Geçiş Ülkelerinde Para Politikası Şoklarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 71 - 82, 30.06.2020

Nil Çağlar Bektaş M. Nihat Solakoğlu

Öz

Bu çalışmada para politikası şoklarının enflasyon üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada “geçiş ülkeleri” olarak adlandırılan Arnavutluk, Ermenistan, Azerbaycan, Belarus, Bosna Hersek, Gürcistan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Moldova, Rusya Federasyonu, Sırbistan, Tacikistan, Ukrayna olmak üzere 13 ülke irdelenmiştir. Analizde Ocak 2006 – Aralık 2018 aralığındaki aylık veriler alınmış olup M2 değeri (para arzı için), tüketici fiyat endeksi değişimleri (enflasyon için) verileri kullanılmıştır. Para politikası şokları ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişki ekonometrik model çerçevesinde ele alınmıştır. Zaman serisi yapısı ve regresyon modelinin kullanıldığı analiz neticesinde pozitif para şokları enflasyonu arttırıcı bir etkiye sahipken negatif şokların da enflasyon üzerinde negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Para Politikası, Asimetrik Etki, Pozitif ve Negatif Parasal Şok

The Asymmetric Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation For Transition Countries

Öz

The aim of this study is to determine the asymmetric effect of monetary policy shocks on inflation, In this study, 13 countries, Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Serbia, Tajikistan and Ukraine, which are called as “transition countries, were examined. Monthly data between January 2006 - December 2018 were taken and M2 value (for money supply), consumer price index changes (for inflation) data were used. The relationship between monetary policy shocks and inflation has been discussed within the framework of the econometric model. As a result of the analysis, positive money shocks have an increasing effect on inflation and negative shocks have a negative and statistically significant effect on inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Monetary Policy, Asymmetric Effect, Positive and Negative Shock

Kaynakça

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