Hanehalkı Tasarruflarının Belirleyicileri: Euro Bölgesi Analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 9 - 25, 30.06.2021

Gülçin Tapşın

Öz

Bir ekonominin uzun vadeli büyümesini besleyen yatırım kaynağı olarak tasarruflar, daha yüksek yaşam standartlarına ve daha istikrarlı bir ekonomik ortama zemin hazırlar. Yetersiz tasarruflar nedeniyle yatırımların sürekli artan dış borçla finanse edilmesi, ekonomileri sürdürülemez bir yola sürükleyerek yavaş bir büyüme patikasına sokar. Çalışmanın odak noktası, hanehalkı tasarruflarının makroekonomik belirleyicilerini parasal birlik perspektifinden analiz etmektir. Bu kapsamda, Euro Bölgesinde yeralan 17 ülkenin hanehalkı tasarruflarını belirleyen faktörler, 2000-2019 yılları için iki aşamalı Sistem-GMM yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analizden elde edilen bulgulara göre, kişi başı reel gelir, uzun vadeli faiz oranı, cari denge ve global finans krizi, net hanehalkı tasarrufları üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahipken, işsizlik oranı, Avrupa Para Birliğine üyelik, bütçe dengesindeki artış, vergi gelirleri ve büyümenin etkisi negatiftir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hanehalkı Tasarrufları, Parasal Birlik, Sistem GMM

Determinants of Household Savings: Euro Area Analysis

Öz

Savings as the investment source that feeds the long-term growth of an economy pave the way for a higher lifestyle and more stable economic environment. Financing of the investments with the increasing foreign debts because of insufficient savings leads the economies into an unsustainable and slow growth path. The main focus of the study is to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of household savings within the framework of monetary union. In this context, the factors that determine the household savings of 17 countries within Euro Zone were examined for the years 2000-2019 by means of System-GMM method. According to the findings of the analyses, real income per capita, long-term interest rate, current account balance and global financial crisis have positive effect on net household savings while the effect of unemployment rate, participation into European Monetary Union, increase in budget balance, tax incomes and growth is negative.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Household Savings, Monetary Union, System GMM

Kaynakça

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