The Impact of Inflation on Income Distribution: The Role of Bargaining Power

Öz

The inflation rate has been assumed as one of the core factors affecting the redistribution of income among different social strata. However, its effect on income distribution is rarely interacted by another variable. This paper investigates the implication of bargaining power indicators for workers on the relationship between inflation and income distribution (measured with labor share of income). The fixed effect is used to estimate balanced panel dataset which includes yearly data from 1980 to 2017 for selected 19 advanced economies. The estimates of inflation and bargaining power indicators show that an increase in inflation will unexpectedly increase the income shares accrued to labor and a higher degree of unionization will increase the labor’s share. However, the unemployment rate as considered another bargaining power indicator has some mixed results with statistically insignificant coefficients. Meanwhile, the positive effect of inflation will be mitigated by higher degree of unionization and unemployment rate, suggesting the existence of a mediating effect from the bargaining power indicators. Therefore, the economic authorities are advised to consider fallback options of workers as they may have either direct or indirect effects on income distribution through its interaction with inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Labor Share of Income
• Inflation
• Income Distribution
• Bargaining Power
• Panel Data Analysis

Enflasyonun Gelir Dağılımı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Pazarlık Gücünün Rolü

Öz

Enflasyon oranı, farklı sosyal katmalar arasında gelirin yeniden dağılımını etkileyen temel faktörlerden biri olarak kabul edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi, ender olarak başka bir değişkenle etkileşime sahiptir. Bu makale, emek kesimi için pazarlık gücü değişkenlerinin enflasyon ve gelir dağılımı (emek payı ile hesaplanmaktadır) arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Seçili 19 gelişmiş ülke ekonomisi için 1980’den 2017’ye kadar yıllık serileri içeren dengeli panel veri seti sabit etkiler ile tahmin edilmek için kullanılmaktadır. Enflasyon ve pazarlık gücü değişkenlerine ait tahminler, enflasyondaki artışın emek kesiminin gelir payını beklenmedik bir şekilde artırdığını ve daha yüksek oranlı sendikalaşmanın emek payını aynı şekilde artırdığını göstermektedir. Ancak, bir başka pazarlık gücü göstergesi olarak kabul edilen işsizlik oranının, istatistiksel olarak anlamsız katsayı tahminlerine sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Öte yandan, elde edilen tahmin sonuçları, sendikalaşma ve işsizlik oranının yüksek olmasının enflasyonunun olumlu etkisini azaltacağını işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle, ekonomik otoritelerin, enflasyonla etkileşimi yoluyla gelir dağılımı üzerinde doğrudan veya dolaylı etkileri olabileceğinden, emek kesiminin geri dönüş seçeneklerini dikkate almaları belirtilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Emek Gelir Payı
• Enflasyon
• Gelir Dağılımı
• Pazarlık Gücü
• Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

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