THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM FOURIER TESTS

Öz

Governments aim to increase economic growth with the policies they implement for the development of the financial system in their countries. For this reason, the basic relationship between financial development and economic growth has been widely covered in the literature, especially since the 1980s. In this context, in this study, it is aimed to reveal the relationship between economic growth and financial development for Turkey by using the annual data set covering the period 1960-2017. For this purpose, analyzes were carried out using the data obtained from the official database of the World Bank and the gross domestic product (GDP) series and the ratio of assets of deposit banks to GDP (FD) series. First of all, the investigation of whether the variables contain a unit root was examined by Christopoulos and Leon-Ledesma (2010) Fourier unit root test. The long-term cointegration relationship for series with a stationary difference was examined with the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FADL) cointegration analysis, which was brought to the literature by Banerjee et al. (2017), and it was found that there was no long-term relationship between the variables. In order to reveal the causal relationship between the variables, the Fourier-based causality test proposed by Nazlıoglu et al. (2016) was applied. There is a one-way causality relationship between the variables and it has been determined that the financial development series is the cause of economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : Financial Development
• GDP
• Fourier Unit Root
• Fourier Cointegration
• Fourier Causality.

TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL GELİŞME ve EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: FOURİER TESTLERDEN KANITLAR

Öz

Hükümetler ülkelerindeki finans sisteminin gelişimi için uyguladıkları politikalar ile ekonomik büyümenin arttırılmasını hedeflemektedirler. Bu nedenle özellikle 1980’li yıllardan günümüze kadar finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki temel ilişki literatürde geniş bir yer almıştır. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada, 1960-2017 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veri seti kullanılarak Türkiye için ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişki ortaya çıkarılmak istenmektedir. Bu amaçla Dünya Bankası resmi veri tabanından elde edilen veriler ile gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYİH) serisi ile mevduat bankalarının varlıklarının GSYİH'ye oranı (FD) serisi kullanılarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Öncelikle değişkenlerin birim kök içerip içermediğinin araştırılması Christopoulos ve Leon-Ledesma (2010) Fourier birim kök sınaması ile incelenmiştir. Fark durağan bulunan seriler için uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Banerjee vd. (2017) tarafından literatüre kazandırılan Fourier Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış (FADL) eşbütünleşme analizi ile incelenmiş ve değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olmadığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi ortaya çıkarmak adına yine Fourier temelli Nazlıoğlu vd. (2016) tarafından önerilen nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcut olup ve finansal gelişme serisinin ekonomik büyümenin nedeni olduğu sonucu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme
• GSYİH
• Fourier Birim Kök
• Fourier Eşbütünleşme
• Fourier Nedensellik.

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