Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018)

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 103 - 120, 27.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1020460

Öz

Ekonomi ile ilgili yayınlarda net hatalar ve noksanlar konusunda yani net hata ve eksikliklerin kökenleri ve bunların ödemeler dengesi üzerindeki etkileri hakkında çok fazla analiz yapılmamıştır. Ayrıca, net hata ve noksanların ne derece kabul edilebilir olduğunu gösteren açıkça tanımlanmış bir cevap da bulunmamaktadır. Her ülkenin kendine has özellikleri vardır ve ödemeler dengesi uyumsuzluklarının varlık nedenlerini genellemek bu açıdan oldukça zordur. Bu çalışma, seçilen ülkelerin (Singapur, Malezya, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Uruguay, Filipinler) 1980-2018 yıllarında ödemeler dengesi hesaplarındaki ‘net hata ve noksan’ hesabının makroekonomik değişkenlerle (GSYİH, ithalat ve ihracat rakamları olarak kabul edilen ticaret hacmi) olan ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmaya ait veriler, Dünya Bankası ve IMF uluslararası finans istatistiklerinden alınmıştır ve seçilen ülkelerin yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, verilerin durağanlaştırılması sonrası, panel veri analizi tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre ticaret hacmi net hata noksan üzerine negatif bir etki yaparken, GSYİH net hata noksanı pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Tutarsızlıkların nedenleri genellikle bilinmemekle birlikte, bazı durumlarda istatistiklerin gözden geçirilmesini gerektiren açıklamalar daha sonra ortaya çıkmaktadır. Zamanlama boşluğu, yetersiz kapsam veya metodolojik sorunlar dengesizliklere neden olabilir. Net hata ve noksan hesabının varlığının nedeni yani kaynağının bulunmasıyla, ödemeler dengesi istatistiklerinin kalitesi daha da iyileştirilebilir. Veri kaynakları iyi seçilmeli ve sorunlar yaşanmaması adına bu konuda yasalar ve cezai politikalar net bir şekilde belirtilmelidir.

