Düşük enflasyon ve yüksek ekonomik büyüme, ülkelerin temel
makroekonomik hedefleri arasında yer almaktadır. Bu noktada enflasyon
ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki karşılıklı ilişki literatürdeki önemli
tartışmalardan biridir. Erken dönem çalışmalar her ne kadar genel olarak enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisiz olduğu veya büyümeyi pozitif etkilediği görüşünde yoğunlaşsa da
enflasyonun 1970’lerde ve 1980’lerde birçok ülkede artış eğilimi göstermesi enflasyon-ekonomik büyüme tartışmanın
yön değiştirmesine yol açmıştır. Esasında bu tartışmada enflasyonun ekonomik büyümeyi ne yönde etkileyeceği
enflasyon düzeyi ile doğrudan bağlantılıdır. Dolayısıyla belirli bir enflasyon eşik değerinin aşılması durumunda
enflasyonun ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyeceği görüşü öne çıkmaktadır. Bunun yanı sıra ekonomik büyümenin
enflasyona etkisi de enflasyon büyüme tartışmasının diğer boyutunu oluşturmaktadır. Bu çerçevede enflasyon-ekonomik
büyüme sarmalının nedensellik bağlamında incelenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada 1996-2019 döneminde
27 AB ülkesinde enflasyon ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) nedensellik yaklaşımı kullanılarak
incelenmiştir. Analizde enflasyon göstergesi olarak iki değişken kullanılmıştır. Bunlar Tüketici Fiyatları Endeksi (TÜFE) ve
GSYİH deflatörüdür. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre her iki enflasyon göstergesi için de enflasyondan ekonomik büyümeye
ve ekonomik büyümeden enflasyona doğru çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.
Adaramola, A. O., & Dada, O. (2020). Impact of inflation on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(2), 1-13. google scholar
Ahmed, M. S. (2010). An Empirical study on İnflation and economic growth in Bangladesh. OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2(3), 41-48. google scholar
Akter, F., & Smith, D. S. (2021). Impact of inflation on GDP growth in Malaysian economy. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 34(2), 33-41. google scholar
Altintaş, H., & Koçbulut, Ö. (2019). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme: OECD ülkeleri için dinamik panel eşik etki analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 15(3), 629-648. google scholar
Anidiobu, G. A., Okolie, P. I., & Oleka, D. C. (2018). Analysis of inflation and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 28-36. google scholar
Ayyoub, M., Chaudhry, I. S., & Farooq, F. (2011). Does inflation affect economic growth? The case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 31(1), 51-64. google scholar
Barışık, S., Türk, M.M. 2020. Türkiye’de 2001 krizi sonrası enflasyon-büyüme etkileşimi, Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 55(3), 2078-2093. google scholar
Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 5326. google scholar
Barro, R. J. (2013). Inflation and Economic Growth. Annals of Economics & Finance, 14(1), 85-109 google scholar
Behera, J. (2014). Inflation and its impact on economic growth: Evidence from six south Asian Countries. Journal ofEconomics and Sustainable Development, 5(7), 145-154. google scholar
Behera, J., & Mishra, A. K. (2016). Inflation and economic growth nexus in BRICS: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach. Asian Journal ofEconomic Modelling, 4(1), 1-17. google scholar
Berber, M., & Artan, S. (2004). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Discussion Paper, No. 2004/21 google scholar
Bhusal, T. P., & Silpakar, S. (2011). Growth and inflation: Estimation of threshold point for Nepal. Economic Journal ofDevelopment, 13(2), 131-138. google scholar
Bruno, M., & Easterly, W. (1995). Inflation crises and long-run growth. World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper No. 1517. google scholar
Chimobi, O. P. (2010). Inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development, 3(2), 159166. google scholar
Datta, K., & Mukhopadhyay, C. K. (2011). Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Malaysia-an econometric review. International Conference on Economics and Finance Research, 4(1), 415-419. google scholar
De Gregorio, J. (1993). Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth. Journal ofMonetary Economics, 31, 271-298. google scholar
Denbel, F. S., Ayen, Y. W., & Regasa, T. A. (2016). The relationship between inflation, money supply and economic growth in Ethiopia: Co-integration and causality analysis. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 6(1), 556-565. google scholar
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. google scholar
Erçel, G. (1999). Türkiye’de enflasyon ve büyüme ilişkisi: Genel bir değerlendirme. İMKB Dergisi, 12, 15-30. google scholar
Fisher, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal ofMonetary Economics, 32, 485-512. google scholar
Ghosh, A., & Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: inflation may be harmful to your growth. Washington: International Monetary Fund. google scholar
Gokal, V., & Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship between inflation and economic growth. Suva: Economics Department, Reserve Bank of Fiji Working Paper, No. 2004/04 google scholar
Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115(1), 31-34. google scholar
Hossain, A. (2005). The Granger-causality between money growth, inflation, currency devaluation and economic growth in Indonesia: 1954-2002. International Journal ofApplied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2(3), 45-68. google scholar
