %29 düşüş gerçekleşmiştir. 1990 - 2005 yıllarını kapsayan 53 gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde kasten öldürme suçu üzerine yapılan bir çalışmada da çoğu ülkede bu suç türünde düşüşlerin yaşandığı gözlemlenmiştir. Suç oranlarında meydana gelen düşüşler sadece şiddet suçları ile sınırlı kalmamıştır. Bu makale ABD ve gelişmiş bazı batı ülkelerinde 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren suç oranlarında meydana gelen dramatik düşüşlere ve bunun sosyo-ekonomik, demografik, kültürel ve hukuksal nedenlerine odaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada faktörlerden hangilerinin suç oranlarındaki düşüşü daha iyi açıklayabildiği, ABD ve bazı batı ülkelerindeki suç oranlarının düşmesinde etkili olduğu varsayılan faktörlerin ne düzeyde bir benzerlik veya farklılık oluşturduğu hususu irdelenecektir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Suç düşüşü, suç eğilimleri, ABD ve suç, Avrupa ülkeleri ve suç.

Destekleyen Kurum

yok

Proje Numarası

yok

Teşekkür

yok

Factors that Caused Decline Crime Rates in Developed Western Countries (1990-2008)

Öz

Recently, one of the most significant changes in developed countries has been the decrease in crime rates. The era following the 1960s particularly witnessed an increase in crime rates in developed western countries, and these rates attained their peaks in several countries around the early and mid-1990s. However, following this period, incidents of crime began declining gradually. Furthermore, USA experienced a 43% decline in homicide rates between 1991- 2001. During this period, the overall incidents of violent and property crimes decreased by 34% and 29%, respectively. In a study conducted on murder trends in 53 developed and developing countries spanning the years 1990–2005, a decrease in homicide rates was noted in most of the countries that had been studied. Undoubtedly, this decline is not limited to violent crimes. This article focuses on the significant decline in crime rates in developed western countries—especially in the USA and European countries—since the 1990s and elucidates the socio-economic, demographic, cultural, and legal causes of such a decline. The current study seeks to determine which of these factors are the primary causes of a decline in crime rates and the extent to which the factors considered effective in lowering the crime rates in the United States and other western countries are similar or different.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Crime decline, crime trends, the USA and crime, European countries and crime

