The Impact of Trade Openness and Political Stability on Food Security: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Countries

Öz

Food security is a pressing global concern influenced by various factors, including commercial openness and political stability. This study employs panel data analysis to investigate the impact of commercial openness and political stability on food security in selected countries. Panel data analysis offers advantages over cross-sectional or time series methods by providing greater flexibility, enhancing estimation reliability, and addressing issues like multicollinearity. This study explores the intricate relationships between commercial openness, political stability, and food security by utilising a unified framework of econometric methods, including likelihood and two-stage least squares. The analysis also focuses on mitigating the endogeneity bias using empirical moments. In this research, the study explores the influence of trade openness and political stability on food security. While previous literature has separately examined the relationships between food security and political stability, as well as food security and globalisation, there needs to be a more comprehensive analysis integrating both aspects to understand their combined impact on food security. Therefore, the research aims to address this gap by investigating the relationship between political stability and trade openness and food security. The study uses a model tested with data from 96 countries using the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) method. The subsequent sections of the study, specifically chapters 2 and 3, thoroughly analyse the variables under discussion. The findings of the model and the ensuing discussions are then presented. The findings from this study contribute to a deeper understanding of how commercial openness and political stability affect food security, providing valuable insights for policymakers and researchers striving to enhance global food security. JEL Classification : C33 , F14 , Q18

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Food Security
• Trade Openness
• Political Stability
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Abdul Manap, Nur, and Normaz Ismail. (2019). "Food Security and Economic Growth." International Journal of Modern Trends in Social Sciences 108-18. doi: 10.35631/IJMTSS.280011. google scholar
2. Allison, Paul D. (1994). "Using Panel Data to Estimate the Effects of Events." Sociological Methods & Research 23(2):174-99. doi: 10.1177/0049124194023002002. google scholar
3. AndreB, Hans-Jürgen, Katrin Golsch, and Alexander W. Schmidt. 2013. "How to Do Your Own Panel Analysis." Pp. 287-92 in Applied Panel Data Analysis for Economic and Social Surveys, edited by H.-J. AndreB, K. Golsch, and A. W. Schmidt. Heidelberg: Springer. Economist Impact "Global Food Security Index (GFSI)." Retrieved February 20, 2022 (http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/). google scholar
4. Arndt, Channing, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson. (2020). "Covid-19 Lockdowns, Income Distribution, and Food Security: An Analysis for South Africa." Global Food Security 26:100410. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100410. google scholar
5. Assoumou-Ella, Giscard, and Ismaelline Eba-Nguema. (2019). "Trade Openness and Food Security in Africa: A Comparative Study of CEMAC and WAEMU Countries." Pp. 119-35 in The External Sector of Africa's Economy, Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development, edited by D. Seck. Cham: Springer International Publishing. google scholar
6. Baldos, Uris Lantz C., and Thomas W. Hertel. (2014). "Global Food Security in 2050: The Role of Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change." Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 58(4):554-70. doi: 10.1111/1467-8489.12048. google scholar
7. Barrett, Christopher B. 2020. "Actions Now Can Curb Food Systems Fallout from COVID-19." Nature Food 1(6):319-20. doi: 10.1038/ s43016-020-0085-y. google scholar
8. Biniaz, A., and H. Mohamadi. (2018). "The Effect of Agriculture Trade Openness on Food Security in Iran (ARDL Approach)." Agricultural Economics Research 10(38):81-104. google scholar

9. Dithmer, Jan, and Awudu Abdulai. (2017). "Does Trade Openness Contribute to Food Security? A Dynamic Panel Analysis." Food Policy 69:218-30. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.04.008. google scholar
10. Djeufack Dongmo, A. and Avom, D. (2024). "Urbanization, civil conflict, and the severity of food insecurity in africa." Politics & Policy, 52(1), 140-168. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12572 google scholar
