FACTORS INFLUENCING PROFITABILITY IN DAIRY HERDS: A QUANTITATIVE METHOD APPROACH

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 2, 25 - 32, 21.11.2012

Hasan Cıcek Murat Tandogan Mehmet Yardımcı

Öz

ABSTRACT

This research was carried out to determine the factors affecting profits by quantitative methods in dairy cattle. The material of the study was obtained from 78 dairy enterprises running in Afyonkarahisar by random sampling method. Multiple regression method was used to predict the way and quantity of the relations between the profit per cattle and variables which were thought to have influences on profitability. All the independent variables involved in the model found to have significant effects on profit per cattle (P<0.001; P<0.05) according to the established prediction equation. This result indicated that a one TL increase in feed, labour, veterinarian-health, other and general management, maintenance and amortization expenditures on Y (profit/cattle) cause a decrease of -0.869; -0.838; -1.090; -2.168 and -1.163 TL respectively. However, a one liter additional gain in lactation milk yield and a one TL increase in the selling price of milk results in an increase of 0.193 and 45.815 TL respectively in Y (profit/cattle). The profitability of the enterprise is significantly affected due to the lack of farmers' using an initiative on determining the feed and milk prices.  It was concluded that, the function of profit regression model could be used as a decision support tool in case of any change in sale prices and cost-effect factors in milk production.

Key words: Milk production, regression model, decision support tool, profit function

 

SÜT SIĞIRCILIĞINDA KÂRLILIĞI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: KANTİTATİF YÖNTEM YAKLAŞIMI

ÖZET

Bu araştırma, süt sığırcılığında kara etkili faktörlerin kantitatif yöntemlerle tespit edilebilmesi amacıyla yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın materyali Afyonkarahisar'da faaliyet gösteren rastgele örnekleme yöntemiyle seçilen 78 süt sığırcılığı işletmesinden elde edilmiştir. Araştırmada sığır başına kar ile karlılığa etkisi olduğu düşünülen değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve miktarını belirlemek üzere çoklu regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Model tahmin sonuçlarına göre, analize dahil edilen tüm bağımsız değişkenlerin sığır başına kar (Y) üzerindeki etkisi önemli (P<0.001; P<0.05) bulunmuştur. Buna göre, yem, işçilik, veteriner-sağlık, diğer ve genel idare, bakım-onarım ve amortisman masraflarında 1 TL'lik artış Y (kar/sığır) üzerinde sırasıyla -0.869; -0.838; -1.090; -2.168 ve -1.163 TL değerinde azalmaya neden olmaktadır. Buna rağmen laktasyon süt veriminin 1 lt daha fazla elde edilmesi ve sütün satış fiyatındaki 1 TL değerindeki artış Y (kar/sığır) üzerinde sırasıyla 0.193 ve 45.815 TL'lik bir artışı sağlamaktadır. Üreticilerin yem ve süt fiyatlarında bir insiyatif kullanamaması işletme karlılığını önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Sonuç olarak, kar fonksiyonu regresyon modeli, süt üretiminde de fiyatların ve maliyet unsurlarının değişebileceği durumlarda karar destekleme aracı olarak kullanılabileceğini ortaya koymuştur.

Key words: Süt üretimi, regresyon modeli, karar destekleme aracı, kar fonksiyonu

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Süt üretimi, regresyon modeli, karar destekleme aracı, kar fonksiyonu

Kaynakça

• Andrus, D.F., Mc Gillard, L.D.: Selection of dairy cattle for overall excellence. J. Dairy Sci., 1974; 58: 1876-1879.
• Cevger, Y.: Quantitative methods to determine factors affecting profits of lamb fattening enterprises. Veterinarni Medicina, 2003; 48: 25-31.
• Dart, B.A., Lloyd, J.W., Radke, B.R., Black, J.R., Kanee, J.B.: A comparison of profitability and economic efficiencies between management intensive grazing and conventionally managed dairies in Michigan. J. Dairy Sci., 1999; 82: 2412-2420.
• Dhas, A.C., Doornbos, M., Nair, K.N.: Structure of milk production in Tamil Nadu: an analysis of trends and the sources of growth. CAB Abstracts, 1990-1991/83, 1990.
• Gill, G.S., Allaire, F.R.: Relationship of age at first calving, days open, days dry and herdlife to a profit function for dairy cattle. J. Dairy Sci., 1976; 59: 1131-1139.
• Gunlu, A., Yalcin, C., Imik, H., Kirikci, K.: Relationship between average milk production cost and some selected technical and socio-economic factors surrounding dairy herds. Indian J. Anim. Sci., 2003; 73: 1159-1162.
• Gunlu, A., Sakarya, E.: The analysis of profitability and productivity of dairy cattle enterprises in Konya Province and their production and marketing problems. J. Vet. Anim. Sci., 2001; 17: 97-105.
• Iype, S., Radhakrishnan, J., Raghavan, K.C.: Influence of socio-economic factors on milk production of crossbred cows in Kerala. Indian J. Anim. Sci., 1993; 12: 1299-1301.
• Kairon, R.S., Singh, R.V., Singh, H.: Resource use efficiency and optimum allocation in milk production on small farms in northern Haryana. J. Dairying, Foods and Home Sci., 1995; 3: 121-130.
• Kaps, M., Lamberson, W.R.: Biostatistics for Animal Science. First edition, CABI Publishing, London, 2004, 53-183.
• Kundu, A.K., Basu, S.B.: Efficient use of farm resource for optimum net income from dairying farmer. Indian J. Anim. Prod. and Manag., 1988; 4: 1-4.
• Ledin, I., Lema, A.: Associations between some social structural and technical factors and the milk production of dairy cows. Swedish J. Agric. Res., 1996; 26: 19-30.
• Mourtis, M.C.M., Dijkhuizen, A.A., Huirne, R.B.M., Galligan, D.T.: Technical and economic models to support heifer management decision: basic concepts. J. Dairy Sci., 1997; 7: 1406-1415.
• Rust, J.W., Sheaffer, C.C., Eidmen, V.R., Moon, R.D., Mathison, R.D.: Intensive rotational grazing for dairy cattle feeding. American J. Altern. Agric., 1995; 10: 147-151.
• S.P.O.: Livestock. T.R. Prime Ministry State Planning Organization, VOL Five Annual Development Plan Report, Ankara, 2001, 134-159.
• Stott, A.W., Delorenzo, M.A.: Factors influencing profitability of Jersey and Holstein lactations. J. Dairy Sci., 1988; 71: 1753-1766.
• Tripath, H., Kunzru, O.N.: Productivity of dairy animals and employment generation among rural women. Indian J. Anim. Sci., 1992; 63: 1295-1298.
• Turkyılmaz, M.K.: The efficiency of resource usage in dairy herds in Aydın Province and their marketing and organization problems. Phd thesis, University of Ankara, Graduate School of Health Sciences, 1999.
• Uyanık, S.: The Analysis of profitability in dairy cattle farms in the Burdur Region. Phd thesis, University of Ankara, Graduate School of Health Sciences, 2000.
• Van Arendonk, J.A.M.: Use of profit equations to determine relative economic value of dairy cattle herd life and production from field data. J. Dairy Sci., 1991; 74: 1101-1107.
• Young, C.W., Eidman, V.R., Reneau, J.K.: Animal health and management and their impact on economic efficiency. J. Anim. Sci., 1985; 68: 1593-1602.