Proje Numarası

yok

Kaynakça

• Aebi, M. F. (2004). “Crime Trends in Western Europe from 1990 to 2000”. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 10 (2-3): 163-186. google scholar
• Aebi, M. F. ve Linde, A. (2010). “Is There a Crime Drop in Western Europe?”. European Journal of Policy and Research 16: 251-277. google scholar
• Aebi, M. F. ve Linde, A. (2012). “Conviction Statistics as an Indicator of Crime Trends in Europe from 1990 to 2006”. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 18 (1): 103-144. google scholar
• Aebi, M. F. ve Linde, A. (2014). “The Persistence of Lifestyles: Rates and Correlates of Homicide in Western Europe From 1960 to 2010”. European Journal of Criminology 11 (5): 552-77. google scholar
• Arcidiacono, E. ve Selmini, R. (2010). “Are Crime Rates Falling in Italy?”, Newsletter of The European Society of Criminolog, Esc Criminology in Europe 9, https://www.esc-eurocrim.org /images/esc/newsletters/ ESC_9_1_ 2010.pdf, (07.01.2021) google scholar
• Arvanites, T.M. ve Defina, R.H. (2006). “Business Cycles and Street Crime”, Criminology 44(1): 139- 64. google scholar
• Ayres, I ve Donohue, J. (2003). “Shooting Down the ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis.” Stanford Law Review 55 (4): 193-312. google scholar
• Baumer, E. P. (2008). “An Empirical Assessment of the Contemporary Crime Trends Puzzle: A Modest Step google scholar
• Toward a More Comprehensive Research Agenda”. İçinde Goldberger, A. ve Rosenfeld, R. (Eds.), Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report (127-176). National Academic Press. google scholar
• Baumer, E. P., ve Wolff, K. T. (2014). “Evaluating Contemporary Crime Drop(s) in America, New York City, and Many Other Places”. Justice Quarterly 31 (1): 5-38. google scholar
• Baumer, E. P., Velez, M. B. ve Rosenfeld, R. (2018). “Bringing Crime Trends Back into Criminology: A Critical Assessment of The Literature and a Blueprint for Future Inquiry”. Annual Review of Criminology 1: 39-61. google scholar
• Becker, G. (1968). “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach”. Journal of Political Economy 76 (2):169-217. google scholar
• Bennett, T. (1998). “Crime Prevention”. İçinde Tonry, M. (ed.). The Handbook of Crime &Punishment (s.369-402) New York: Oxford University Press. google scholar
• Blumstein, A. ve Rosenfeld, R. (1998). “Explaining Recent Trends in U.S. Homicide Rates.” Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology. 88 (4):1175-216. google scholar
• Blumstein, A., ve Wallman, J. (2006). The Crime Drop in America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
• Blumstein A. ve Rosenfeld R. (2008). “Factors Contributing to U.S. Crime Trends. İçinde Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report”. National Research Council Committee on Understanding Crime Trends, Committee on Law and Justice, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 13-43. google scholar
• Blumstein, A. (2006). “The Crime Drop in America: An Exploration of Some Recent Crime Trends”, Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 7 (1) :17-35 google scholar
• Braga, A.A., Weisburd, D. L. , Waring, E., Mazerolle, L. G., Spelman,W. ve Gajewski, F. (1999). “Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Exeriment”. Criminology 37:541-80. google scholar
• Braga, A. A. (2001). “The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime”. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 578: 104-125 google scholar
• Braga, A. A. (2005), “Hot Spots Policing and Crime Prevention: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials”. Journal of Experimental Criminology 1: 317-342 google scholar
• Braga, A.A., Kennedy, D. M., Waring,E. J. ve Piehl, A. M. (2001). “Problem-Oriented Policing, Deterrence, and Youth Violence: An Evaluatıon of Boston’s Operation Ceasefire”, Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 38 (3): 195-225. google scholar
• Buonanno, P., Drago, F., Galbiati, R., ve Zanella, G. (2011). “Crime in Europe and the United States: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”. Economic Policy 26: 347-385. google scholar
• Britton, A., Kershaw, C., Osborne, S. ve Smith, K. (2012). “Underlying Patterns Within The England Andwales Crime Drop”, İçinde Van Dijk, J., Tseloni, A. ve Farrell, G. (Eds),The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 159-81. google scholar
• Callahan, C., Rivera, F. ve Koepsell, T. (1994). “Money For Guns: Evaluation of the Seattle Gun Buy-Back Program”, Public Health Reports, 109 (4):472-77. google scholar
• Cavadino, M. ve Dignan, J. (2006). Penal Policy and Political Economy’, Criminology and Criminal Justice 6(4): 435- 56. google scholar
