Dominium Inter Ruinas: The Transformation of the 2024 Hualien Earthquake into an Identity Perception and Conflict of Sovereignty

Öz

This study offers a comparative analysis of the attitudes and diplomatic activities of Japan and China toward Taiwan after the 2024 Hualien earthquake. The central motivation behind the study is to question the conditions under which disaster diplomacy succeeds and those under which it falls short. Although the disaster diplomacy literature suggests that natural disasters carry a potential for cooperation and rapprochement between parties, the question of why this potential materialises in certain contexts while remaining limited in others has not been sufficiently addressed. This study seeks to fill that gap by re-examining disaster diplomacy through the lens of identity perception and a social constructivist approach. The study applies a qualitative comparative analysis method. Within this framework, the post-disaster discourses, diplomatic initiatives, and aid practices of Japan and China are examined. The findings indicate that the success of disaster diplomacy is closely tied to how the recipient actor is defined and perceived, irrespective of the material capacity or scale of the aid provided. While Japan's disaster diplomacy toward Taiwan further strengthened the already positive relations between the two countries, China's disaster diplomacy and humanitarian assistance process deepened the already strained ties. China's initiatives were not perceived as goodwill gestures by Taiwan; on the contrary, they were regarded as concealing ulterior motives. Accordingly, the study demonstrates that disaster diplomacy is by no means an apolitical process and that it can, in fact, reproduce existing disputes over identity, status, and sovereignty.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Disaster Diplomacy
• Taiwan
• Hualien Earthquake
• Identity Perception
• Sovereignty
• Japan-Taiwan Relations
• China-Taiwan Tensions

Dominium Inter Ruinas: 2024 Hualien Depremi'nin "Kimlik Algılaması" ve "Egemenlik Savaşı"na Dönüşümü

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2024 yılında Tayvan'ın Hualien kentinde meydana gelen depremin ardından Japonya ve Çin'in Tayvan'a yönelik tutumlarını ve diplomatik faaliyetlerini karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmektedir. Çalışmanın temel motivasyonu, afet diplomasisinin hangi koşullar altında başarılı olduğunu hangi koşullarda ise başarısız olduğunu sorgulamaktır. Afet diplomasisi literatürü, doğal afetlerin taraflar arasında işbirliği ve yumuşama potansiyeli taşıdığını öne sürse de, bu potansiyelin neden bazı bağlamlarda gerçekleştiği, bazılarında ise sınırlı kaldığı sorusu literetürde yeterince ele alınmamştır. Bu çalışma, söz konusu boşluğu doldurmak amacıyla afet diplomasisini kimlik algılaması ve sosyal inşaacı bir yaklaşımla yeniden ele almayı amaçlamıştır. Çalışmada, nitel karşılaştırmalı analiz yöntemi esas alınmıştır. Buna kapsamda Japonya ile Çin'in afet sonrası söylemleri, diplomatik girişimleri ve yardım pratikleri incelenmiştir. Buna göre afet diplomasisinin başarısı yardımların maddi kapasitesinden ve boyutunda bağımsız olarak yardımın yöneltildiği aktörün nasıl tanımlandığı ve algılandığıyla yakından ilişkili olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Japonya'nın Tayvan'a yönelik afet diplomasisi halihazırda iyi olan iki ülke arasındaki ilişkileri daha da güçlendirirken; Çin'in Tayvan'a yönelik afet diplomasisi ve insani yardım süreci ise halihazırda bozuk olan ilişkileri daha da germiştir. Çin'in afet diplomasisi ve girişimleri Tayvan tarafından iyi niyetle algılanmamış; aksine Çin'in diplomatik faaliyetlerinin ardında art niyetli olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Buna göre afet diplomasisinin, apolitik bir süreç olmadığı ve mevcut kimlik, statü ve egemenlik tartışmalarını yeniden üretebildiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Afet Diplomasisi
• Tayvan
• Hualien Depremi
• Kimlik Algılaması
• Egemenlik
• Japonya-Tayvan İlişkileri
• Çin-Tayvan Gerilimi.

Kaynakça

1. Ahmad, Q. K., & Ahmed, A. U. (2003). Regional cooperation in flood management in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna region: Bangladesh perspective. Natural Hazards, 28(1), 181-198.
2. Akcinaroglu, S., DiCicco, J. M., & Radziszewski, E. (2011). Avalanches and olive branches: A multimethod analysis of disasters and peacemaking in interstate rivalries. Political Research Quarterly, 64(2), 260-275.
3. Aytekin, E. (2024). Taiwan rejects China’s earthquake aid offer. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/taiwan-rejects-chinas-earthquake-aid-offer/3182878
4. Bakir, A., & Kılıç, E. (2023, 29 Mart). Can disaster diplomacy overcome geopolitical differences after Turkey’s devastating earthquake? Manara Magazine. https://manaramagazine.org/2023/03/disaster-diplomacy-turkey-earthquake/
5. BBC News. (2024). Taiwan earthquake: Dozens stuck in tunnels after biggest quake in 25 years. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-68720022
6. Center for Disaster Philanthropy. (2024). 2024 Taiwan (Hualien) earthquake. https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2024-taiwan-earthquake/
7. Chiu, Y.-C. (2024). Beijing grows anxious over the internationalisation of cross-strait relations. East Asia Forum. https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/11/19/beijing-grows-anxious-over-the-internationalisation-of-cross-strait-relations/
8. Christianity Today. (2024). Taiwan earthquake: Hualien Christian disaster relief. Christianity Today. https://www.christianitytoday.com/2024/04/taiwan-earthquake-hualien-christian-disaster-relief/