Kaynakça

  • Adekunle, K.A. (2012). Errors and omissions and unrecorded capital flows and flight in Nigeria, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(3), 307-314. google scholar
  • Alagöz, M. (2014). Ekonomik büyüme ve net hata-noksan ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 13 (4), 881-888. google scholar
  • Barseghyan, M., & Davtyan, A. (2018). Errors and omissions in Armenia’s balance of payments: possible reasons and solutions. IFC: Central Bank of Statistics. google scholar
  • Bieganska, J. (2016). Saldo Bledow I Opuszczen W Bilansie Platniczym Polski. Wstçp Do Analizy, 3 (11), 186-196. google scholar
  • Blomberg, G., Forss, L., & Karlsson, I. (2003). Errors and omissions in the balance of payments statistics- a problem?, (Eds: Staffan Viotti & Kerstin Mitlid , 41-50. http://www.riksbank.se/Upload/Dokument_riksbank/ Kat_publicerat/PoV_sve/ sv/2003_2.pdf google scholar
  • Cencini A. (2005). World monetary discrepancies: A new macroeconomic analysis. Universita della svizzera Italiana, Working Paper. https://www. _World_Monetary_Discrepancies_A_New_Macroeconomic_Analysis/ link/03a39bf51e636a4298347c9b/download. google scholar
  • Committeri, M. (2000). Effects of volatile asset prices on balance of payments and international ınvestment position data. IMF Working Paper, 191, 3-39. google scholar
  • Ding, S.L., & Tang, T.C. (2017). Net errors and omissions’ of balance of payments and ıts sustainability: a survey of literature. Economics Bulletin, 37(4), 2753-2766. google scholar
  • Duffy, M., & Renton, A. (1971). An analysis of the U.K. balancing item. International Economic Review, 12(3), 448-464. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525357 google scholar
  • Duman, K. (2004). Finansal krizlere karşı politika tercihleri. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (8), 38-61. google scholar
  • Fausten, D. K., & Brooks, R. D. (1996). The balancing item in Australia’s balance of payments accounts: an impressionistic view. Applied Economics, 28(10), 1303-1311. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368496327859 google scholar
  • Fausten, D. K., & Pickett, B. (2004). ‘Errors & omissions’ in the reporting of Australia’s cross-border transactions. Australian Economic Paper, 43(1), 101-115. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2004.00219.x google scholar
  • Greene, W.H. (2002). Econometric analysis (Fifth Edition). New York: Prentice Hall. google scholar
  • Gujarati, D.N., & Porter, D.C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri (Basic Econometrics) (Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen, Çev.). İstanbul, Türkiye: Literatür Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • IMF Annual Report, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/archive/pdf/ar1987.pdf. (22.12.2021) google scholar
  • International Financial Statistics (2021). https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b (09.12.2021). google scholar
  • International Monetary Fund (1993).The Balance of Payments Manual, Washington: International Monetary Fund. google scholar
  • Jellema, T.R., Pastoris, F., & Aguilar, C.P. (2020). Using synthetic indicators to assess the quality of macroeconomic statistics via mirror data, European Central Bank Statistics Paper, No. 34, 1-42. http://dx.doi.org/10.2866/4452 google scholar
  • Kar, M. ve Kara, M.A. (2004).Gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik sermaye hareketleri ve krizler. Finans-Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 41(481), 1-22. google scholar
  • Keşap, D. & Sandalcılar, A. R. (2021). Net hata ve noksan hesabı belirleyicilerinin analizi: Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 32, 149-168. google scholar
  • Kilibarda, B. (2013). Net errors and omissions. Podgorica: Central Bank of Montenegro. Working Paper No 23, 7-45. google scholar
  • Kristinsson, T.Ö. (2016). Net errors and omissions in balance of payments statistics, impacts, causes and effects. ( Master’s Thesis, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal). Retrieved from https://run.unl.pt/ bitstream/10362/19594/1/TEGI0370.pdf. google scholar
  • Lin, M.Y., & Wang, H.H. (2009). What causes the volatility of the balancing item?. Economics Bulletin, 29(4), 2738-2748. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No.0435. google scholar
  • Siranova M., Tiruneh M.W. & Fisera B. (2020). Creating the illicit capital flows network in Europe - Do the net errors and omissions follow an economic pattern?, International Review of Economics and Finance ,1-50. ,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.020. google scholar
  • Siranova, M., & Tiruneh, M. W. (2018). Exploding Net Errors and Omissions as a Capital Flight Phenomenon: The Case of Slovakia. Applied Economics, 50(16), 1866-1884. google scholar
  • Siranova, M., Tiruneh, M. W., & Fisera, B. (2021). Creating the Illicit Capital Flows Network in Europe - Do the Net Errors and Omissions Follow an Economic Pattern?. International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 955-973. google scholar
  • Tang, T. C. (2006). Japan’s balancing item: do timing errors matters?. Applied Economics Letters, 13(2), 81-87. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500378718 google scholar
  • Tang, T. C. (2017). New perspective on the ‘net error and ommision’ in balance of payment accounts: An empirical study in Australia. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 13(2), 27-44. https:// doi.org/10.21315/aamjaf2017.13.2.2 google scholar
  • Taştan, S. (2015). Sustainability of balancing item of balance of payment for OECD countries: evidence from fourier unit root tests. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 22(3), 93- 100. google scholar
  • TCMB (2002). Küreselleşmenin Türkiye ekonomisine etkileri, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/ connect/098cd40c-d8e3-4197, (10.12.2021). google scholar
  • Tombazos, C. G. (2003). New light on the ‘impressionistic view’ of the balancing item in Australia’s balance of payments accounts. Applied Economics, 35(12), 1369-1378. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684032000129354 google scholar
  • Ünsal, E.M. (2005). Uluslararası iktisat teori, politika ve açık ekonomi makro iktisadı. Ankara : İmaj Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Vuksic, G. (2009). Croatian balance of payments: Implications of net errors and omissions for economic policy. Institut Za Javne Financije- Newsletter, 41, 1-5. google scholar
  • Wang, J., & Zivot, E. (2000). A bayesian time series model of multiple structural changes in level. Trend and Variance. Journal of Business and Statistics, 18, 374-386. google scholar
  • World Development Indicators (2021). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.KAC.EOMS.CD, (01.10.2021). google scholar
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2012). İleri panel veri analizi stata uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık. google scholar

Net Errors and Omissions Account Overview: Analysis of Selected Countries (1980-2018)

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 103 - 120, 27.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1020460

