Altyapı ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2023, , 361 - 393, 02.08.2023

Sedef Şen , Tuğba Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1134343

Öz

Altyapı yatırımları ve hizmetlerinin iktisadi büyüme üzerinde etkili olduğu birçok akademisyen ve politika yapıcılar tarafından kabul edilmektedir. Ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyine göre altyapı yatırımlarına bakış açısı farklılaşmaktadır. Birçok gelişmiş ülkenin altyapı sistemi doygunluk seviyesinde olduğu için bu ülkelerde altyapı yatırımları genellikle hali hazırdaki altyapı stokunda iyileştirmeler yapma şeklinde ortaya çıkmaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ülke grubu içesinde yer alan birçok orta gelirli ülkelerde ise mevcut altyapı yatırımları yetersizdir. Bu sebeple yeni altyapı yatırım ve hizmetlerinin sağlanması gerekmektedir. Sonuç olarak, ülkelerin gelir durumları altyapı yatırımlarının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini göstermede göz önüne alınması gereken önemli bir ölçüt olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Gelişmiş ve özellikle Afrika bölgesindeki gelişmemiş ülkeler için altyapı ve iktisadi büyüme ilişkisini ortaya çıkarmak amacıyla yapılan çalışmalar sayıca fazla olmasına rağmen, orta gelire sahip ülkelerde bu ilişkinin yeterli derecede ele alınmadığı görülmektedir. Bu sebeple, bu çalışmada 2011- 2020 yılları için üst orta gelir grubundaki ülkeler göz önünde bulundurularak altyapının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkisi Barro’ya (1990) dayanan içsel büyüme modeli çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Ekonomik altyapı türleri olarak bilinen ulaşım, telekomünikasyon ve enerji ayrı ayrı ele alınarak dinamik panel veri yöntemlerinden biri olan sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi tahmincisi ile analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçlarına göre telekomünikasyon ve enerji altyapısının iktisadi büyüme üzerinde etkili olduğu ancak ulaşımın iktisadi büyüme üzerinde etkili olmadığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca altyapıyı temsilen gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumunun göz önüne alındığı modellerde de istatistiksel olarak pozitif ve anlamlı sonuçlara erişilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İktisadi büyüme, Altyapı yatırımları, Kamu harcamaları, Mali politika, Panel Veri

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Infrastructure and Economic Growth

Öz

Many academics and policymakers accept that infrastructure investments and services impact economic growth. The point of view on infrastructure investments differs according to the development level of the countries. Since the infrastructure systems of many developed countries are at the saturation level, infrastructure investments in these countries generally occur in the form of improvements in the existing infrastructure stock. In many middleincome countries within the developing country group, existing infrastructure investments are insufficient. For this reason, it is necessary to provide new infrastructure investments and services. As a result, the income level of countries emerges as an important criterion to be considered in showing the effects of infrastructure investments on economic growth. Although many studies are conducted to reveal the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth for developed and underdeveloped countries (especially in the African region), this relationship is not adequately addressed in middle-income countries. For this reason, in this study, the effect of infrastructure on economic growth was examined within the framework of an endogenous growth model based on Barro (1990), considering uppermiddle- income countries for the years 2011-2020. By considering transportation, telecommunications, and energy, known as economic infrastructure types, analyses were carried out with the system GMM estimator, which is one of the dynamic panel data methods. Estimation results show that telecommunications and energy infrastructure have an effect on economic growth, but transportation does not. In addition, statistically positive and significant results have been achieved in the models in which gross fixed capital formation represents the infrastructure.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, Infrastructure investment, Government expenditure, Fiscal policy, Panel data

Kaynakça

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