Ara ve Sermaye Malları İthalatı Verimliliği Etkiler mi? Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye’den Kanıtlar.

Öz

Amaç: Küresel değer zincirleri, üretimi ülkeler arasında bölüştürerek ticareti yoğunlaştırır ve karşılıklı bağımlılıklar yaratır. Son zamanlarda bazı ülkeler ticaret kısıtlamaları getirerek bu kaynak verimli yapıları ve küresel ekonomik ilişkileri zorlamaktadır. Bu çalışma, ara malların ve sermaye mallarının ithalatının verimliliği nasıl etkilediğini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Yöntem: Verimlilik genellikle emek, sermaye, enerji veya toplam verimlilik (TFP) kullanılarak hesaplanır. Bu araştırma, verimliliği toplam çıktının ara girdiye bölünmesi olarak tanımlamakta ve 2010-2022 yılları arasındaki FIGARO girdi-çıktı tablolarını kullanarak 23 Avrupa Birliği ülkesi ve Türkiye'yi incelemektedir. Çalışmada, geçmiş verimlilik seviyelerinin iç dinamiklerini yakalamak için İki Aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Moment Tahmincisi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular: Polonya, Slovakya, Kıbrıs, İtalya ve Belçika hariç, ara malların ithalatı verimliliği %2,52-25,27 oranında artırmaktadır. Buna karşılık, yatırım mallarının ithalatı Macaristan, Letonya, Polonya, İsveç ve Slovakya hariç tüm ülkelerde verimliliği %0,54 ile %9,15 arasında düşürmektedir. Sonuç ve Katkılar: Literatüre alternatif olarak tanımlanan verimlilik değişkeni, 19344 veri kullanılarak incelenmiş ve açıklayıcı değişkenlerle istikrarlı ve güçlü bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Ara malları ithalatının verimlilik üzerindeki etkisi önceki çalışmalarla tutarlı olsa da yatırım mallarının ithalatına ilişkin sonuçlar paradoksaldır. Bu araştırma, firma düzeyindeki veriler yerine makroekonomik ölçekteki verileri kullanması bakımından da diğerlerinden farklıdır. Sınırlılıklar: Sermaye gelirleri, girdi-çıktı tablolarında işletme fazlası olarak gösterilir ancak makine ve ekipman gibi üretim araçlarının getirilerini veya değerlerini yansıtmaz; bu da verimlilik ölçümünü sınırlar.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Verimlilik
• Ara malı ithalatı
• Yatırım malı ithalatı
• Girdi-Çıktı
• OP-LP.

Do Intermediate and Capital Goods Imports Affect Productivity? Evidence from the European Union and Türkiye.

Abstract

Purpose: Global value chains divide production between countries, intensifying trade and creating interdependencies. Recently, some countries have imposed trade restrictions, straining these resource-efficient structures and global economic relations. This study aims to determine how the import of intermediate and capital goods affects productivity. Methodology: Productivity is usually calculated using labor, capital, energy, or total productivity (TFP). This research defines productivity as total output divided by intermediate input, examining 23 European Union countries and Turkey with FIGARO input-output tables from 2010 to 2022. The study used the Two-Stage System Generalized Moment Estimator method to capture the internal dynamics of past productivity levels. Findings: For countries other than Poland, Slovakia, Cyprus, Italy and Belgium, imports of intermediate goods increase productivity in the range of 2.52 to 25.27 percent. Imports of investment goods, on the other hand, reduce productivity in the range of 0.54 to 9.15 percent in all countries except Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Sweden and Slovakia. Implications: The productivity variable, defined as an alternative to the literature, was examined using 19344 data, and it was observed to have a stable, strong relationship with the explanatory variables. Although the effect of imports of intermediate goods on productivity is consistent with previous studies, the results for imports of investment goods are paradoxical. The research differs from others in that it uses macroeconomic-scale data rather than firm-level data. Limitation: Capital incomes are shown as operating surpluses in the input-output tables but do not reflect the returns or values of production tools such as machinery and equipment, which limits productivity measurement.

Keywords

• Productivity
• Intermediate goods imports
• Investment goods imports
• Input-Output
• OP-LP Model.

Kaynakça

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