• Chenı, X. Ve Zhong, H. (2021). “Development and Crime Drop: A Time-Series Analysis of Crime Rates in Hong Kong in the Last Three Decades”. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 65(4): 409-433 google scholar
• Chermak, S. ve McGarrell, E. (2004). “Problem-Solving Approaches to Homicide: An Evaluationof the Indianapolis Violence Reduction Partnership”. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 15 (2): 161-192 google scholar
• Christie, N. (2000). Crime Control as Industry: Towards Gulags Western Style, New York: Routledge. google scholar
• Clarke, R. V. (1997). Situational Crime Prevention: Succesful Case Studies, New York: Harrow and Hosten google scholar
• Clarke, R. V. (1995). “Situatioanl Crime Prevention”, İçinde Tonry, M. ve Farrington, D. (Eds) Strategic Approache to Crime Prevention, Building Safer Society: Strategic Approaches to Crime Prevention, Chicago ve London: The University of Chicago Press. 19: 91-151. google scholar
• Clarke, R. V. ve Eck, J. E. (2005). Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers in 60 Small Steps, USA: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) google scholar
• Conklin, John E. (2013). Why Crimes Rates Fell. USA: Pearson Education. google scholar
• Cook, P. ve Laub, J (1998). “The Unprecedented Epidemic in Youth Violence,”. İçinde Tonry, M. (Ed). Crime and Justice: An AnnualReview of Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 26-64. google scholar
• Dezhbakhsh, H., Rubin, P ve Shepherd, J. (2002). “Does Capital Punishment Have a Deterrent Effect? New Evidence from Post-Moratorium Panel Data.” Mimeo, Emory University. google scholar
• Donohue, J.J. (2009). Assessing the Relative Benefits of Incarceration: The Overall Change over the Previous Decades and the Benefits on the Margin, İçinde Raphael, S. ve Stoll, M ( eds). Do Prisons Make Us Safer? The Benefits and Costs of the Prison Boom, 269- 303 google scholar
• Donohue, J. ve Levitt, S. (2001). “Legalized Abortion and Crime.” Quarterly Journal of Economics. 116 (2): 379-420. google scholar
• Duggan, M. (2001). “More Guns, More Crime.” Journal ofPolitical Economy. 109 (5): 1086-1114. google scholar
• Eck, J. E. ve Spelman, W. (1987). Problem Solving: Problem-Oriented Policing in Newport News. Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum. google scholar
• Ehrlich, I. (1975). “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death.” American Economic Review, 65(3): 397-417. google scholar
• Eisner, M. (2008). “Modernity Strikes Back? a Historical Perspective on the Latest Increase in Interpersonal Violence (1960-1990)”. International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 2: 288-316. google scholar
• Ellen, I. G. ve O’Regan, K. (2009). “Crime and U.S. Cities: Recent Patterns and Implications”. Annals of the Amerian Academy ofPolitical and Social Science, 626:22-38 google scholar
• Farrell, G. (2013). “Five Test for a Theory of the Crime Drop”. Crime Science 2(5): 1-8. google scholar
• Farrell, G., Tilley, N., Tseloni, A. ve Mailey, J. (2008).“The Crime Drop and The Security Hypothesis”. British Society of Criminology Newsletter 62: 17-21 google scholar
• Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., Mailey, J. ve Tilley, N. (2011).“The Crime Drop and The Security Hypothesis”. Journal ofResearch in Crime and Delinquency, 48 (2): 147-75 google scholar
• Farrell, G., Tilley, N.,Tseloni, A. ve Mailley, J. (2010). “Explaining and Sustaining the Crime Drop: Clarifying the Role of Opportunity-Related Theories”. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 12 (1): 24-41. google scholar
• Farrell, G., Tilley, N. ve Tseloni, A. (2014). “Why the crime drop?” Crime and Justice, 43(1): 421-490. google scholar
• Farrington, D. P. (2003), “Developmental and Life-Course Criminology: Key The Theoretical and Empirical Issues-The 2002 Sutherland Award Address”, Criminology 41 (2): 221-255. google scholar
• Farrington, D. P., Langan, P.A. ve Tonry, M. (2004). Cross-National Studies in Crime and Justice. US Department ofJustice, Office ofJustice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Washington DC google scholar
• Felson, M. ve Clarke, R. L. (1998), “Oppurtunity Makes the Thief: Practical Theory for Crime Prevention”, Police Research Series Paper 9, Vol. 98, London: Home Office. google scholar
• Flatley, J., Kershaw, C., Smith, K., Chaplin, R. ve Moon, D. (2010). Crime in England and Wales 2009/10, Home Office Statistical Bulletin, London: Research, Development and Statistics. google scholar
• Fox, J. A. (2000). “Demographics and US Homicide”. İçinde Blumstein, A. ve Wallman, J. (eds.) The Crime Drop in America. New York: Cambridge University Press, 288-317. google scholar
• François, A., Magni-Berton, R. Ve Weill, L. (2014). “Abortion and Crime: Cross-Country Evidence From Europe”. International Review ofLaw and Economics 40: 24-35 google scholar
