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Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 263 - 277, 13.08.2024

Zaim Reha Yaşar

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Öz

Türkiye is a country in which the COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected export performance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish export performance using different variables indicating the severity of the COVID-19 effects. The effect of COVID-19 on Türkiye’s export performance is empirically analysed with the ARDL approach by employing time series data covering the 2013:q1-2022:q1 period. The estimation results of the six models indicate that COVID-19 does not affect Turkish export performance in the long term, whereas its lagged variables have negative and significant effects in the short term. Foreign income has positive and statistically significant effects on export volumes in both the short and long term. The exchange rate significantly and negatively affects export flows in both the short and long term. The results of this paper are robust against different types of COVID-19 proxies. COVID-19 has negative effects on exports in the short run for Türkiye’s economy. The results indicate that policymakers should consider the lagged effects of variables in addition to the current version. The findings also show the recommendation that short- and long-run estimations should be conducted to determine the short- and long-run relations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Covid-19 export performance supply chain lockdown policies ARDL method

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, Ö. & Günay, A. (2020). The early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global and Turkish economy, Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences, 50, 520-526. https://doi.org/10.3906/sag-2004-6 google scholar
  • Arenas, C. G., Majure, S. & Montlucon, F. A. (2022). Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade in the Philippines, World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper 9911. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9911 google scholar
  • Arita, S., Grant, J., Sydow, S., & Beckman, J. (2022). Has global agricultural trade been resilient against coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment, Food Policy, 107, 102204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102204 google scholar
  • Barbero, J., Lucio, J. H. &Rodriguez-Crespo, E. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses, Plus One, 16(10), e0258356. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258356 google scholar
  • Ben-Xi, L. & Zhang, Y. Y. (2020). Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural exports, Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 19(12), 2937-2945. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2095-3119(20)63430-x google scholar
  • Brenton, P., J. M. Ferrantino, &M. Maliszewska (2022). Reshaping Global Value Chains Considering COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries, World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1821-9 google scholar
  • Brussevich, M., Papageorgiou, C., & Wibaux, P. (2022). Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic Lessons From French Firms. International Monetary Fund. Working Paper. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400204364.001. google scholar
  • Bulut, E. (2023). Long term impact of COVID-19 on Turkish imports: An ARDL bound test approach, Berna B. İzgi, Liza A. Sulejmani and Sobia Hassan In, Academic Studies in Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences, s. 89-100, Ankara: Gazi Publishing. google scholar
  • Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Yeşiltaş, S. & Yıldırım A. M. (2021). An Evaluation of the Turkish Economy During Covid-19, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Centre for Applied Turkey Studies. google scholar
  • Cabassou, F C. A., Gbetondji, M. A. N., Boris, O. K. L., Cocoa, J. A., & Laurent, G. A. (2021). COVID-19 and the performance of exporting companies in Benin. The European Journal of Development Research, 34, 828-842. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-021-00395-z google scholar
  • Das, B. S. & Sen, R. (2022). Trade Interdependencies in Covid-19-Related Essential Medical Goods, Role of Trade Facilitation and Cooperation for Asian Economies, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 666. https://doi.org/10.22617/wps220292-2 google scholar
  • Hayakawa, K. & Mukunoki, H. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on International Trade: Evidence from the First Quarter of 2020, IDE Discussion Paper No. 791. google scholar
  • Hayakawa, K. & Mukunoki, H. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 60, 101135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101135 google scholar
  • Hetami, A. A., Aransyah, F. M., Putri, P. A., Annisafazzahra, A., & Nurhidayah, A. (2022). Analysis of COVID-19 export-import and business obstacles between Indonesia and Japan, Budapest International Research and Critics Institute Journal, 5(1), 1713-1722. https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v5i1.3773 google scholar
  • Jindrichovska, I. & Ugurlu, E. (2021). EU and China trends in trade in challenging times. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(1), 71. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/jrfm14020071 google scholar
  • Köse, N. & Aslan, Ç. (2020). The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey’s foreign trade: New evidence from the SVAR model, Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2020.1808798 google scholar
  • Minondo, A. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain, Applied Economic Analysis, 29(85), pp. 58-76. https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-11-2020-0156 google scholar
  • Nakamura, H. & Managi, S. (2020). Airport risk of importation and exportation of theCOVID-19 pandemic. Transport Policy, 96, 40-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.06.018 google scholar
  • OECD (2020). COVID-19 and International Trade: Issues and Actions, Tackling Coronavirus Contributing to a Global Effort. Policy Briefs. https://doi.org/10.1787/494da2fa-en google scholar
  • OECD (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the Directions and Structure of International Trade, OECD Trade Policy Paper No. 252. https://doi.org/10.1787/0b8eaafe-en google scholar
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level Rrelationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (1), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 google scholar
  • Pianta, M. (2021). Impact of the Pandemic on Industries, a Conceptual Map and Key Processes, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation, Working Paper 17/2021. google scholar
  • Socrates, K. M. & Lassiter, A. A. (2020). The Effect of Lockdown Policies on International Trade: Evidence From Kenya, Global Working Paper 148, Brookings Institution google scholar
  • TÜİK (2014). İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-2013, Ankara. google scholar
  • Türkmen, Ö. N. & Turgut, R. (2022). Covid-19 effect in export: Analysis of Turkey’s export performance to top 5 countries in export. Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, 21(84), 1826-1840. https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1015298 google scholar
  • Ugurlu, E. (2020). COVID-19 Salgını Ardından Türkiye İhracat Sektörlerinde Çin’e Karşı Hangi Sektörlerde Rekabet Avantajı Sağlayabilir? (Which Sectors Can Turkey Provide a Competitive Advantage Against China in Export Sectors After the Covid-19?) (April 16, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3973513. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3973513 google scholar
  • Ugurlu, E. & Jindrichovska, I. (2022). Effect of COVID-19 on international trade among Visegrad Countries, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15, 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020041 google scholar
  • UNCTAD (2022). Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade and the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Trade, United Nations, Geneva. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789210056502 google scholar
  • Veeramani, S. & Anam (2021). COVID-19 impact on exports of services: opportunities, challenges and suggestions for India. FIIB Business Review, 10(4), 315-326. https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520984676 google scholar
  • Wei, P., Jin, C. & Xu, C. (2021). The Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the imports and exports in China, Japan, and South Korea, Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 682693. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.682693 google scholar
  • Zhang, W. W., Dawei, W. D., Majeed, M. T., & Sohael S. (2022). Covid-19 and international trade: Insights and policy challenges in China and USA. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 35(1), 1991-2002, https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2021.1930091 google scholar
  • WTO (2021). The Role of Trade in Developing Countries’ Road to Recovery, Joint Policy Note. google scholar

Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansına Etkisi: ARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 263 - 277, 13.08.2024

Zaim Reha Yaşar

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Öz

Covid-19 salgınının dış ticareti derinden etkilediği ülkelerden biri Türkiye’dir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 salgınının Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini, farklı Covid-19 değişkenleri ile analiz etmektir. Covid-19 salgınının ihracat üzerindeki etkisi ampirik olarak ARDL yöntemi ile analiz edilmiş olup analiz dönemi 2013:q1-2022:q2 aralığını kapsamaktadır. Altı modelin de tahmin sonuçları, Covid-19 salgınının uzun vadede Türkiye’nin ihracatını etkilemediğini fakat gecikmeli değerlerin kısa vadede ihracatı negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilediğini göstermektedir. Dış dünya gelirinin ise kısa ve uzun dönemde ihracat üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, döviz kuru hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ihracatı önemli derecede olumsuz etkilemektedir. Farklı Covid-19 değişkenleri ile yapılan analizin sonuçları birbirini destekler niteliktedir. Bununla birlikte Covid-19, ihracat üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini kısa dönemde göstermektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, sadece cari göstergeleri değil değişkenlerin gecikmeleri etkilerini de göz önünde bulundurmalıdır. Sonuçlar aynı zamanda kısa ve uzun vadeli ilişkileri görmek için kısa ve uzun dönemli tahminlerin de yapılması gerektiğini desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Covid-19 ihracat performansı arz zinciri karantina önlemleri ARDL yöntemi

