Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansına Etkisi: ARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Covid-19 salgınının dış ticareti derinden etkilediği ülkelerden biri Türkiye’dir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 salgınının Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini, farklı Covid-19 değişkenleri ile analiz etmektir. Covid-19 salgınının ihracat üzerindeki etkisi ampirik olarak ARDL yöntemi ile analiz edilmiş olup analiz dönemi 2013:q1-2022:q2 aralığını kapsamaktadır. Altı modelin de tahmin sonuçları, Covid-19 salgınının uzun vadede Türkiye’nin ihracatını etkilemediğini fakat gecikmeli değerlerin kısa vadede ihracatı negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilediğini göstermektedir. Dış dünya gelirinin ise kısa ve uzun dönemde ihracat üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, döviz kuru hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ihracatı önemli derecede olumsuz etkilemektedir. Farklı Covid-19 değişkenleri ile yapılan analizin sonuçları birbirini destekler niteliktedir. Bununla birlikte Covid-19, ihracat üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini kısa dönemde göstermektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, sadece cari göstergeleri değil değişkenlerin gecikmeleri etkilerini de göz önünde bulundurmalıdır. Sonuçlar aynı zamanda kısa ve uzun vadeli ilişkileri görmek için kısa ve uzun dönemli tahminlerin de yapılması gerektiğini desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• ihracat performansı
• arz zinciri
• karantina önlemleri
• ARDL yöntemi

Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Öz

Türkiye is a country in which the COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected export performance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish export performance using different variables indicating the severity of the COVID-19 effects. The effect of COVID-19 on Türkiye’s export performance is empirically analysed with the ARDL approach by employing time series data covering the 2013:q1-2022:q1 period. The estimation results of the six models indicate that COVID-19 does not affect Turkish export performance in the long term, whereas its lagged variables have negative and significant effects in the short term. Foreign income has positive and statistically significant effects on export volumes in both the short and long term. The exchange rate significantly and negatively affects export flows in both the short and long term. The results of this paper are robust against different types of COVID-19 proxies. COVID-19 has negative effects on exports in the short run for Türkiye’s economy. The results indicate that policymakers should consider the lagged effects of variables in addition to the current version. The findings also show the recommendation that short- and long-run estimations should be conducted to determine the short- and long-run relations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• export performance
• supply chain
• lockdown policies
• ARDL method

Kaynakça

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