Hussain, S., & Malik, S. (2011). Inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 262-276. google scholar
Kanca, O. C. (2017). İç borçlanma, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye için ekonometrik bir uygulama (19802014). Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 627, 47-58. google scholar
Karabulut, Ş. (2019). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon ilişkisi. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(2), 171-184. google scholar
Karaca, O. (2003). Türkiye’de enflasyon-büyüme ilişkisi: Zaman serisi analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), 247-255. google scholar
Karaçor, Z., Özer, H., & Saraç, Taha B. (2011) Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama (1988-2007). Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(2), 29-44. google scholar
Kasidi, F., & Mwakanemela, K. (2013). Impact of inflation on economic growth: A case study of Tanzania. Asian Journal of EmpiricalResearch, 3(4), 363-380. google scholar
Khan, M. A., & Khan, S. (2018). Inflation and the economic growth: Evidence from Five Asian countries. Pakistan Journal ofApplied Economics, 28(2), 235-252. google scholar
Khan, M. S., & Senhadji. A. S., (2000). Threshold Effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Working Paper No. 110, Washington: International Monetary Fund google scholar
Kopuk, E. (2020). İşsizlik ve enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: 1988-2019 dönemi Türkiye incelemesi. IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Özel Sayı, 11-22. google scholar
Korkulu, A., & Yılmaz, B. (2017). Türkiye’de büyüme-enflasyon ilişkisi: Granger nedensellik analizi (1939-2013). International Journal ofAcademic Value Studies, 3(13), 85-93. google scholar
Koulakiotis, A., Lyroudi, K., & Papasyriopoulos, N. (2012). Inflation, GDP and causality for European countries. International Advances in Economic Research, 18(1), 53-62. google scholar
Majumder, S. C. (2016). Inflation and its impacts on economic growth of Bangladesh. American Journal of Marketing Research, 2(1), 17-26. google scholar
Manamperi, N. (2014). The short and long-run dynamics between inflation and economic growth in BRICS. Applied Economics Letters, 21(2), 140-145. google scholar
Mubarik, Y. A. (2005). Inflation and growth: An estimate of the threshold level of inflation in Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan — Research Bulletin, 1 (1-2), 35 44. google scholar
Munir, Q., Mansur, K., & Furuoka, F. (2009). Inflation and economic growth in Malaysia: A threshold regression approach. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(2), 180-193. google scholar
Niyimbanira, F. (2013). An econometric evidence of the interactions between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 4(13), 177-193. google scholar
Obradovic, S., Sapic, S., Furtula, S., & Lojanica, N. (2017). Linkages between inflation and economic growth in Serbia: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Engineering Economics, 28(4), 401-410. google scholar
Olamide, E., Ogujiuba, K., & Maredza, A. (2022). Exchange rate volatility, inflation and economic growth in Developing countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC. Economies, 10(3), 67. google scholar
Opeyemi, A. F. (2020). Impact of foreign direct investment and inflation on economic growth of five randomly selected countries in Africa. Journal ofEconomics and International Finance, 12(2), 65-73. google scholar
Özçelik, Ö., & Uslu, N. (2017). Ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin VAR modeli ile analizi: Türkiye örneği (2007-2014). Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 69, 31-51. google scholar
Pata, U. K. (2018). Türkiye’de enflasyon, tasarruf ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 92-111. google scholar
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Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries
Low inflation and high economic growth are two of the main
macroeconomic targets that all countries hope to reach. The reciprocal
relationship between inflation and growth is currently an important
debate in the literature. Although early studies generally focused on
the view that inflation had no effect on growth or that it had a positive
effect on growth, the upward trend of inflation in many countries in the
1970s and 1980s led to a change in direction in the inflation-growth
debate. This discussion shows that the way inflation affects growth is
directly related to its level. Therefore, if a certain inflation threshold value
is exceeded, the view that inflation will affect growth negatively comes to
the fore. In addition, the effect of economic growth on inflation is another
dimension of the inflation-growth debate. In this context, it is important
to examine the inflation growth spiral in the context of causality. In this
study, the relationship between inflation and growth was investigated
between the years 1996 and 2019 in 27 EU countries using Dumitrescu
and Hurlin (2012) causality approach. In the analysis, two variables were
used as an indicator of inflation. These are consumer prices Index (CPI)
and GDP deflator. The results show that there is a bidirectional causality
relationship from inflation to growth and from growth to inflation for
both inflation indicators.
