Socioeconomic Reflections of Inflation in Türkiye: An Analysis from the Perspective of the Games of Chance Tax

Öz

This study empirically examines the long-term relationship between inflation and gambling tax revenues in the Turkish economy using quarterly data from the 2005–2024 period. The primary aim of this study is to reveal how inflationary pressures influence individuals’ economic decision-making processes and to analyse the fiscal dimen sion of this behavioural tendency as reflected in public finance. The literature frequently notes that during times of economic crisis and uncertainty, individuals tend to move away from traditional income and savings mechanisms and instead seek short-term and high-risk earnings alternatives. Within this context, it is emphasised that low income groups are more inclined to participate in games of chance and that such behaviour is shaped not only by individual psychological factors but also by broader macroeconomic conditions. In this study, the noted behavioural tendency is evaluated through gambling tax revenues; accordingly, a co-integration test extended by the Fourier approach—capable of capturing the effects of structural breaks—has been employed. The results of the analysis reveal a long-term, positive, and statistically significant co-integration relationship between inflation and gambling tax revenues. Furthermore, the statistical significance of the Fourier-based components indicates that the economic fluctuations experienced during the analysis period played a decisive role in shaping this relationship. Additionally, f indings obtained from the error correction model demonstrate that short-term deviations tend to stabilise over time and that the system moves towards its long-term equilibrium level. In this context, the findings show that inflation is not merely a macroeconomic indicator, but rather a multidimensional social dynamic that transforms individual economic behaviour patterns and exerts an indirect yet measurable influence on public finance. JEL Classification : C22 , E31 , H24

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inflation
• games of chance
• games of chance tax
• Tax revenues
• Fractional frequency Fourier ADL

Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Sosyoekonomik Yansımaları: Şans Oyunları Vergisi Perspektifinden Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde 2005–2024 dönemine ait çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak, enflasyon ile şans oyunları vergi gelirleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, enflasyonist baskıların bireylerin ekonomik karar alma süreçlerini nasıl etkilediğini ortaya koymak ve bu davranışsal yönelimin kamu maliyesine yansıyan vergisel boyutunu analiz etmektir. Literatürde, özellikle ekonomik kriz ve belirsizlik dönemlerinde bireylerin geleneksel gelir ve tasarruf yollarının dışına çıkarak kısa vadeli ve yüksek risk içeren kazanç arayışlarına yöneldiği sıklıkla ifade edilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, düşük gelirli grupların şans oyunlarına daha fazla eğilim gösterdiği, bu davranışın ise yalnızca bireylerin psikolojileriyle değil, aynı zamanda makroekonomik koşullarla şekillendiği vurgulanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, söz konusu eğilim şans oyunları vergisi üzerinden değerlendirilmiş; bu bağlamda, yapısal kırılmaların etkisini dikkate alabilen Fourier yaklaşımıyla genişletilmiş eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, enflasyon ile şans oyunları vergi gelirleri arasında uzun dönemli, pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca Fourier dönüşümüne dayalı bileşenlerin anlamlılığı, analiz dönemi boyunca yaşanan ekonomik dalgalanmaların bu ilişki üzerinde belirleyici rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Ek olarak, hata düzeltme modelinden elde edilen bulgular, kısa dönemli sapmaların zaman içinde dengelendiğini ve sistemin uzun dönemli denge düzeyine yöneldiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu kapsamda elde edilen bulgular, enflasyonun bir makroekonomik gösterge olmanın ötesinde, bireylerin ekonomik davranış kalıplarını dönüştüren ve dolaylı yoldan kamu maliyesi üzerinde etkili olan çok boyutlu bir toplumsal dinamik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. JEL Classification : C22 , E31 , H24

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Şans oyunları
• Şans oyunları vergisi
• Vergi gelirleri
• Kesirli frekanslı Fourier ADL

Kaynakça

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