Türkiye'de Gıda Fiyatlarının Belirleyicileri: Fourier Engle-Granger Eşbütünleşme Testi

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2008M04-2020M08 döneminde Türkiye'de tüketici faiz oranları, reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi ve gıda üretim endeksinin gıda fiyat endeksi üzerindeki etkilerini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Fourier Engle-Granger (FEG) eşbütünleşme testi, uzun dönem katsayı tahmin edicileri ve hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Fourier Granger nedensellik testleri ile incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de ciddi bir sorun haline gelen gıda fiyat endeksindeki artışa neden olan faktörler araştırılırken yeni geliştirilen bir zaman serisi analizi kullanılmıştır. Hem dönem hem de yöntem açısından Türkiye için bu konuda yapılan ilk çalışmadır. FEG eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde tüketici faiz oranları, reel efektif döviz kuru ve gıda üretim endeksinin gıda fiyatları üzerinde anlamlı etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Uzun vadede, gıda üretim endeksindeki %1'lik bir artış gıda fiyat endeksini %0,39 ve %0,33 oranında, reel döviz kurundaki %1'lik bir artış ise gıda fiyat endeksini %0,26 ve %0,25 oranında düşürmektedir. Tüketici faiz oranlarının önemli bir etkisi yoktur. Ayrıca hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Fourier Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi ve gıda üretim endeksinden gıda fiyat endeksine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Çalışma politika yapıcılar için önemli bulgular içermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gıda fiyat endeksi
• Reel efektif döviz kuru
• Tüketici faiz oranı
• Gıda üretim endeksi
• Fourier Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testi

Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test

Öz

This study aims to reveal the effects of consumer interest rates, real effective exchange rate index, and food production index on the food price index in Türkiye, in the date range 2008M04-2020M08. The relationships between the variables were investigated with the Fourier Engle-Granger (FEG) cointegration test, long-run coefficient estimators, and Fourier Granger causality tests based on the error correction model. This study uses a novel developed time series analysis while investigating the factors that cause the increase in the food price index, which has become a serious problem in Türkiye. It is the first study on this subject for Türkiye in terms of the period and the method. According to the FEG cointegration test results, it was determined that consumer interest rates, real effective exchange rates, and food production index significantly affected food prices in the long run. Over the long term, a 1% increase in the food production index decreased the food price index by 0.39% and 0.33%, and a 1% increase in the real exchange rate index reduced the food price index by 0.26% and 0.25%. Consumer interest rates did not have a significant effect. In addition, according to the Fourier Granger causality test results based on the error correction model, causality relationships from the real effective exchange rate index and food production index to the food price index were determined. The study contains important findings for policymakers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Food price index
• Real effective exchange rate
• Consumer interest rates
• Food production index
• Fourier Engle-Granger cointegration test

Kaynakça

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