Adaramola, A. O., & Dada, O. (2020). Impact of inflation on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(2), 1-13. google scholar
Ahmed, M. S. (2010). An Empirical study on İnflation and economic growth in Bangladesh. OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2(3), 41-48. google scholar
Akter, F., & Smith, D. S. (2021). Impact of inflation on GDP growth in Malaysian economy. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 34(2), 33-41. google scholar
Altintaş, H., & Koçbulut, Ö. (2019). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme: OECD ülkeleri için dinamik panel eşik etki analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 15(3), 629-648. google scholar
Anidiobu, G. A., Okolie, P. I., & Oleka, D. C. (2018). Analysis of inflation and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 28-36. google scholar
Ayyoub, M., Chaudhry, I. S., & Farooq, F. (2011). Does inflation affect economic growth? The case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 31(1), 51-64. google scholar
Barışık, S., Türk, M.M. 2020. Türkiye’de 2001 krizi sonrası enflasyon-büyüme etkileşimi, Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 55(3), 2078-2093. google scholar
Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 5326. google scholar
Barro, R. J. (2013). Inflation and Economic Growth. Annals of Economics & Finance, 14(1), 85-109 google scholar
Behera, J. (2014). Inflation and its impact on economic growth: Evidence from six south Asian Countries. Journal ofEconomics and Sustainable Development, 5(7), 145-154. google scholar
Behera, J., & Mishra, A. K. (2016). Inflation and economic growth nexus in BRICS: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach. Asian Journal ofEconomic Modelling, 4(1), 1-17. google scholar
Berber, M., & Artan, S. (2004). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Discussion Paper, No. 2004/21 google scholar
Bhusal, T. P., & Silpakar, S. (2011). Growth and inflation: Estimation of threshold point for Nepal. Economic Journal ofDevelopment, 13(2), 131-138. google scholar
Bruno, M., & Easterly, W. (1995). Inflation crises and long-run growth. World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper No. 1517. google scholar
Chimobi, O. P. (2010). Inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development, 3(2), 159166. google scholar
Datta, K., & Mukhopadhyay, C. K. (2011). Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Malaysia-an econometric review. International Conference on Economics and Finance Research, 4(1), 415-419. google scholar
De Gregorio, J. (1993). Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth. Journal ofMonetary Economics, 31, 271-298. google scholar
Denbel, F. S., Ayen, Y. W., & Regasa, T. A. (2016). The relationship between inflation, money supply and economic growth in Ethiopia: Co-integration and causality analysis. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 6(1), 556-565. google scholar
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. google scholar
Erçel, G. (1999). Türkiye’de enflasyon ve büyüme ilişkisi: Genel bir değerlendirme. İMKB Dergisi, 12, 15-30. google scholar
Fisher, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal ofMonetary Economics, 32, 485-512. google scholar
Ghosh, A., & Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: inflation may be harmful to your growth. Washington: International Monetary Fund. google scholar
Gokal, V., & Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship between inflation and economic growth. Suva: Economics Department, Reserve Bank of Fiji Working Paper, No. 2004/04 google scholar
Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115(1), 31-34. google scholar
Hossain, A. (2005). The Granger-causality between money growth, inflation, currency devaluation and economic growth in Indonesia: 1954-2002. International Journal ofApplied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2(3), 45-68. google scholar
Hussain, S., & Malik, S. (2011). Inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 262-276. google scholar
Kanca, O. C. (2017). İç borçlanma, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye için ekonometrik bir uygulama (19802014). Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 627, 47-58. google scholar
Karabulut, Ş. (2019). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon ilişkisi. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(2), 171-184. google scholar
Karaca, O. (2003). Türkiye’de enflasyon-büyüme ilişkisi: Zaman serisi analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), 247-255. google scholar
Karaçor, Z., Özer, H., & Saraç, Taha B. (2011) Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama (1988-2007). Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(2), 29-44. google scholar
Kasidi, F., & Mwakanemela, K. (2013). Impact of inflation on economic growth: A case study of Tanzania. Asian Journal of EmpiricalResearch, 3(4), 363-380. google scholar
Khan, M. A., & Khan, S. (2018). Inflation and the economic growth: Evidence from Five Asian countries. Pakistan Journal ofApplied Economics, 28(2), 235-252. google scholar
Khan, M. S., & Senhadji. A. S., (2000). Threshold Effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Working Paper No. 110, Washington: International Monetary Fund google scholar
