FACTORS INFLUENCING PROFITABILITY IN DAIRY HERDS: A QUANTITATIVE METHOD APPROACH

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 2, 25 - 32, 21.11.2012

Hasan Cıcek , Murat Tandogan Mehmet Yardımcı

Öz

ABSTRACT

This research was carried out to determine the factors affecting profits by quantitative methods in dairy cattle. The material of the study was obtained from 78 dairy enterprises running in Afyonkarahisar by random sampling method. Multiple regression method was used to predict the way and quantity of the relations between the profit per cattle and variables which were thought to have influences on profitability. All the independent variables involved in the model found to have significant effects on profit per cattle (P<0.001; P<0.05) according to the established prediction equation. This result indicated that a one TL increase in feed, labour, veterinarian-health, other and general management, maintenance and amortization expenditures on Y (profit/cattle) cause a decrease of -0.869; -0.838; -1.090; -2.168 and -1.163 TL respectively. However, a one liter additional gain in lactation milk yield and a one TL increase in the selling price of milk results in an increase of 0.193 and 45.815 TL respectively in Y (profit/cattle). The profitability of the enterprise is significantly affected due to the lack of farmers' using an initiative on determining the feed and milk prices.  It was concluded that, the function of profit regression model could be used as a decision support tool in case of any change in sale prices and cost-effect factors in milk production.

Key words: Milk production, regression model, decision support tool, profit function

 

SÜT SIĞIRCILIĞINDA KÂRLILIĞI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: KANTİTATİF YÖNTEM YAKLAŞIMI

ÖZET

Bu araştırma, süt sığırcılığında kara etkili faktörlerin kantitatif yöntemlerle tespit edilebilmesi amacıyla yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın materyali Afyonkarahisar'da faaliyet gösteren rastgele örnekleme yöntemiyle seçilen 78 süt sığırcılığı işletmesinden elde edilmiştir. Araştırmada sığır başına kar ile karlılığa etkisi olduğu düşünülen değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve miktarını belirlemek üzere çoklu regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Model tahmin sonuçlarına göre, analize dahil edilen tüm bağımsız değişkenlerin sığır başına kar (Y) üzerindeki etkisi önemli (P<0.001; P<0.05) bulunmuştur. Buna göre, yem, işçilik, veteriner-sağlık, diğer ve genel idare, bakım-onarım ve amortisman masraflarında 1 TL'lik artış Y (kar/sığır) üzerinde sırasıyla -0.869; -0.838; -1.090; -2.168 ve -1.163 TL değerinde azalmaya neden olmaktadır. Buna rağmen laktasyon süt veriminin 1 lt daha fazla elde edilmesi ve sütün satış fiyatındaki 1 TL değerindeki artış Y (kar/sığır) üzerinde sırasıyla 0.193 ve 45.815 TL'lik bir artışı sağlamaktadır. Üreticilerin yem ve süt fiyatlarında bir insiyatif kullanamaması işletme karlılığını önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Sonuç olarak, kar fonksiyonu regresyon modeli, süt üretiminde de fiyatların ve maliyet unsurlarının değişebileceği durumlarda karar destekleme aracı olarak kullanılabileceğini ortaya koymuştur.

Key words: Süt üretimi, regresyon modeli, karar destekleme aracı, kar fonksiyonu

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Süt üretimi, regresyon modeli, karar destekleme aracı, kar fonksiyonu

Kaynakça

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