Reinforcement Learning-Based Kalman Filtering for Glucose Prediction

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 89 - 98, 23.12.2025

Ömer Atılım Koca , Bengü Fetiler , Volkan Kılıç

Öz

Accurate prediction of glucose levels in diabetes patients is critical for preventing complications such as hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. In recent years, the implementation of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems has enabled the development of prediction models. Among these models, Kalman filtering (KF) and its variants, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), have been widely applied for modeling both linear and nonlinear systems. However, these filtering models depend on fixed parameters, which limits their adaptability to changing physiological conditions and reduces their performance for long-term prediction. Recent advancements in machine learning enable continuous dynamic adaptation to changing conditions, providing an effective solution to these limitations. In particular, Q-Learning (QL), a reinforcement learning algorithm, can dynamically update model parameters based on environmental feedback, thereby enabling more accurate and personalized glucose predictions. This study investigates the glucose prediction performance of hybrid models that integrate KF, EKF, and UKF with QL algorithm. Experimental evaluations were conducted on the OhioT1DM dataset, using various parameter configurations across multiple prediction horizons ranging from 5 to 90 minutes. Results demonstrate that the standard KF provides high accuracy for short-term predictions, while the UKF shows superior performance for long-term prediction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kalman Filter , Q-Learning , Reinforcement Learning , Glucose Prediction , Diabetes Management , Continuous Glucose Monitoring

Etik Beyan

This study did not involve any human or animal experimentation by the authors. The data used in this study were obtained from the publicly available OhioT1DM dataset, which is fully anonymized and ethically approved by its original collectors.

Destekleyen Kurum

Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK)

Proje Numarası

222S488

Teşekkür

This study was supported by Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the Grant Number 222S488. The authors thank to TUBITAK for their supports.

Glikoz Tahmini için Pekiştirmeli Öğrenme Tabanlı Kalman Filtre

Öz

Diyabet hastalarında glikoz seviyelerinin doğru bir şekilde tahmin edilmesi, hipoglisemi ve hiperglisemi gibi komplikasyonların önlenmesi için çok önemlidir. Son yıllarda, sürekli glikoz izleme (CGM) sistemlerinin uygulanması, tahmin modellerinin geliştirilmesini mümkün kılmıştır. Bu modeller arasında Kalman filtreleme (KF) ve onun varyantları olan genişletilmiş Kalman filtresi (EKF) ve kokusuz Kalman filtresi (UKF), hem doğrusal hem de doğrusal olmayan sistemlerin modellenmesinde yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Ancak, bu filtreleme modelleri sabit parametrelere bağlıdır, bu da değişen fizyolojik koşullara uyum sağlama yeteneklerini sınırlar ve uzun vadeli tahminlerde performanslarını düşürür. Makine öğrenimindeki son gelişmeler, değişen koşullara sürekli dinamik uyum sağlamayı mümkün kılarak bu sınırlamalara etkili bir çözüm sunmaktadır. Özellikle, pekiştirmeli öğrenme algoritması olan Q-Öğrenme (QL), çevresel geri bildirimlere dayalı olarak model parametrelerini dinamik olarak güncelleyerek daha doğru ve kişiselleştirilmiş glikoz tahminleri sağlar. Bu çalışma, KF, EKF ve UKF'yi QL algoritmasıyla entegre eden hibrit modellerin glikoz tahmin performansını incelemektedir. Deney değerlendirmeleri, 5 ila 90 dakika arasında değişen çoklu tahmin ufuklarında çeşitli parametre yapılandırmaları kullanılarak OhioT1DM veri seti üzerinde gerçekleştirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, standart KF'nin kısa vadeli tahminlerde yüksek doğruluk sağlarken, UKF'nin uzun vadeli tahminlerde üstün performans gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kalman Filtre , Q-Öğrenme , Pekiştirmeli Öğrenme , Glikoz Tahmini , Diyabet Yönetimi , Sürekli Glikoz İzleme

Etik Beyan

This study did not involve any human or animal experimentation by the authors. The data used in this study were obtained from the publicly available OhioT1DM dataset, which is fully anonymized and ethically approved by its original collectors.

Destekleyen Kurum

Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK)

Proje Numarası

222S488

Teşekkür

This study was supported by Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the Grant Number 222S488. The authors thank to TUBITAK for their supports.

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