ASSESSING THE FLUCTUATIONS OF MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES: EVIDENCE FROM ALGERIA

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the origin of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables in Algeria , using time series data over the extended period from 1990 to 2016. The results of principal components analysis indicate that the years from 2002 to 2007 are characterized by an increase in RGDP , exchange rate and exports, this rise due to the improvement of the Algerian economy which hails from the evolution of oil prices, as well as the evolution of the unemployment rate was because of oil prices which have decreased between 1996 and 2000. So changes in the indicators of economic growth are caused by fluctuations in oil prices. And the Granger causality test proves that oil prices cause CPI, exports and unemployment rate. In this case, Algeria must activate the policies of economic diversification and structural transformation to be independent of hydrocarbons , in addition it has to create a sustainable and high growth rates.

Keywords

• macroeconomic indicators,oil prices,Algeria

Kaynakça

1. Abdoulkarim Esmaeili and ZainabShokoohi (2011) . Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis. Energy Policy , 39 , 1022–1025
2. Al Rasasi, M. and M. Yilmaz, (2016). The effects of oil shocks on Turkish macroeconomic aggregates. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3): 471-476
3. .Ayşen, E. and M. Mehmet, (2014). The effects of oil price on economic growth for Turkey. 01 September. 12th International Academic Conference, Prague, Selcuk University, Turkey. pp: 360-370.
4. BOUDIA Mounya, FAKHARI Farouk and ZEBIRI Noura (2017) . The current economic crisis in Algeria between the fluctuations of oil prices and the exploitation of the potential-faciities available for the realization of the economic take-off - analytical study. Journal of Economic & Financial Research , 4(2) , 282-904.
5. Brown, S. and M. Yücel (2002). “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Study.” the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 193-208.
6. Cologni, A., Manera, M.,( 2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Econ. 30 (3), 856–888.
7. Corden, W. M., and J. P. Neary (1982). “Booming Sector and De-Industrialization in a Small 00Open Economy.” Economic Journal, 92: 825-848.
8. Cunado, J., De Gracia, F.P., (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries. Time Horiz. Rev. Econ. Financ. 45 (1), 65–83.

9. Engle, R.F.,Granger,C.W.J.,(1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55,251–276.Erdoğan, M., K. İbrahim and G. Salih, (2016).
10. Transferıng marketable securıtıes account group of tucoa to opennıng fınancıal statements accordıng to new Turkısh trade code as of tfrs. Kastamonu Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 11.
11. Ftiti, Z., K. Guesmi, F. Teulon and S. Chouachi, (2016). Relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. Journal of Applied Business Research, 32(11): 11-22.
12. Hamdi, H., & Sbia, R. (2013). Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy. Economic Modelling, 35, 118-125.
13. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors Journal Of Economic Dynamics and Control (12) 231-254.
14. Khalid Ahmed , Niaz Ahmed Bhutto and Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro (2018) .Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region. Resources Policy, 0301-4207
15. Negi, P., (2015). Impact of oil price on economic growth: A study of bric nations. Indian Journal of Accounting, 47(1): 144-155.
16. Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer (2016) . The effects of fluctuations of oil price on economic growth of Libya . Energy Economics Letters, 3(2): 17-29*
17. Palgrave Macmillian (2007) . Applied Econometric . Revised edition . Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ; P281.
18. Saeed Moshiri (2014) . Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks in Oil-Exporting Countries; the Role of Institutions. The Canadian Economic Association conference held in Montreal in June. P4