AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Abstract

Through computation and the extension of the data set from 1987 to 2016, as well as the evaluation of economic changes prior to and after the 2001 crisis, this study attempts to analyze and report real business cycle facts of the Turkish economy. The results of real business cycle fact for real GDP, private consumption, export and import after 2001 crisis indicate that Turkish economy is performing better than prior to it due to structural change occurred. The 2001 crisis was known mostly to be the result of the combined effects of many populist and non-independent institutional policies, such as fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate policy, excessive debt and lack of competitiveness. Due to sound economic reforms implemented after the 2001 crisis, Turkish economy not only avoided the 2008 global financial crisis, but also had a strong and stable financial sector and institutions.

Keywords

• Turkish Economy
• Business Cycle
• Cyclical Fluctuation

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDEKİ YAPISAL DEĞİŞİM ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1987'den 2016'ya kadar olan veri setinin hesaplanması ve genişletilmesinin yanı sıra, 2001 krizi öncesi ve sonrası ekonomik değişimlerin değerlendirilmesi yoluyla, Türk ekonomisinin reel iş döngüsü gerçeklerini analiz etmeyi ve raporlamayı amaçlamıştır. 2001 krizi sonrası reel GSYİH, özel tüketim, ihracat ve ithalat için reel iş döngüsü gerçeğinin sonuçları, yapısal değişim nedeniyle Türk ekonomisinin öncesine göre daha iyi performansa sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. 2001 krizi çoğunlukla mali ve parasal politikalar, döviz kuru politikası, aşırı borçlanma ve rekabet eksikliği gibi birçok popülist ve bağımsız olmayan kurumlar tarafından yürütülen politikaların birleşik etkilerinin sonucu olarak bilinmektedir. 2001 krizinden sonra uygulanan sağlam ekonomik reformlar sayesinde, Türk ekonomisi sadece 2008 küresel mali krizini atlatmakla kalmamış, aynı zamanda güçlü ve istikrarlı bir mali sektöre ve kurumlara da sahip olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• İş Döngüsü
• Konjonktürel Dalgalanma

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