Determining the future trends of safflower plant in Türkiye
Abstract
The aim of this study is to reveal the current situation of safflower in Türkiye, to make future forecasts about safflower planting area, production quantity, yield and producer prices. The Double Exponential Smoothing Method was used in time series analysis for future forecasts. The time series used were obtained from FAO and TUIK statistics. Five-year (2022-2026) future projections were made for the planting area, production quantity, and yield using safflower data between 1988-2021. For the producer prices, the data between the years 2004-2021 were used. According to the results of the study, it is forecasted that in the next 5 years, there will be a reduction average of 54 decares of safflower in the planting areas and an average of 515 tons of reduction in the production quantity each year. Producer prices are expected to increase by an average of 20% per year. Although it is predicted that there will be a very small increase in yield for each year, it is predicted that there will be a 2.5% yield increase at the end of 5 years. In order to prevent the decrease in safflower production and to increase production, it is recommended to provide purchase guarantee to producers, to support entrepreneurs, to carry out studies on modern cultivation practices, marketing and promotion.
Keywords
Safflower, Future Forecast, Double Exponential Smoothing Method, Türkiye
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