Stock Market Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model: an Application to Istanbul, Turkiye

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 439 - 454, 29.07.2022

Tamerlan Mashadihasanli

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1056771

Öz

Because of its critical position in open economies and its extremely high
volatility, the stock market price index has been a popular subject of
market research. In modern financial markets, traders and practitioners
have had trouble predicting the stock market price index. In order to
solve this problem, some methods have been researched by researchers
and suitable methods have been found. To analyze and forecast monthly
stock market price index, a variety of statistical and econometric models
are extensively used. Thus, this study aims to investigate the application
of autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) for forecasting
monthly stock market price index in Istanbul for the period from 2009-
M01 to 2021-M03. As compared to all other tentative models, the
research showed that the ARIMA (3,1,5) model is the best fit model for
predicting the stock market price index. Forecasting is conducted by
using the developed model ARIMA (3,1,5) and the results indicated that
the forecasted values are very similar to the actual ones, reducing forecast
errors. In general, the stock market price index in Istanbul; showed a
downwards trend over the forecasted period. The results of the study
can set an example for researchers and practitioners working in the stock
market and can be a guide for economic decision units and investors in
the stock market. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA, forecasting, stock market price index, time series, Turkiye

Borsa İstanbul Fiyatlarının Arima Modeli İle Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Açık ekonomilerdeki kritik konumu ve son derece yüksek oynaklığı
nedeniyle borsa fiyat endeksi, piyasa araştırmalarının popüler bir konusu
olmuştur. Modern finans piyasalarında, tüccarlar ve uygulayıcılar borsa fiyat endeksini tahmin etmekte zorlanıyorlar. Bu soruna çözüm getirmek için araştırmacılar tarafından bazı yöntemler
araştırılmış ve uygun yöntemler bulunmuştur. Aylık borsa fiyat endeksini analiz etmek ve tahmin etmek için çeşitli
istatistiksel ve ekonometrik modeller yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma, 2009-M01 ile 2021-M03
arasındaki dönem için İstanbul'da aylık borsa fiyat endeksini tahmin etmek için otoregresif entegre hareketli ortalamalar
(ARIMA) uygulamasını araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma, diğer tüm geçici modellerle karşılaştırıldığında, ARIMA
(3,1,5) modelinin borsa fiyat endeksini tahmin etmek için en uygun model olduğunu göstermiştir. Tahmin, geliştirilen
ARIMA (3,1,5) modeli kullanılarak yapılmıştır ve sonuçlar, tahmin edilen değerlerin gerçek değerlere çok benzer olduğunu
ve tahmin hatalarını azalttığını göstermiştir. Genel olarak İstanbul'da borsa fiyat endeksi; tahmin edilen dönemde aşağı
yönlü bir eğilim göstermiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçları borsada çalışan araştırmacı ve uygulayıcılara örnek teşkil edebileceği
gibi borsada ekonomik karar birimlerine ve yatırımcılara yol gösterici olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA, tahminleme, borsa fiyat endeksi, zaman serisi, Türkiye

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