THE RELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH PANEL DATA ANALYSIS IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship between inflation, unemployment and economic growth variables for selected OECD (France, Australia, Canada, Germany, Iceland, Poland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Turkey) countries using the data set for the years 2010-2020. with to reveal. In order to determine whether the economic growth variable has an effect on unemployment and inflation, unit root tests were first conducted for the variables used in the study. According to the results of the test, it was determined that the variables contained unit root. Considering the data obtained from this study, the hypothesis that there is no cointegration at the 5% significance level on average is rejected. According to Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test, although a bidirectional causality relationship was detected between growth and unemployment variables, a unidirectional causality relationship was found between unemployment and inflation variables. In this context, it is known that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables (economic growth, inflation, unemployment) for at least one of the countries. It is expected that this study will contribute to the literature with current data and new generation econometric tests.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Unemployment
• Economic Growth
• Panel Data
• Stata

Kaynakça

1. Altıntaş Halil, Koçbulut Özgür, (2019), International Journal of Management, Economics and Business, Vol 15, Number 3, 2019 Int. Journal of Management Economics and Business, Vol. 15, No. 3
2. Demir, Y., Görür, Ç.(2020). OECD Ülkelerine Ait Çeşitli Enerji Tüketimleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi ile İncelenmesi, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 32, 15-33.https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2020.32.0005
3. Eroglu, Omer; (2002), Turkish Economy, Bilim Bookstore, Isparta.
4. Fetullah Akın 'Why Can't Unemployment, The Most Important Problem of Economies, Be Solved?' 2007 Free of charge
5. İlker; (1997), Modern Growth Theories, Ezgi Bookstore, Bursa
6. Growth Strategies Working Group, “Growth Strategies”, 2004 Turkish Economy Congress, Volume 11: Working Group Reports-I, http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ekonomi/tik2004/vol11.pdf, p:9
7. Hülya Kanalıcı AKAY, Nejla Adanur AKLAN, Mehmet ÇINAR 'Economic Growth and Unemployment in the Turkish Economy', Journal of Management and Economics Studies - Vol:14 Issue:1 (January 2016) - Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/ JMER775
8. Hasan Yaşar, 'Growth and Unemployment in Turkey', Master Thesis, 2008

9. Mehmet Şentürk, Yusuf Ekrem AKBAŞ 'Evaluation of the Reciprocal Relationship Between Unemployment-Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey', Journal of Yasar University 2014 9(34) 5820-5832
10. Mustafa YILMAZ, 'The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investments and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Analysis', Master Thesis, 2008
11. Mehmet Bölükbaş 'The Relationship of Economic Growth with Inflation and Unemployment in Turkey: A Research at the Regional Level', TESAM Academy Journal - Turkish Journal of TESAM Academy Turkish Economy Special Issue. 185-211 ISSN: 2148 - 2462 E-ISSN: 2458 - 9217
12. Özer Özçelik, Nuri Uslu, 'Analysis of the Relationship Between Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation with the Var Model: The Case of Turkey (2007 - 2014)', Ekev Academy Journal Year: 21 Issue: 69
13. Özer Özçelik, Nuri Uslu 'Analysis of the Relationship Between Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation with the Var Model: The Case of Turkey (2007 - 2014)', Ekev Academy Journal Year: 21 Issue: 69 (Winter 2017)
14. Pesaran, H. M. (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435. Recep Tarı, Hakan Bakkal 'The Determinants of Unemployment in Turkey', 2017, KOSBED, 2017, 33: 1 – 18
15. Sekmen, Taner, Topuz, G. Seher, 'Inflation and Economic Growth: Threshold Value Analysis', Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Vol./Vol.: 19 - Issue/No: 2 (255-270)
16. Serhat Yüksel 'Causal Relationships Between Growth, Unemployment and Inflation in the Russian Economy', Financial Political & Economic Comments 2016 Vol: 53 Issue: 614
17. Süleyman Arif Turan 'Relations of Inflation and Economic Growth: Studies on Turkey', Master Thesis, 2010, Erzurum
18. Taban, Sami; (2011), Economic Growth, Concepts and Models, Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara.
19. Umut Üzar, Haydar Akyazı 'An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment at the Level of OECD Countries', C.Ü. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Vol 19, No 2, 2018
20. Uğur Korkut Pata, 'Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Tests of the Relationships Between Inflation, Savings and Economic Growth in Turkey', Journal of Finance, January-June 2018; 174: 92-111
21. Yüksel BİRİNCİ 'Inflation, Monetary Policy and Strategies', 1990,
22. Zeynep Köse 'The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation in the Period 2003-2014 in the Turkish Economy', Turkish Journal of Social Sciences Research /Journal of Turkish Social Sciences Research April 2016 Volume: 1 Issue: 1