11. Erokhin, Vasilii. (2017). "Self-Sufficiency Versus Security: How Trade Protectionism Challenges the Sustainability of the Food Supply in Russia." Sustainability 9(11):1939. doi: 10.3390/su9111939. google scholar
12. Fan Lihong, Nazhat Nury Aspy, Dilruba Yesmin Smrity, Md. Faris Dewan, Md. Golam Kibria, Mohammad Haseeb, Mustafa Kamal and Md Saidur Rahman. (2024). "Moving towards food security in South Asian region: Assessing the role of agricultural trade openness, production, and employment." Heliyon, 10(13), e33522, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33522. google scholar
13. Fathelrahman, Eihab, Stephen Davies, and Safdar Muhammad. (2021). "Food Trade Openness and Enhancement of Food Security-Partial Equilibrium Model Simulations for Selected Countries." Sustainability 13(8):4107. doi: 10.3390/su13084107. google scholar
14. Frees, Edward W. (2004). Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
15. Fusco, Giulio, Benedetta Coluccia, and Federica De Leo. (2020). "Effect of Trade Openness on Food Security in the EU: A Dynamic Panel Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17(12):4311. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17124311. google scholar
16. Gnedeka, Kodjo Theodore, and Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra. (2023). "New Evidence in the Relationship between Trade Openness and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa." Retrieved April 29, 2023 (https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-2429858/v1). google scholar
17. Hansen, Bruce E., and Kenneth D. West. (2002). "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20(4):460-69. doi: 10.1198/073500102288618603. google scholar
18. Hansen, Lars Peter. (2010). "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation." Pp. 105-18 in Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis, edited by S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan UK. google scholar
19. Henson, Spencer, and Steven Jaffee. 2004. Standards and Agro-Food Exports from Developing Countries: Rebalancing the Debate. The World Bank. google scholar
20. Huda, Fahmi Alamil. (2024). "The impact of trade openness, tariff, and globalization on food security in the ASEAN region." KnE Social Sciences. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v9i14.16107. google scholar
21. Jagtap Sandeep, Hana Trollman, Frank Trollman, Guillermo Garcia-Garcia, Wayne Martindale. (2024). "Surviving the storm: Navigating the quadruple whammy impact on Europe’s food supply chain." International Journal of Food Science & Technology, 59(6), 3652-3666. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijfs.17106;. google scholar
22. Jia, Junwen, Weiqiang Yang, Fang Wu, Xuefeng Cui. (2024). "Elevated diversity of the supply chain boosts global food system resilience." Environmental Research Letters, 19(2), 024049. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2434. google scholar
23. Jones, Andrew D., Francis Ngure, Gretel H. Pelto, and Sera L. Young. (2013). "What Are We Assessing When We Measure Food Security? A Compendium and Review of Current Metrics." Advances in Nutrition 4(5):481-505. doi: 10.3945/an.113.004119. google scholar
24. Khodabakhshi, Akbar, and Reza Golestaninasab. (2021). "Impact of the Trade Openness on Food Security in Oil-Based Economies (OPEC Countries)." Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 52(3):541-52. doi: 10.22059/ ijaedr.2021.291891.668842. google scholar
25. Krivko, Mikhail, Katarzyna Czech, Michat Wielechowski, Pavel Kotyza, Lubos Smutka. (2024). "Rebalancing agri-food trade flows due to Russian import ban: The case of direct neighbors." Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs. 2024.1420945 google scholar
26. Lam, Hon-Ming, Justin Remais, Ming-Chiu Fung, Liqing Xu, and Samuel Sai-Ming Sun. (2013). "Food Supply and Food Safety Issues in China." The Lancet 381(9882):2044-53. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60776-X. google scholar
27. Li Junjie, Qin Xiao, Haixia Wu, Jianping Li. (2024). " Unpacking the global rice trade network: Centrality, structural holes, and the nexus of food insecurity. Foods, 13(4), 604. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13040604. google scholar
28. Marson, Marta, Donatella Saccone, and Elena Vallino. (2022). "Total Trade, Cereals Trade and Undernourishment: New Empirical Evidence for Developing Countries." Review of World Economics 159(2):299-332. doi: 10.1007/s10290-022-00468-z. google scholar
29. Muchtar, Masruri, Hafid Asy’ari, Ahmad Rodoni, Euis Amalia, Muhamad Nadratuzzaman Hosen. (2024). "Does a free trade agreement’s impact on the export of halal food to OIC countries matter? Evidence from Indonesia." Etikonomi, 23(1), 147-166. https://doi.org/ 10.15408/etk.v23i1.32951. google scholar
