Landslide susceptibility mapping using logistic statistical regression in Babaheydar Watershed, Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari Province, Iran

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 65 Sayı: 1, 30 - 40, 01.01.2015

Ebrahim Karimi Sangchini , Mohammad Reza Nowjavan Abdolhossein Arami

https://doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.52751

Öz

Landslide susceptibility mapping using logistic statistical regression in Babaheydar Watershed, Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari Province, Iran

Abstract: Landslides are amongst the most damaging natural hazards in mountainous regions. Every year, hundreds of people all over the world lose their lives in landslides; furthermore, there are large impacts on the local and global economy from these events. In this study, landslide hazard zonation in Babaheydar watershed using logistic regression was conducted to determine landslide hazard areas. At first, the landslide inventory map was prepared using aerial photograph interpretations and field surveys. The next step, ten landslide conditioning factors such as altitude, slope percentage, slope aspect, lithology, distance from faults, rivers, settlement and roads, land use, and precipitation were chosen as effective factors on landsliding in the study area. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility map was constructed using the logistic regression model in Geographic Information System (GIS). The ROC and Pseudo-R² indexes were used for model assessment. Results showed that the logistic regression model provided slightly high prediction accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps in the Babaheydar Watershed with ROC equal to 0.876. Furthermore, the results revealed that about 44% of the watershed areas were located in high and very high hazard classes. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps can be useful in appropriate watershed management practices and for sustainable development in the region. 

Keywords: Landslide zonation, multivariate statistical model, Babaheydar watershed, Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari province.

İran’ın Çaharmahal ve Bahtiyari Bölgesi’nde yer alan Baba Haydar Havzası’nda lojistik regresyon kullanılarak heyelan hassasiyeti haritasının çıkartılması

Özet: Toprak kaymaları, dağlık bölgelerdeki en zarar verici doğal felaketler arasında yer almaktadır. Her yıl, dünyanın dört bir yanında yüzlerce insan toprak kayması neticesinde ölüyor. Ayrıca, bu olayların yerel ve global ekonomi üzerinde de büyük etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, toprak kayması tehlikesine sahip bölgeleri tespit etmek üzere lojistik regresyon kullanılarak Baba Haydar Havzası’nda toprak kayması tehlikesi haritası çıkartılmıştır. İlk olarak, havadan çekilmiş fotoğraf yorumları ve saha incelemeleri kullanılarak toprak kayması envanter haritası hazırlanmıştır. Bir sonraki adımda rakım, eğim yüzdesi, eğim açısı, litoloji, fay hatlarına olan mesafe, nehirler, yerleşim yerleri ve yollar, arazi kullanımı ve yağış miktarı olmak üzere toprak kaymasına neden olabilecek on adet faktör, çalışma bölgesinde toprak kaymasında etkin faktörler olarak seçilmiştir. Ardından, Coğrafi Bilgi Sisteminde (GIS) lojistik regresyon modeli kullanılarak toprak kayması hassasiyeti haritası oluşturulmuştur. Model değerlendirmesi için ROC ve Pseudo-R2 endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, lojistik regresyon modelinin, 0.876’lık ROC değeri ile birlikte Baba Haydar Havzası’nda toprak kayması hassasiyet haritasının yüksek bir tahmin doğruluğu sağladığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca sonuçlar, havza bölgelerinin yaklaşık %44’ünün yüksek ve son derece tehlikeli sınıflarda yer aldığını ortaya çıkartmıştır. Sonuç olarak elde edilen toprak kayması hassasiyeti haritaları, uygun havza yönetimi uygulamalarında ve bölgenin sürdürülebilir bir şekilde geliştirilmesinde faydalı olabilir.

Anahtar kelimeler: Heyelan bölgelendirme, çok değişkenli istatistiksel model, Baba Haydar havzası, Çaharmahal ve Bahtiyari bölgesi.

 

Received: 30 June 2014 - Accepted: 20 August 2014

 

To cite this article: Sangchini, E.K., Nowjavan, M.R., Arami, A., 2015. Landslide susceptibility mapping using logistic statistical regression in Babaheydar Watershed, Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari Province, Iran. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 65(1): 30-40. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.52751

Anahtar Kelimeler

Landslide zonation, multivariate statistical model, Babaheydar watershed, Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari province

İran’ın Çaharmahal ve Bahtiyari Bölgesi’nde yer alan Baba Haydar Havzası’nda lojistik regresyon kullanılarak heyelan hassasiyeti haritasının çıkartılması

Öz

Toprak kaymaları, dağlık bölgelerdeki en zarar verici doğal felaketler arasında yer almaktadır. Her yıl,
dünyanın dört bir yanında yüzlerce insan toprak kayması neticesinde ölüyor. Ayrıca, bu olayların yerel ve global
ekonomi üzerinde de büyük etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, toprak kayması tehlikesine sahip bölgeleri tespit
etmek üzere lojistik regresyon kullanılarak Baba Haydar Havzası’nda toprak kayması tehlikesi haritası çıkartılmıştır.
İlk olarak, havadan çekilmiş fotoğraf yorumları ve saha incelemeleri kullanılarak toprak kayması envanter haritası
hazırlanmıştır. Bir sonraki adımda rakım, eğim yüzdesi, eğim açısı, litoloji, fay hatlarına olan mesafe, nehirler,
yerleşim yerleri ve yollar, arazi kullanımı ve yağış miktarı olmak üzere toprak kaymasına neden olabilecek on adet
faktör, çalışma bölgesinde toprak kaymasında etkin faktörler olarak seçilmiştir. Ardından, Coğrafi Bilgi Sisteminde
(GIS) lojistik regresyon modeli kullanılarak toprak kayması hassasiyeti haritası oluşturulmuştur. Model
değerlendirmesi için ROC ve Pseudo-R2 endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, lojistik regresyon modelinin, 0.876’lık
ROC değeri ile birlikte Baba Haydar Havzası’nda toprak kayması hassasiyet haritasının yüksek bir tahmin doğruluğu
sağladığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca sonuçlar, havza bölgelerinin yaklaşık %44’ünün yüksek ve son derece tehlikeli
sınıflarda yer aldığını ortaya çıkartmıştır. Sonuç olarak elde edilen toprak kayması hassasiyeti haritaları, uygun havza
yönetimi uygulamalarında ve bölgenin sürdürülebilir bir şekilde geliştirilmesinde faydalı olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Heyelan bölgelendirme, çok değişkenli istatistiksel model, Baba Haydar havzası, Çaharmahal ve Bahtiyari bölgesi

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