• Garland, D. (2001). The Culture of Control: Crime and Social Order in Contemporary Society, Oxford: Oxford University Press google scholar
• Garner, C., (2015). “A Local Case Study of The Crime Decline”. Safer Communities. 14 (2):104-114 google scholar
• Goldstein, H. (1979). “Improving Policing: A Problem-Oriented Approach.” Crime & Delinquency 25(2):236-258 google scholar
• Goldstein, H. (1990). Problem-Oriented Policing. Philadelphia: Temple University Press. google scholar
• Graham, J. ve Bennett, T. (1995). Crime Prevention Strategies in Europe and North America. New York: Criminal Justice Press google scholar
• Hope, T. (1995). Community Crime Prevention. Building a Safer Society: Strategic Approaches to Crime Prevention. İçinde Tonry, M ve Farrington, D.P. (eds.). Crime and Justice: A Review of Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 21-89 google scholar
• Kahane, L., Paton, D. ve Simmons, R. (2007). “The Abortion-Crime Link: Evidence from England and Wales”, Economica, 75 (297) google scholar
• Kennedy, D., Pieh, A. l ve Braga, A. (1996). “Youth Violence in Boston: Gun Markets, Serious Youth Offenders, and a Use Reduction Strategy”, Law and Contemporary Problems 59 (1):147-83. google scholar
• Kızmaz, Z. (2003). “Ekonomik Yapı ve Suç: Bazı Araştırma Bulguları Üzerine Genel Bir Değerlendirme”. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 13 (2): 279-304 google scholar
• Kızmaz, Z. (2006a). “Suçun Önemli Belirleyenleri Olarak İktisadi Etkenler: İşsizlik ve Suç İlişkisine Sosyolojik Bir Bakış”, Polis Bilimleri Dergisi (1): 73-90 google scholar
• Kızmaz, Z. (2006b). Cezaevi Müdavimleri, Ankara: Orion Yay. google scholar
• Kızmaz, Z. ve Bilgin, R. (2012). Hırsızlık: Suçlular, Nedenler ve Dinamikler, Ankara: Polis Akademisi Yay. google scholar
• Kızmaz, Z. (2020). Suç Önleme: Çağdaş Yaklaşımlar, Ankara: Nobel Yay. google scholar
• Killias, M. ve Aebi, M. F. (2000). “Crime trends in Europe from 1990 to 1996: How Europe İllustrates the Limits of The American Experience”. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 8(1): 43-63. google scholar
• Killias, M. ve Aebi, M. F. (2010). “Is There a Crime Drop in Western Europe?”. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 16:251-277 google scholar
• Knepper, P. (2012), “An International Crime Decline: Lessons for Social Welfare Crime Policy?”, Social Policy &Administration, 46 (4): 359-376 google scholar
• Kuziemko, I. ve Levitt, S. (2004). “An Empirical Analysis of Imprisoning Drug Offenders.” Journal of Public Economics 8: 2043-2066 google scholar
• LaFree, G. (1999). “A Summary and Review Of Cross-National Comparative Studies of Homicide”. İçinde Smith, M. D. ve Zahn, M.A. (Eds.), Homicide: A Sourcebook of Social Research (125-145). Sage: Thousands Oaks [etc.]. google scholar
• LaFree, G., Curtis, K., ve McDowall, D. (2015). “How Effective Are Your “Better Angels?” Assessing Country-Level Declines in Homicide Since 1950”. European Journal of Criminology (12): 482-504. google scholar
• Levitt, S. D. (1996). “The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation”, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 111(2):319-52. google scholar
• Levitt, S. D. (1999). The Limited Role of Changing Age Structure in Explaining Aggregate Crime Rates, Criminology 581- 592. google scholar
• Levitt, S. D. (2004). “Understanding Why Crime Fell in The 1990s: Four Factors That Explain The Decline and Six That Do Not”. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1): 163-190. google scholar
• Levitt, S. D. ve Venkatesh, S. (2000).“An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang’s Finances.” Quarterly Journal of Economics. 115: 755-89. google scholar
• Lott, J. ve Mustard, D. (1997). “Right-to-Carry Concealed Guns and the Importance of Deterrence.” Journal of Legal Studies 26: 1-68. google scholar
• Ludwig, J. (1998). “Concealed Gun Carrying Laws and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel Data”, International Review of Law and Economics, 18: 239-54. google scholar
• Nagin, D. S. ve Farrington, D. P. (1992), “The Onset and Persistence of Offending”, Criminology, 30: 501-523 google scholar
• Marowitz, L. A. (2000). “Why Did the Crime Rate Decrease Through 1999? (And Why Might It Decrease or Increase in 2000 and Beyond)”, Criminal Justice Statistics Center: California Department of Justice. google scholar
• Marvell, T. B. ve Moody, C. E. (1994). “Prison Population Growth and Crime Reduction’ Journal of Quantitative Criminology 10(2): 109-139. google scholar
• Newburn, T. (1997). “Youth, Crime, and Justice”, İçinde Magurie, M., Morgan, R., Reiner, R. (Eds), The Oxford Handbook of Criminology, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 613-660 google scholar