30. Nguyen, T. T., Timilsina, R. R., Sonobe, T., & Rahut, D. B. (2023). Interstate war and food security: implications from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1080696. google scholar
31. Nguyen, Trung T., Raja R. Timilsina, Tetsushi Sonobe, and Dil B. Rahut. (2023). "Interstate War and Food Security: Implications from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine." Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 7. google scholar
32. Obi, Chinedu, Fabio Bartolini, and Marijke D'Haese. (2020). "International Migration, Remittance and Food Security during Food Crises: The Case Study of Nigeria." Food Security 12(1):207-20. doi: 10.1007/s12571-019-00990-3. google scholar
33. Ogunlesi, Ayodeji, Koye Bokana, Chidozie Okoye, and Jens-Peter Loy. (2018). "Agricultural Productivity and Food Supply Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: LSDV and SYS-GMM Approach." Retrieved April 26, 2022 (https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90204/). google scholar
34. Omotesho, Kemi F., Azeez Muhammad-Lawal, and Damilare E. Ismaila. (2014). "Assessment of Hired Labor Use and Food Security among Rural Farming Households in Kwara State, Nigeria." Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Belgrade 59(3):353-61. google scholar
35. Oriekhoe, Osato Itohan, Olawale Adisa, Bamidele Segun Ilugbusi. (2024). "Climate change and food supply chain economics: A compre-hensive analysis of impacts, adaptations, and sustainability." International Journal of Applied Research in Social Sciences, 6(3), 267-278. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijarss.v6i3.885. google scholar
36. Rezende Machado de Sousa, Luna, Arlette Saint-Ville, Luisa Samayoa-Figueroa, and Hugo Melgar-Quinonez. (2019). "Changes in Food Security in Latin America from 2014 to 2017." Food Security 11(3):503-13. doi: 10.1007/s12571-019-00931-0. google scholar
37. Sandström, Vilma, Ellen Huan-Niemi, Jyrki Niemi, Matti Kummu. (2024). "Dependency on imported agricultural inputs—Global trade patterns and recent trends." Environmental Research: Food Systems, 1(1), 015002. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601x/ad325e. google scholar
38. Sartori, Martina, and Stefano Schiavo. (2015). "Connected We Stand: A Network Perspective on Trade and Global Food Security." Food Policy 57:114-27. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.10.004. google scholar
39. Schnitter, Rebekka, and Peter Berry. (2019). "The Climate Change, Food Security and Human Health Nexus in Canada: A Framework to Protect Population Health." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16(14):2531. doi: 10.3390/ ijerph16142531. google scholar
40. Smith, Lisa C., and Lawrence Haddad. (2015). "Reducing Child Undernutrition: Past Drivers and Priorities for the Post-MDG Era." World Development 68:180-204. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.014. google scholar
41. Sousa, Luna Rezende Machado de, Ana Maria Segall-Correa, Arlette Saint Ville, and Hugo Melgar-Quinonez. (2019). "Food Security Status in Times of Financial and Political Crisis in Brazil." Cadernos de Saûde PûbLica 35:e00084118. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00084118. google scholar
42. Subramaniam, Yogeeswari, Nanthakumar Loganathan, and Tajul A. Masron. (2023). "Food Security and Political Instability-Foreign Divestment Analysis." Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies 16(1):55-63. doi: 10.1108/jcefts-04-2022-0025. google scholar
43. Sun, Dingqiang, Jikun Huang, and Jun Yang. (2014). "Do China's Food Safety Standards Affect Agricultural Trade? The Case of Dairy Products." China Agricultural Economic Review 6(1):21-37. doi: 10.1108/CAER-06-2012-0062. google scholar
44. Sun, Zhilu, and Defeng Zhang. (2021). "Impact of Trade Openness on Food Security: Evidence from Panel Data for Central Asian Countries." Foods 10(12):3012. doi: 10.3390/foods10123012. google scholar
45. Susilastuti, Darwati. (2018). "Poverty Reduction Models: Indonesian Agricultural Economic Approach." European Research Studies XX(3A):164-76. google scholar
46. Vaisey, Stephen, and Andrew Miles. (2017). "What You Can-and Can't-Do with Three-Wave Panel Data." Sociological Methods & Research 46(1):44-67. doi: 10.1177/0049124114547769. google scholar
47. Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. (2004). "To Spray or Not to Spray: Pesticides, Banana Exports, and Food Safety." Food Policy 29(2):131-46. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2004.02.003. google scholar