Öz

Not many analyses have been conducted on net errors and omissions in publications on Economics which is relevant to the origins of net errors and omissions and their effects on the balance of payments. There is no clarified answer to indicate the degree to which errors and omissions are acceptable. Each country has its characteristics, and it is tough to generalize the reasons behind the balance of payment mismatches. This research intends to study the relationship between selected countries’ (India, Singapore, Malaysia, United States, Uruguay, Philippines) balance of payment accounts ‘net errors and Omissions’ account of macroeconomic variables (GDP, trade volume considered as import and export figures) in the years of 1980-2018. The data for this study were collected from the World Bank and IMF international financial statistics and the selected countries’ annual data. In the study, panel data analysis was preferred after stasis analysis of the data. According to the results obtained, while trade volüme harms net errors and omissions, the increases in GDP are being affected positively in that direction. The inconsistencies are often unknown, although in some cases, explanations that require a review of statistics emerge later. Timing gaps, insufficient coverage, or methodological issues can cause imbalances. By finding the reason for the existence of the net error and omissions account, that is, its source, the quality of the balance of payments statistics can be further improved. Data sources should be chosen well, and laws and penal policies should be clearly stated to avoid problems.

Kaynakça

  • Adekunle, K.A. (2012). Errors and omissions and unrecorded capital flows and flight in Nigeria, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(3), 307-314. google scholar
  • Alagöz, M. (2014). Ekonomik büyüme ve net hata-noksan ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 13 (4), 881-888. google scholar
  • Barseghyan, M., & Davtyan, A. (2018). Errors and omissions in Armenia’s balance of payments: possible reasons and solutions. IFC: Central Bank of Statistics. google scholar
  • Bieganska, J. (2016). Saldo Bledow I Opuszczen W Bilansie Platniczym Polski. Wstçp Do Analizy, 3 (11), 186-196. google scholar
  • Blomberg, G., Forss, L., & Karlsson, I. (2003). Errors and omissions in the balance of payments statistics- a problem?, (Eds: Staffan Viotti & Kerstin Mitlid , 41-50. http://www.riksbank.se/Upload/Dokument_riksbank/ Kat_publicerat/PoV_sve/ sv/2003_2.pdf google scholar
  • Cencini A. (2005). World monetary discrepancies: A new macroeconomic analysis. Universita della svizzera Italiana, Working Paper. https://www. _World_Monetary_Discrepancies_A_New_Macroeconomic_Analysis/ link/03a39bf51e636a4298347c9b/download. google scholar
  • Committeri, M. (2000). Effects of volatile asset prices on balance of payments and international ınvestment position data. IMF Working Paper, 191, 3-39. google scholar
  • Ding, S.L., & Tang, T.C. (2017). Net errors and omissions’ of balance of payments and ıts sustainability: a survey of literature. Economics Bulletin, 37(4), 2753-2766. google scholar
  • Duffy, M., & Renton, A. (1971). An analysis of the U.K. balancing item. International Economic Review, 12(3), 448-464. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525357 google scholar
  • Duman, K. (2004). Finansal krizlere karşı politika tercihleri. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (8), 38-61. google scholar
  • Fausten, D. K., & Brooks, R. D. (1996). The balancing item in Australia’s balance of payments accounts: an impressionistic view. Applied Economics, 28(10), 1303-1311. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368496327859 google scholar
  • Fausten, D. K., & Pickett, B. (2004). ‘Errors & omissions’ in the reporting of Australia’s cross-border transactions. Australian Economic Paper, 43(1), 101-115. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2004.00219.x google scholar
  • Greene, W.H. (2002). Econometric analysis (Fifth Edition). New York: Prentice Hall. google scholar
  • Gujarati, D.N., & Porter, D.C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri (Basic Econometrics) (Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen, Çev.). İstanbul, Türkiye: Literatür Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • IMF Annual Report, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/archive/pdf/ar1987.pdf. (22.12.2021) google scholar
  • International Financial Statistics (2021). https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b (09.12.2021). google scholar
  • International Monetary Fund (1993).The Balance of Payments Manual, Washington: International Monetary Fund. google scholar
  • Jellema, T.R., Pastoris, F., & Aguilar, C.P. (2020). Using synthetic indicators to assess the quality of macroeconomic statistics via mirror data, European Central Bank Statistics Paper, No. 34, 1-42. http://dx.doi.org/10.2866/4452 google scholar
  • Kar, M. ve Kara, M.A. (2004).Gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik sermaye hareketleri ve krizler. Finans-Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 41(481), 1-22. google scholar