• Pease, K. (1994 ). Crime Prevention. İçinde Maguire, M.,Morgan, R. ve Reiner, R. (eds). The Oxford Handbook of Criminology, Oxford: Clarendon Press google scholar
• Pinker, S. (2019). Doğamızın İyilik Melekleri-Şiddet Neden Azaldı, İstanbul: Alfa yayıncılık google scholar
• Pop-Eleches, C. (2006). “The Impact of an Abortion Ban on Socioeconomic Outcomes of Children: Evidence from Romania”. Journal of Political Economy 114 (4): 744-773 google scholar
• Quimet, M. (2004). “Explaining the American and Canadian Crime Drop in the 1990s”. New French Journal of Criminology, http://champpenal.revues.org/document448.html. google scholar
• Reyes, J. W. (2007). “Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 13097, Cambridge, MA. google scholar
• Roeder, O., Lauren-Brooke Eisen, L. K., ve Bowling, J. ( 2015). What Caused the Crime Decline?, New York, NY: Brennan Center for Justice. google scholar
• Rosenbaum, D. P. , Arthur, L. ve Robert, D. C. (1998). The Prevention of Crime: Social and Situational Strategies, Belmont, CA: Wadsworth google scholar
• Rosenfeld, R., ve Messner, S. F. (2009). “The Crime Drop in Comparative Perspective: The Impact of The Economy And Imprisonment on American and European Burglary Rates”, The British Journal of Sociology 60 (3): 445-471. google scholar
• Rosenfeld, R. ve Fornango, R. (2007). ‘The Impact of Economic Conditions on Robbery and Property Crime: The Role of Consumer Sentiment’, Criminology, 45(4): 735-769. google scholar
• Sherman, L. W. ve Rogan, D. P. (1995). “Effects of Gun Seizures on Gun Violence: ‘Hot Spots” Patrol in Kansas City”. Justice Quarterly 12: 673-694 google scholar
• Sherman, L. W. ve Weisburd, D. (1995). “General Deterrent Effects of Policepatrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial”. Justice Quarterly 12: 625-48. google scholar Schneider, S. (2015). Crime Prevetion: Theory and Practice. CRC Press google scholar
• Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics. (2012). https://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/pdf/t31062012.pdf google scholar
• Tseloni A., Mailley J., Farrell G. ve Tilley, N (2010). “Exploring the International Decline in Crime Rates”. European Journal of Criminology 7(5): 375-394. google scholar
• Tonry M. (Ed.) (2010). Why are Crime Rates Falling (or are They?). Criminology in Europe: Newsletter of the European Society of Criminology, 9(1), 3-19. google scholar
• Tonry, M. (2014). “Why Crime Rates Are Falling Throughout the Western World”. İçinde Tonry, M. (Ed). Why Crime Rates Fall and Why They Don’t. Crime & Justice: A Review of Research. (1-63 )Chicago II: University of Chicago Press. google scholar
• UNODC (2013), Global Study On Homicide. Trends, Contexts, Data. United Nations Office On Drugs And Crime, Vienna https://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf google scholar
• Van Dijk, J. (2008). The World of Crime. Breaking the Silence on Problems of Crime, Justice and Development. Thousand Oaks: Sage. google scholar
• Van Dijk, J., Manchin, R., Van Kesteren , J., Hideg, G. ve Navala, S. (2005). The Burden of Crime in the EU. Research Report: A Comparative Analysis of the European Survey of Crime and Safety, Gallup Europe. google scholar
• Van Dijk, J., Van Kesteren, J. ve Smit, P. (2007). Criminal Victimisation in International Perspective. The Hague, Netherlands Ministry of Justice. google scholar
• Van Dijk, J. (2010). “The European Crime Falls: Security Driven?”, Newsletter of The European Society of Criminology, http://escnewsletter.org/sites/escnewsletter.org/files/newsletter/2016/apr2010_9_01escnewsletter. pdf, (31.04.2021). google scholar
• Van Dijk, J., Tseloni, A. ve Farrell, G. (eds) (2012). The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. google scholar
• Weisburd, D. L. ve Green, L. (1995). “Policing Drug Hot Spots: The Jersey City DMA experiment”. Justice Quarterly 12: 711-36. google scholar
• Weiss, D. B., Santos, M. R., Testa, A. ve Kumar, S. (2016). “The 1990s Homicide Decline: A Western World or International Phenomenon? A Research Note”. Homicide Studies, 20: 321-334 google scholar
• Welsh, B. C. ve Farrington, D.P. (2012) (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Crime Prevention. U.K.: Oxford University Press google scholar
• White, M. D., Fyfe, J. J., Campbell, S. P. ve Goldkamp, J. S. (2003), “The Police Role in Preventing Homicide: Considering The Impact of Problem-Oriented Policing on the Prevalence of Murder”. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 40 (2): 194-22 google scholar
• Wilson, J. Q. ve Kelling, G. (1982). “BrokenWindows”. The Atlantic Monthly. March: 29-38. google scholar
• Wolpaw, R. J. (2007). Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 13097. google scholar
• Zimring, F.E. (2006). The Great American Crime Decline, Oxford: Oxford University Press, google scholar