9. Connaroe, R. J. (2024, Mayıs). Lawfare and counter-lawfare after the 2024 Taiwan earthquake. Indo-Pacific Defense Forum. https://ipdefenseforum.com/2024/05/lawfare-and-counter-lawfare-after-the-2024-taiwan-earthquake/
10. de Guzman, C. (2024). Why China offered earthquake aid to Taiwan—and why Taiwan quickly rejected it. TIME. https://time.com/6963305/taiwan-rejects-china-aid-earthquake-politics/
11. Fritz, C. E. (1961). Disaster. In R. K. Merton & R. A. Nisbet (Eds.), Contemporary Social Problems (ss. 651-694). New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace and World.
12. Glantz, M. H. (1976). The politics of natural disaster: The case of the Sahel drought. New York, NY: Praeger.
13. Glantz, M. H. (2000). Climate-related disaster diplomacy: A US-Cuban case study. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 14(1), 233-253.
14. Glaser, B., Weiss, J. C., & Green, M. J. (2023). U.S.-Taiwan relations in a new era: Responding to a more assertive China (Independent Task Force Report No. 81). Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/task-force-reports/us-taiwan-relations-in-a-new-era/cdn/ff/Ig_ZOuCbVzeNEasQrQ3Evyn2UdT3rn-2TreCp8i-BqE/1687531766/public/2023-06/TFR81_U.S.-TaiwanRelationsNewEra_SinglePages_2023-06-05_Online.pdf
15. Gross, A. (2025). As Japan’s relations with China grow more distant, relations with Taiwan improve. Taiwan Insight. https://taiwaninsight.org/2025/12/23/as-japans-relations-with-china-grow-more-distant-relations-with-taiwan-improve/
16. Haenle, P., & Sher, N. (2022). How Pelosi’s Taiwan visit has set a new status quo for U.S.-China tensions. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2022/08/how-pelosis-taiwan-visit-has-set-a-new-status-quo-for-us-china-tensions?lang=en
17. Hass, R., & Hsu, S. P. (2022, 22 August). Beyond Pelosi’s Taiwan visit: Uncertainties about cross-strait stability. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/beyond-pelosis-taiwan-visit-uncertainties-about-cross-strait-stability/
18. Heard, C. (2024). Disaster resilience, sovereignty, and the 2024 Hualien earthquake. Australian Institute of International Affairs. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/disaster-resilience-sovereignty-and-the-2024-hualien-earthquake/
19. Holloway, A. (2000). Drought emergency, yes... drought disaster, no: Southern Africa 1991-93. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 14(1), 254-276.
20. İzmir Kent Haber. (2023). Tayvan’da Türkiye için 2 günde binlerce koli yardım toplandı. İzmir Kent Haber. https://www.izmirkenthaber.com.tr/tayvan-da-turkiye-icin-2-gunde-binlerce-koli-yardim-toplandi/82623
21. Japan Prime Minister’s Office [Kantei]. (2024). Message of condolences from Prime Minister KISHIDA Fumio following the earthquake in eastern Taiwan. https://japan.kantei.go.jp/101_kishida/decisions/2024/03message.html
22. Japan Times. (2024). Japan lifts tsunami advisory after strong quake hits Taiwan. Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/04/03/japan/okinawa-tsunami-warning/
23. Katzenstein, P. J. (1996). The culture of national security: Norms and identity in world politics. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.
24. Kelman, I. (2006a). Acting on disaster diplomacy. Journal of International Affairs, 59(2), 215-240.
25. Kelman, I. (2006b). Disaster diplomacy: Hope despite evidence? World Watch Institute Guest Essay.
26. Kelman, I. (2007). Weather-related disaster diplomacy. Weather and Society Watch, 1(3), 4, 9.
27. Kelman, I. (2010). Climate change diplomacy for islands. HazNet, 2(1), 19-23. https://www.ilankelman.org/articles1/chnet2010.pdf
28. Kelman, I. (2011). Disaster diplomacy: How disasters affect peace and conflict. London, England: Routledge.
29. Kelman, I. (2014). Does disaster diplomacy improve inter-state relations? E-International Relations. https://www.e-ir.info/2014/11/04/does-disaster-diplomacy-improve-inter-state-relations/
30. Kelman, I. (2020a). China’s coronavirus diplomacy? The Polar Connection. https://polarconnection.org/china-coronavirus-diplomacy/
31. Kelman, I. (2020b). Disaster diplomacy after 20 years. Psychology Today. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/disaster-choice/202010/disaster-diplomacy-after-20-years
32. Kelman, I. (n.d.). China/Taiwan disaster diplomacy. Disaster Diplomacy. https://www.disasterdiplomacy.org/chinataiwan.html