  • Keşap, D. & Sandalcılar, A. R. (2021). Net hata ve noksan hesabı belirleyicilerinin analizi: Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 32, 149-168. google scholar
  • Kilibarda, B. (2013). Net errors and omissions. Podgorica: Central Bank of Montenegro. Working Paper No 23, 7-45. google scholar
  • Kristinsson, T.Ö. (2016). Net errors and omissions in balance of payments statistics, impacts, causes and effects. ( Master’s Thesis, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal). Retrieved from https://run.unl.pt/ bitstream/10362/19594/1/TEGI0370.pdf. google scholar
  • Lin, M.Y., & Wang, H.H. (2009). What causes the volatility of the balancing item?. Economics Bulletin, 29(4), 2738-2748. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No.0435. google scholar
  • Siranova M., Tiruneh M.W. & Fisera B. (2020). Creating the illicit capital flows network in Europe - Do the net errors and omissions follow an economic pattern?, International Review of Economics and Finance ,1-50. ,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.020. google scholar
  • Siranova, M., & Tiruneh, M. W. (2018). Exploding Net Errors and Omissions as a Capital Flight Phenomenon: The Case of Slovakia. Applied Economics, 50(16), 1866-1884. google scholar
  • Siranova, M., Tiruneh, M. W., & Fisera, B. (2021). Creating the Illicit Capital Flows Network in Europe - Do the Net Errors and Omissions Follow an Economic Pattern?. International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 955-973. google scholar
  • Tang, T. C. (2006). Japan’s balancing item: do timing errors matters?. Applied Economics Letters, 13(2), 81-87. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500378718 google scholar
  • Tang, T. C. (2017). New perspective on the ‘net error and ommision’ in balance of payment accounts: An empirical study in Australia. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 13(2), 27-44. https:// doi.org/10.21315/aamjaf2017.13.2.2 google scholar
  • Taştan, S. (2015). Sustainability of balancing item of balance of payment for OECD countries: evidence from fourier unit root tests. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 22(3), 93- 100. google scholar
  • TCMB (2002). Küreselleşmenin Türkiye ekonomisine etkileri, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/ connect/098cd40c-d8e3-4197, (10.12.2021). google scholar
  • Tombazos, C. G. (2003). New light on the ‘impressionistic view’ of the balancing item in Australia’s balance of payments accounts. Applied Economics, 35(12), 1369-1378. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684032000129354 google scholar
  • Ünsal, E.M. (2005). Uluslararası iktisat teori, politika ve açık ekonomi makro iktisadı. Ankara : İmaj Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Vuksic, G. (2009). Croatian balance of payments: Implications of net errors and omissions for economic policy. Institut Za Javne Financije- Newsletter, 41, 1-5. google scholar
  • Wang, J., & Zivot, E. (2000). A bayesian time series model of multiple structural changes in level. Trend and Variance. Journal of Business and Statistics, 18, 374-386. google scholar
  • World Development Indicators (2021). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.KAC.EOMS.CD, (01.10.2021). google scholar
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2012). İleri panel veri analizi stata uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık. google scholar
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Suna Şahin 0000-0002-8241-739X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Ocak 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 8 Kasım 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Şahin, S. (2022). Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018). Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 9(1), 103-120. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1020460
AMA Şahin S. Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018). JEPR. Ocak 2022;9(1):103-120. doi:10.26650/JEPR1020460
Chicago Şahin, Suna. “Net Hata Ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018)”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 9, sy. 1 (Ocak 2022): 103-20. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1020460.
EndNote Şahin S (01 Ocak 2022) Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018). Journal of Economic Policy Researches 9 1 103–120.
IEEE S. Şahin, “Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018)”, JEPR, c. 9, sy. 1, ss. 103–120, 2022, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1020460.
ISNAD Şahin, Suna. “Net Hata Ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018)”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 9/1 (Ocak 2022), 103-120. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1020460.
JAMA Şahin S. Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018). JEPR. 2022;9:103–120.
MLA Şahin, Suna. “Net Hata Ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018)”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, c. 9, sy. 1, 2022, ss. 103-20, doi:10.26650/JEPR1020460.
Vancouver Şahin S. Net Hata ve Noksan Hesabına Bakış: Seçilmiş Ülkelere Yönelik Analiz (1980-2018). JEPR. 2022;9(1):103-20.