Kopuk, E. (2020). İşsizlik ve enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: 1988-2019 dönemi Türkiye incelemesi. IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Özel Sayı, 11-22. google scholar
Korkulu, A., & Yılmaz, B. (2017). Türkiye’de büyüme-enflasyon ilişkisi: Granger nedensellik analizi (1939-2013). International Journal ofAcademic Value Studies, 3(13), 85-93. google scholar
Koulakiotis, A., Lyroudi, K., & Papasyriopoulos, N. (2012). Inflation, GDP and causality for European countries. International Advances in Economic Research, 18(1), 53-62. google scholar
Majumder, S. C. (2016). Inflation and its impacts on economic growth of Bangladesh. American Journal of Marketing Research, 2(1), 17-26. google scholar
Manamperi, N. (2014). The short and long-run dynamics between inflation and economic growth in BRICS. Applied Economics Letters, 21(2), 140-145. google scholar
Mubarik, Y. A. (2005). Inflation and growth: An estimate of the threshold level of inflation in Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan — Research Bulletin, 1 (1-2), 35 44. google scholar
Munir, Q., Mansur, K., & Furuoka, F. (2009). Inflation and economic growth in Malaysia: A threshold regression approach. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(2), 180-193. google scholar
Niyimbanira, F. (2013). An econometric evidence of the interactions between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 4(13), 177-193. google scholar
Obradovic, S., Sapic, S., Furtula, S., & Lojanica, N. (2017). Linkages between inflation and economic growth in Serbia: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Engineering Economics, 28(4), 401-410. google scholar
Olamide, E., Ogujiuba, K., & Maredza, A. (2022). Exchange rate volatility, inflation and economic growth in Developing countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC. Economies, 10(3), 67. google scholar
Opeyemi, A. F. (2020). Impact of foreign direct investment and inflation on economic growth of five randomly selected countries in Africa. Journal ofEconomics and International Finance, 12(2), 65-73. google scholar
Özçelik, Ö., & Uslu, N. (2017). Ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin VAR modeli ile analizi: Türkiye örneği (2007-2014). Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 69, 31-51. google scholar
Pata, U. K. (2018). Türkiye’de enflasyon, tasarruf ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 92-111. google scholar
Paul, S., Kearney, C., & Chowdhury, K. (1997). Inflation and economic growth: A multi-country empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1387-1401. google scholar
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. google scholar
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. google scholar
Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. google scholar
Pollin, R., & Zhu, A. (2006). Inflation and economic growth: A cross-country nonlinear analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28(4), 593-614. google scholar
Rao, P. N., & Yesigat, A. (2015). Inflation and economic growth: inflation threshold level analysis for Ethiopia. International Journal of Ethics in Engineering & Management Education, 2(5), 1-22 google scholar
Risso, W. A., & Carrera, E. J. S. (2009). Inflation and Mexican economic growth: Long-run relation and threshold effects. Journal ofFinancial Economic Policy, 1(3), 246-263. google scholar
Rivera, E. G., Rojo, L. A. P., & Gomez, D. X. G. (2020). Analysis of the performance of the inflation and economic growth goals for Latin America. Journal ofAdministrative Science, 1(2), 22-32. google scholar
Sa’idu, B. M., & Muhammad, A. A. (2015). Do unemployment and inflation substantially affect economic growth. Journal ofEconomics and Development Studies, 3(2), 132-139. google scholar
Sahnoun, M., & Abdennadher, C. (2019). Causality between inflation, economic growth and unemployment in North African Countries. Economic Alternatives, 1, 77-92. google scholar
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Özyılmaz, A. (2022). Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(2), 425-438. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1132170
AMA
Özyılmaz A. Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries. JEPR. Temmuz 2022;9(2):425-438. doi:10.26650/JEPR1132170
Chicago
Özyılmaz, Ayfer. “Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 9, sy. 2 (Temmuz 2022): 425-38. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1132170.
EndNote
Özyılmaz A (01 Temmuz 2022) Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 9 2 425–438.
IEEE
A. Özyılmaz, “Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries”, JEPR, c. 9, sy. 2, ss. 425–438, 2022, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1132170.
ISNAD
Özyılmaz, Ayfer. “Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 9/2 (Temmuz 2022), 425-438. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1132170.
JAMA
Özyılmaz A. Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries. JEPR. 2022;9:425–438.
MLA
Özyılmaz, Ayfer. “Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 9, sy. 2, 2022, ss. 425-38, doi:10.26650/JEPR1132170.
Vancouver
Özyılmaz A. Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries. JEPR. 2022;9(2):425-38.