İhracat ve İstihdam İlişkisi Üzerine Panel Veri Modeli Analizi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği

Öz

İhracatın istihdam üzerindeki etkisi uzun yıllardır araştırmacıların ilgi odağındadır, fakat bu alandaki literatür ortak bir paydada buluşamamış görünmektedir ve ihracat ile istihdam arasındaki ilişki hala net değildir. Bu makale, 28 OECD ülkesinin ihracatının onların istihdamları üzerindeki etkisini, birimler arasındaki farklı özelliklerin etkisini ortaya koyan, yatay kesit veri ve zaman serisi verileri birlikte kullanarak serbestlik derecesinin artmasına izin veren dolayısıyla daha etkili tahmin ediciler sunan panel veri tahmin yöntemi kullanarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç için, makale 2001–2019 dönemini kapsayan verileri ve istihdam, ihracat, ekonomik büyüme, birim işçilik maliyetleri, işsizlik ödemesi, ticari açıklık ve finansal açıklık oranları gibi değişkenleri kullanır. Bulgulara göre 28 OECD ülkesinin ihracat büyümesi, istihdam büyümesini negatif yönde etkilemekte anlamlıdır. Ekonomik büyüme, bir önceki dönemin istihdam seviyesi, ticari açıklık ve ihracat istihdam üzerinde etkiler ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme, önceki dönem istihdam seviyesi ve ticari açıklık, cari dönemdeki istihdamı pozitif etkilerken; ihracat, istihdam üzerinde negatif yönde etkili olmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen tahminler, ihracat büyümesinin istihdam büyümesine etkisinin, ihracatın istihdamı artırdığını belirten geleneksel dış ticaret teorilerinin aksine, başta ülkelerin üretim yapıları olmak üzere siyasi ve ekonomik faktörlere göre değişeceğini ima etmektedir. Hızla değişen pazar talebine uyum sağlamak ve uyumu teşvik edebilecek rekabetçi bir ortam yaratmak çok önemlidir. Politika yapıcılar ve sosyal ortaklar, eğitim ve öğretim sistemlerini endüstriye bağlama ve işgücü arzını taleple eşleştirme konusunda aktif işbirliği yoluyla oynayacakları kilit bir role sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat
• İstihdam
• Dış Ticaret Teorileri
• İş gücü
• Panel Veri Modeli

Panel Data Model Analysis on the Relationship Between Export and Employment: The Case of OECD Countries

Öz

For many years, researchers have focused more on the effects of exports on employment; however, the literature in this area has not found common ground, and the relationship between exports and employment is still not clear. This study investigates the impact of export on the employment of 28 OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries using panel data estimation techniques that reveal the effect of different properties between units, allows the degree of freedom to increase, and, therefore, offers more effective estimators using cross-section data together. Thus, the study uses data spanning from 2001 to 2019 and variables such as employment, exports, economic growth, per unit labor costs, trade openness, financial openness, and unemployment payment rates. The findings reveal that the exports of 28 OECD countries are significant and have a negative significant effect on their employment. The economic growth, employment level of the previous period, trade openness, and exports have an impact on employment. While economic growth, trade openness, and previous employment levels have a positive effect on employment in the current period, exports have a negative effect on employment. The results imply that the export may affect to employment level. depending on political and economic factors, particularly the production structures of countries, contrary to traditional foreign trade theories that state that exports increase employment. It is critical to adapt to the rapidly changing market demand and create a competitive environment that can encourage adaptation. Policymakers and social partners have a key role to play through active cooperation in connecting education and training systems to industry and matching labor supply to demand.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export
• employment
• foreign trade theories
• labor force
• panel data model

Kaynakça

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