33. Kelman, I., & Gaillard, J. C. (2007). Disaster diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region. UN/ISDR Informs: Disaster Reduction in Asia Pacific, 3, 54–57. https://www.disasterdiplomacy.org/kelmanetal.ddisdr.pdf
34. Kelman, I., & Koukis, T. (Eds.). (2000). Disaster diplomacy [Özel bölüm]. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 14(1), 214-294.
35. Kelman, I., Gaillard, J. C., & Klimesova, M. (2016). Disaster diplomacy for Asia and the Middle East. Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/publications/disaster-diplomacy-asia-and-middle-east
36. Kelman, I., Sydnes, A. K., Duda, P. I., Nikitina, E., & Webersik, C. (2020). Norway-Russia disaster diplomacy for Svalbard. Safety Science, 130, 104896.
37. Ker-Lindsay, J. (2000). Greek-Turkish rapprochement: The impact of ‘disaster diplomacy’? Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 14(1), 215-232.
38. Klimesova, M. (2011). Using carrots to bring peace? Negotiation and third party involvement [Doktora tezi, Charles University in Prague].
39. Kovach, T. (2015). Catalyzing cooperation: Disaster diplomacy and its potential to short-circuit the climate-conflict link. PreventionWeb. https://www.preventionweb.net/news/catalyzing-cooperation-disaster-diplomacy-and-its-potential-short-circuit-climate-conflict
40. Lee, S. (2024). Quake starts virtuous cycle [Editöre mektup]. Taipei Times. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2024/04/21/2003816714
41. Lubold, G. (2009). Helping after Taiwan typhoon, US avoids confronting China. Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2009/0819/p02s05-usfp.html
42. Olson, R. S. (2000). Toward a politics of disaster: Losses, values, agendas and blame. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 18(2), 265-287.
43. Pelling, M. (2003). The vulnerability of cities: Natural disasters and social resilience. London, England: Earthscan.
44. Pelling, M., & Dill, K. (2010). Disaster politics: Tipping points for change in the adaptation of sociopolitical regimes. Progress in Human Geography, 34(1), 21-37.
45. Reinhardt, G. Y., & Lutmar, C. (2022). Disaster diplomacy: The intricate links between disaster and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 59(1), 3–11. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221074791
46. Shangyi, L. (2025). China’s Taiwan Affairs Office launches section to report ‘malicious acts against Taiwan compatriots’. Asia News Network. https://asianews.network/chinas-taiwan-affairs-office-launches-section-to-report-malicious-acts-against-taiwan-compatriots/
47. Specter, E. (2024). How to help Taiwan in the aftermath of its massive earthquake. Vogue UK. https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/taiwan-earthquake
48. Sperzel, M., O’Neil, A., Wugang, K., Karas, J., Wall, A., & Chou, A. (2026). China & Taiwan update, January 16, 2026. Institute for the Study of War. https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-january-16-2025/
49. State Council Information Office [SCIO]. (2024). Spokesperson: Mainland ready to aid disaster relief after Taiwan earthquake. http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2024-04/03/content_117104178.htm
50. State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. (2024). Spokesperson: Mainland ready to provide aid to quake-hit area of Hualien. http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2024-04/28/content_117155437.htm
51. T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı İletişim Başkanlığı. (2023). Deprem dezenformasyon bültenleri (6 Şubat- 14 Mart). https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/images/uploads/dosyalar/Deprem_Dezenformasyon_Bultenleri_%286_Subat_14_Mart%29.pdf
52. Wendt, A. (1999). Social theory of international politics. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
53. Xinhua. (2024). Mainland ready to provide aid to quake-hit area of Hualien: Spokesperson. Xinhua. https://english.news.cn/20240427/d9c2e2a8360749479907deb7a16669c7/c.html
54. Yamamoto, K. (2025). Taiwan from the Japanese perspective (Policy Brief No. 245). Toda Peace Institute. https://toda.org/policy-briefs-and-resources/policy-briefs/report-245-full-text.html
55. Zhang, Y. (2024). Mainland to send support to earthquake-affected areas of Taiwan. People’s Daily Online. https://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0428/c90000-20162479.html
56. Zhang, Y., & Li, M. (2024). Mainland offers aid to Taiwan after powerful earthquake. China Daily. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/03/WS660cc9daa31082fc043c03d6.htm