Kredi Portföy Yoğunlaşma Düzeyinin Finansal İstikrar ve Performans Üzerine Etkisi: İkili Bankacılık Sisteminde Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Öz

Çalışmada kredi portföy yoğunlaşmasının hem konvansiyonel hem de İslami bankacılık sisteminde finansal istikrar ve performans üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. 2005–Ocak ile 2021-Aralık döneminin incelendiği çalışmada, kredi portföy yoğunlaşmasının ikili bankacılık sistemi içinde finansal istikrar ve performans üzerindeki uzun ve kısa vadeli etkileri eş bütünleşme testleri aracılığı ile analiz edilmiştir. Konvansiyonel bankacılık sistemi için gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif sınır testi (ARDL), İslami bankacılık sistemi için tamamen geliştirilmiş en küçük kareler (FMOLS), dinamik en küçük kareler DOLS ve kanonik eşbütünleşme regresyonu (CCR) yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışmanın ampirik sonuçlarına göre kredi portföy çeşitlendirilmesinin konvansiyonel bankacılık sisteminde uzun vadede iflas riskini azalttığı, kısa vadede hem pozitif hem de negatif gecikmeli etkilere sahip olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. İslami bankacılık sisteminde ise uzun dönemde bu çeşitlendirmenin finansal istikrar ile bir ilişkisine rastlanılmazken kısa vadede iflas riskini artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bankacılık performansı açısından değerlendirildiğinde kredi portföy çeşitlendirilmesinin uzun ya da kısa vadede ciddi bir etkiye sebep olmadığı ve ikili bankacılık sistemi içerisinde farklılaşmaya yol açmadığı görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kredi riski
• Kredi portföy yoğunlaşma düzeyi
• Finansal performans
• Finansal istikrar
• ARDL sınır testi

The Effect of Loan Portfolio Concentration Level on Financial Stability and Performance: A Comparatıve Analysis in Dual Banking System

Öz

In this study, the effect of loan portfolio concentration on financial stability and performance was investigated in both conventional and Islamic banking systems. In the study examining the period of 2005-January and 2021-December, the long and short-term effects of credit portfolio concentration on financial stability and performance in the bilateral banking system were analyzed by cointegration tests. According to the empirical results, in which ARDL method for the conventional banking system and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) methods for the Islamic banking system were used, it has been found that the diversification of the loan portfolio reduces the bankruptcy risk in the conventional banking system in the long run and it has both positive and negative lagged effects in the short run. In the Islamic banking system, while there is no relationship between this diversification and financial stability in the long run, it has been concluded that it increases the risk of bankruptcy in the short run. When evaluated in terms of banking performance, it is seen that loan portfolio diversification does not cause a serious effect in the long or short term and does not cause differentiation within the bilateral banking system. Keywords: Credit risk, Loan portfolio concentration level, Financial performance, Financial stability, ARDL boundary test

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Credit Risk
• Loan Portfolio Concentratıon Level
• Financial Performance
• Financial Stabilitiy
• ARDL Boundary Test

Kaynakça

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