Drought analysis using standard precipitation index and impact on agriculture: the case study of Elmalı
Abstract
This study aimed to determine the distribution and trend of 3 and 6-month drought and humid periods in the Elmalı district of Antalya province, which is located in the Mediterranean Region, between 1970 and 2023. Additionally, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) methods were employed to calculate meteorological and agricultural drought indices. The Reference Evapotranspiration values used in determining the moisture deficit of the SPEI method were calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. The Innovative Şen (ITA) trend analysis method was employed to determine the trend of 3- and 6-month index values obtained using drought index methods. According to the results obtained in the research, the longest severe droughts took place in the Elmalı district in 1988-1990 and 2006-2008. In addition, the longest periods of severe moisture were experienced in this time series in 1991-1992, 2001-2002 and 2010-2011. When the trends of the index values obtained for the Elmalı district were examined, no statistical change was found. However, the entire 3 and 6-month values were found to have a statistically insignificant increasing trend in humidity. According to the study results, it is recommended that, considering the increasing impacts of climate change, drought analyses should be conducted periodically throughout Antalya province, including Elmalı and other regions.
Keywords
Agricultural drought, climate change, global warming, trend analysis
Supporting Institution
The authors declare that this study received no financial support.
Ethical Statement
Ethical approval was not required for this study.
Thanks
The authors thank the Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture and Antalya Meteorology Regional Directorate for support.
References
- Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S, Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements - FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. https://www.fao.org/4/x0490e/x0490e00.htm
- Aydın, T. (2019). Elmalı ilçesinin coğrafyası. (in Türkish) İktisad yayınevi; 2, Antalya; 614 s. https://iksadyayinevi.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ELMALI-%C4%B0L%C3%87ES%C4%B0N%C4%B0N-CO%C4%9ERAFYASI.pdf
- Bacanlı, Ü.G., & Akşan, G.N. (2019). Drought analysis in Mediterranean Region. Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences, 25(6), 665-671. https://doi.org/10.5505/pajes.2019.64507
- Caloiero, T. (2020). Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(1), 493-504. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02988-5
- Cebeci, İ., Demirkıran, O., Doğan, O., Karagöz Sezer, K., Öztürk, Ö., & Elbaşı, F. (2019). Drought Assessment Of Turkey Based On The Provinces. (Türkiye’nin İller Bazında Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi). Soil Water Journal (Toprak Su Dergisi), Special Issue, 169-176. https://doi.org/10.21657/topraksu.655613
- Ceyhunlu, A.I. (2023). Effect of climate change on precipitation-temperature data in Turkey and drought assessment with stochastic time series models (İklim değişikliğinin Türkiye'de yağış-sıcaklık verileri üzerindeki etkisi ve stokastik zaman seri modelleri ile kuraklık değerlendirmesi). Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, Graduate Education Institute PhD Thesis (Doktora Tezi). Sakarya Uygulamalı Bilimler Üniversitesi Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Sakarya, Türkiye, pp: 169.
- Dabanlı, İ. (2017). Climate change impact on precipitation-temperature in Turkey and drought analysis: Akarcay case study (Türkiye'de iklim değişikliğinin yağış-sıcaklığa etkisi ve kuraklık analizi: Akarcay örneği). Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering Doctor of Philosophy Program (Hidrolik ve Su Kaynakları Mühendisliği Doktora Programı) PhD Thesis (Doktora Tezi). Istanbul Technical University, (İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü), İstanbul, Türkiye, pp: 198.
- Demir, İ., Kılıç, G., & Coşkun, M. (2008). Precis bölgesel iklim modeli ile Türkiye için iklim öngörüleri: HadAMP3 Sres A2 Senaryosu. IV. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu, Bildiriler Kitabı, syf: 365-37. https://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/yayinlar/iklimongoruleri.pdf
- Dinç, N., Aydınşakir, K., Işık, M., & Büyüktaş, D. (2014). Drought analysis of Antalya province by standardized precipitation index (SPI). Derim, 33(2), 270-280. https://doi.org/10.16882/derim.2016.267912
- Durgun, E.C. (2025). Investigation of the relationship of atmospheric indices and drought in the Mediterranean Region (Atmosferik indisler ile Akdeniz Bölgesi kuraklıkları ilişkisinin araştırılması). Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Civil Engineering (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Harran Üniversitesi, Şanlıurfa, Türkiye, pp: 233.