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, Ö. & Günay, A. (2020). The early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global and Turkish economy, Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences, 50, 520-526. https://doi.org/10.3906/sag-2004-6 google scholar
  • Arenas, C. G., Majure, S. & Montlucon, F. A. (2022). Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade in the Philippines, World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper 9911. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9911 google scholar
  • Arita, S., Grant, J., Sydow, S., & Beckman, J. (2022). Has global agricultural trade been resilient against coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment, Food Policy, 107, 102204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102204 google scholar
  • Barbero, J., Lucio, J. H. &Rodriguez-Crespo, E. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses, Plus One, 16(10), e0258356. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258356 google scholar
  • Ben-Xi, L. & Zhang, Y. Y. (2020). Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural exports, Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 19(12), 2937-2945. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2095-3119(20)63430-x google scholar
  • Brenton, P., J. M. Ferrantino, &M. Maliszewska (2022). Reshaping Global Value Chains Considering COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries, World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1821-9 google scholar
  • Brussevich, M., Papageorgiou, C., & Wibaux, P. (2022). Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic Lessons From French Firms. International Monetary Fund. Working Paper. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400204364.001. google scholar
  • Bulut, E. (2023). Long term impact of COVID-19 on Turkish imports: An ARDL bound test approach, Berna B. İzgi, Liza A. Sulejmani and Sobia Hassan In, Academic Studies in Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences, s. 89-100, Ankara: Gazi Publishing. google scholar
  • Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Yeşiltaş, S. & Yıldırım A. M. (2021). An Evaluation of the Turkish Economy During Covid-19, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Centre for Applied Turkey Studies. google scholar
  • Cabassou, F C. A., Gbetondji, M. A. N., Boris, O. K. L., Cocoa, J. A., & Laurent, G. A. (2021). COVID-19 and the performance of exporting companies in Benin. The European Journal of Development Research, 34, 828-842. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-021-00395-z google scholar
  • Das, B. S. & Sen, R. (2022). Trade Interdependencies in Covid-19-Related Essential Medical Goods, Role of Trade Facilitation and Cooperation for Asian Economies, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 666. https://doi.org/10.22617/wps220292-2 google scholar
  • Hayakawa, K. & Mukunoki, H. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on International Trade: Evidence from the First Quarter of 2020, IDE Discussion Paper No. 791. google scholar
  • Hayakawa, K. & Mukunoki, H. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 60, 101135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101135 google scholar
  • Hetami, A. A., Aransyah, F. M., Putri, P. A., Annisafazzahra, A., & Nurhidayah, A. (2022). Analysis of COVID-19 export-import and business obstacles between Indonesia and Japan, Budapest International Research and Critics Institute Journal, 5(1), 1713-1722. https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v5i1.3773 google scholar
  • Jindrichovska, I. & Ugurlu, E. (2021). EU and China trends in trade in challenging times. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(1), 71. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/jrfm14020071 google scholar
  • Köse, N. & Aslan, Ç. (2020). The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey’s foreign trade: New evidence from the SVAR model, Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2020.1808798 google scholar
  • Minondo, A. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain, Applied Economic Analysis, 29(85), pp. 58-76. https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-11-2020-0156 google scholar
  • Nakamura, H. & Managi, S. (2020). Airport risk of importation and exportation of theCOVID-19 pandemic. Transport Policy, 96, 40-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.06.018 google scholar
  • OECD (2020). COVID-19 and International Trade: Issues and Actions, Tackling Coronavirus Contributing to a Global Effort. Policy Briefs. https://doi.org/10.1787/494da2fa-en google scholar
  • OECD (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the Directions and Structure of International Trade, OECD Trade Policy Paper No. 252. https://doi.org/10.1787/0b8eaafe-en google scholar
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level Rrelationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (1), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 google scholar
  • Pianta, M. (2021). Impact of the Pandemic on Industries, a Conceptual Map and Key Processes, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation, Working Paper 17/2021. google scholar
  • Socrates, K. M. & Lassiter, A. A. (2020). The Effect of Lockdown Policies on International Trade: Evidence From Kenya, Global Working Paper 148, Brookings Institution google scholar
  • TÜİK (2014). İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-2013, Ankara. google scholar
  • Türkmen, Ö. N. & Turgut, R. (2022). Covid-19 effect in export: Analysis of Turkey’s export performance to top 5 countries in export. Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, 21(84), 1826-1840. https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1015298 google scholar
  • Ugurlu, E. (2020). COVID-19 Salgını Ardından Türkiye İhracat Sektörlerinde Çin’e Karşı Hangi Sektörlerde Rekabet Avantajı Sağlayabilir? (Which Sectors Can Turkey Provide a Competitive Advantage Against China in Export Sectors After the Covid-19?) (April 16, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3973513. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3973513 google scholar
  • Ugurlu, E. & Jindrichovska, I. (2022). Effect of COVID-19 on international trade among Visegrad Countries, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15, 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020041 google scholar
  • UNCTAD (2022). Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade and the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Trade, United Nations, Geneva. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789210056502 google scholar
  • Veeramani, S. & Anam (2021). COVID-19 impact on exports of services: opportunities, challenges and suggestions for India. FIIB Business Review, 10(4), 315-326. https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520984676 google scholar
  • Wei, P., Jin, C. & Xu, C. (2021). The Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the imports and exports in China, Japan, and South Korea, Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 682693. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.682693 google scholar
  • Zhang, W. W., Dawei, W. D., Majeed, M. T., & Sohael S. (2022). Covid-19 and international trade: Insights and policy challenges in China and USA. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 35(1), 1991-2002, https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2021.1930091 google scholar
  • WTO (2021). The Role of Trade in Developing Countries’ Road to Recovery, Joint Policy Note. google scholar
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm RESEARCH ARTICLE
Yazarlar

Zaim Reha Yaşar 0000-0001-7466-6137

Yayımlanma Tarihi 13 Ağustos 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 2 Mayıs 2024
Kabul Tarihi 8 Temmuz 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Yaşar, Z. R. (2024). Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032
AMA Yaşar ZR. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. JEPR. Ağustos 2024;11(2):263-277. doi:10.26650/JEPR1477032
Chicago Yaşar, Zaim Reha. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 11, sy. 2 (Ağustos 2024): 263-77. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032.
EndNote Yaşar ZR (01 Ağustos 2024) Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 11 2 263–277.
IEEE Z. R. Yaşar, “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model”, JEPR, c. 11, sy. 2, ss. 263–277, 2024, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1477032.
ISNAD Yaşar, Zaim Reha. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 11/2 (Ağustos 2024), 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032.
JAMA Yaşar ZR. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. JEPR. 2024;11:263–277.
MLA Yaşar, Zaim Reha. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 11, sy. 2, 2024, ss. 263-77, doi:10.26650/JEPR1477032.
Vancouver Yaşar ZR. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. JEPR. 2024;11(2):263-77.
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