Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 218 - 237, 14.02.2025

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1584231

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de uygulanan para politikasının gıda enflasyonu üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre, sıkılaştırıcı para politikası asimetrik pozitif tepkiler meydana getirmekte ve gıda enflasy6 onu üzerinde istikrar bozucu etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu durum, para politikasının parasal aktarım mekanizmasının maliyet kanalının etkinliğinin, talep kanalına göre daha yüksek olması ile açıklanabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, enerji ve dünya gıda fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişimlerin, ulusal gıda fiyatlarını arttırdığı gözlenmektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, farklı kontrol değişkeni kullanılmasına, modelin farklı veri setleri ile tahminine ve dönem içinde gerçekleşen yapısal kırılmalara karşı da oldukça tutarlıdır.

JEL Classification : E30 , E31 , E52

Anahtar Kelimeler

Para politikası , maliyet kanalı , talep kanalı , gıda enflasyonu , kantil regresyon

Does a Contractionary Monetary Policy in Turkey Stabilise Food Inflation?

Öz

This study analyzes the impact of the monetary policy in Turkey on domestic food inflation. We statistically show that contractionary monetary policies produce positive asymmetric impacts and destabilise food inflation. This result shows that the cost channel of the monetary transmission mechanism prevails over the demand channel of the monetary transmission mechanism. We also provide empirical evidence that an increase in energy and world food prices also drives domestic food inflation. These results are robust with respect to employing different control variables, the estimation of the model with different data sets, and the structural breaks that occurred during the study period.

JEL Classification : E30 , E31 , E52

Anahtar Kelimeler

Monetary policy , cost channel , demand channel , food inflation , quantile regressi

Kaynakça

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