EXPLANATION OF THE TURKISH INFLATION RATE WITH FISHERIES EXPORT AND IMPORT

Öz

Turkey has a very high potential in terms of fisheries and its fisheries production has steadily increasing. As a result, the export value has been multiplied by a factor of 9 compared to the beginning of 2000’s by reaching up to $413 million and the import value increased by a factor of 5 during the same period by reaching up to $176 million. The purpose of this study was to explain the factors that affect the inflation rate with a multiple regression model. Therefore, we used the time series. Time Series (Time Series data): Most macroeconomic variables which are observed in equal time periods belong to this group (e.g. Gross Domestic Production, the inflation and interest rates, exchange rates, the Istanbul Stock Exchange Index, etc.). In this study, we analysed Turkey’s inflation rates of the last 27 years with respect to fisheries import ($) and export ($), using the multiple regression analysis method. With the help of the regression analysis model, we were able to explain 66% of Turkey’s inflation rate with fisheries export ($) values.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• -

Kaynakça

1. Anderson TW, 2003, An Introduction to multivariate statistical analysis, 3rd Edition, 752.
2. Bayhan B, Kop A, Saygı H, 2011, The forecast of the future production amounts of the some fish species being cultivated in Turkey, Kafkas Üniversitesi Veterinerlik Fakültesi Dergisi 7, 13-20.
3. Bayhan, B, Saygı H, 2011, Analysis of Turkey’s import demand of fishery products, African Journal of Agricultural Research 6, 1853-1856.
4. Bezgingöl H, 2012, Korelasyon regresyon,
5. Türk Aktüerya Bilimleri Akademisi. Available: http://wwwaktueryabilimlericom/arsiv/Dersnotlari/
6. regresyonkorelasyonpdf. Accessed 15 April2014.
7. DÐE, 1986-2004, Su Ürünleri Ðstatistikleri.
8. Draper, NR, Smith H, 1981, Applied regression analysis. New York , USA, John Wiley and Sons, 2nd ed. 709.

9. Elbek AE, Oktay E, Saygı H, 2013, Su ürünlerinde temel istatistik. Ðzmir, 278.
10. FAO, 2012, The state of world fisheries and aquaculture. Rome, FAO. 209. Accessed 05 May 2014.
11. Gujarati, 1992, Essentials of Econometrics. New York, McGraw-Hill. 466.
12. Gülo€lu B, Nazlıo€lu Þ, 2013, Enflasyonun tarımsal fiyatlar üzerindeki etkileri: Panel yumuþak geçiþ regresyo nanalizi, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araþtırmaları Dergisi 1, 1-20.
13. Kutlar A, 2007, Ekonometriye giriþ.Ankara, Nobel Yayınevi. 433.
14. Maddala GS, Kim Inn-Moo, 2002, Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Changes. U.K, Cambridge Üniversity Press. 189.
15. Rawlings JO, Pantula SG, Dickey DA, 1998, Applied regression analysis: A research tool, 2. Edition, Springer, 671.
16. Saygð H, Kop A, Bayhan B, 2011, The forecast of the future production amounts of the some fish speciez being cultivated in Turkey, Kafkas Üniversitesi Veterinerlik Fakültesi Dergisi 7, 13-20.
17. Sayð H, Bayhan B, 2011, Analysis of Turkey’s import demand of fishery products, African Journal of Agricultural Research 6, 1853-1856.
18. Sevüktekin M, Nargeleçekenler M, 2010, Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizi (Eviews Uygulamalı). Ankara, Nobel Yayın Da€ıtım, 399.
19. Þenol S, Saygı H, 2001, Su Ürünleri tüketimi için bir ekonometrik model, Ege Üniversitesi Su Ürünleri Fakültesi Dergisi 18, 383-390.
20. TUÐK, 1986-2012, Enflasyon verileri, Available: http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/anaweb/ enflasyonTR.html
21. TUÐK, (2005-2012) Türkiye su ürünleri istatistikleri.
22. Yalta AT, 2011, Ekonometri 1 Ders Notları. Available: http://yalta.etu.edu.tr/files/ekonometri1- kitap-surumu-(s2,0).pdf. Accessed 11 August 2014.