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Comparison of Mann-Kendall Trend Test and Innovative Methods: Beşkonak Monthly Flow Data Example

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 1 - 12, 30.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1487245

Öz

Today, there are many methods available to determine trends with different data sets. In this study, a comparison was made between Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis, which is frequently used in trend analysis studies, and Innovative Trend Analysis (YEÇ), which has become popular in recent years, and Enhanced Visualization for Innovative Trend Analysis (GG-YEÇ). Additionally, the Wilcoxon Trend Test in Combination with Scatter Diagram (SDKWTT), which has been proposed in recent years, is included in this comparison. For this purpose, 74-year monthly flow data for the water years 1942–2015, taken from the Beşkonak flow observation station of the Köprüçay River in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey, was used. The trends of each month and annual average values were compared. Thus, a comparison of 13 different trend tests was made. However, when the homogeneity test was performed, it was determined that the data for August and October were not homogeneous within the 95% confidence interval, and the data for these months were not used in comparison. As a result of the study, it was determined that there were no major differences between the methods; all tests were appropriate to use, but using them together increased reliability.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, R. (2024 a). A comparison of the performance of different innovative trend assessment approaches for air temperature and precipitation data: an application to Elazığ Province (Turkey). Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(3), 1417–1437. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.685
  • Acar, R. (2024 b). Susurluk Havzası Akımlarının Trend Analiz Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Değerlendirilmesi. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering, 3(1), 65–74. https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090
  • Adombi, A. V. D. P., Chesnaux, R., & Boucher, M. A. (2024). Toward a methodology to explore historical groundwater level trends and their origin: the case of Quebec, Canada. Environmental Earth Sciences, 83(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11466-9
  • Buyukyildiz, M. (2023). Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates–Tigris River Basin of Türkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches. Applied Water Science, 13(2), 38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-022-01845-7
  • Dabanlı, S. (2019). A Climate Change Impact: Variation In Precipitation Patterns, And Increased Drought Risk In Turkey. Sakarya University Journal of Science, 23(2), 193–202. https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.467119
  • Fattah, M. A., Hasan, M. M., Dola, I. A., Morshed, S. R., Chakraborty, T., Kafy, A. A., Shohan, A. A. A. (2024). Implications of rainfall variability on groundwater recharge and sustainable management in South Asian capitals: An in-depth analysis using Mann Kendall tests, continuous wavelet coherence, and innovative trend analysis. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 24, 101060. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2023.101060
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. Journal of Hydrology, 566, 685–704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.034
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. Journal of Hydrology, 566, 685–704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.034
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2020). Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA. Journal of Hydrology, 584, 124674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124674
  • Jiang, S., Shang, J., Guo, J., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Multi-Strategy Improved Flamingo Search Algorithm for Global Optimization. Applied Sciences, 13(9), 5612. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13095612
  • Koycegiz, C., & Buyukyildiz, M. (2022). Investigation of precipitation and extreme indices spatiotemporal variability in Seyhan Basin, Turkey. Water Supply, 22(12), 8603–8624. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2022.391
  • Saplioglu, K., Kilit, M., & Şenel, F. A. (2019). Investigation of changes in climate data using checkerboard: the case of Akarçay basin. Applied Ecology & Environmental Research, 17(2). http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1702_23732384
  • Suryanto, J., & Krisbiyantoro, J. (2018). Trend Analysis of Rainfall Data in Magelang District Using Mann-Kendall Test and Modification Mann-Kendall Variation. AGRIFOR, 17(2), 293. https://doi.org/10.31293/af.v17i2.3616
  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000556
  • Şen, Z. (2014). Trend Identification Simulation and Application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635–642. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000811
  • Şen, Z., & Şişman, E. (2023). Risk attachment Sen’s Slope calculation in hydrometeorological trend analysis. Natural Hazards, 120(4), 3239–3252. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06329-8

Mann-Kendall Trend Testi ile Yenilikçi Yöntemlerin Kıyaslanması: Beşkonak Aylık Akım Verileri Örneği

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 1 - 12, 30.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1487245

Öz

Günümüzde farklı veri setleri ile trendlerin belirlenmesi için pek çok yöntem mevcuttur. Bu çalışmada trend analizi çalışmalarında sıklıkla kullanılan Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analizi ile son yıllarda popüler hale gelmiş olan Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi (YEÇ), Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi için Geliştirilmiş Görselleştirme (GG-YEÇ) kıyaslaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca son yıllarda önerilen Saçılım Diyagramı ile Kombinasyonlu Wilcoxon Trend Testide (SDKWTT) bu karşılaştırmaya dahil edilmiştir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’nin Akdeniz Bölgesinde yer alan Köprüçay nehrine ait Beşkonak akım gözlem istasyonundan alınan 1942-2015 su yıllarına ait 74 yıllık aylık akım verisi kullanılmıştır. Her ay kendi içinde ve yıllık ortalama değerlerin trendleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu nedenle 13 farklı trend testinin kıyaslaması yapılmıştır. Ancak homojenlik testi yapıldığında Ağustos ve Ekim ayları verilerinin % 95güven aralığında homojen olmadığı tespit edilmiş ve bu aylara ait veriler kıyaslamada kullanılmamıştır. Çalışma sonucunda yöntemler arasında çok büyük farklar olmadığı testlerin tamamının kullanımının uygun olduğu, ancak birlikte kullanılmalarının güvenilirliği arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, R. (2024 a). A comparison of the performance of different innovative trend assessment approaches for air temperature and precipitation data: an application to Elazığ Province (Turkey). Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(3), 1417–1437. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.685
  • Acar, R. (2024 b). Susurluk Havzası Akımlarının Trend Analiz Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Değerlendirilmesi. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering, 3(1), 65–74. https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090
  • Adombi, A. V. D. P., Chesnaux, R., & Boucher, M. A. (2024). Toward a methodology to explore historical groundwater level trends and their origin: the case of Quebec, Canada. Environmental Earth Sciences, 83(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11466-9
  • Buyukyildiz, M. (2023). Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates–Tigris River Basin of Türkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches. Applied Water Science, 13(2), 38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-022-01845-7
  • Dabanlı, S. (2019). A Climate Change Impact: Variation In Precipitation Patterns, And Increased Drought Risk In Turkey. Sakarya University Journal of Science, 23(2), 193–202. https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.467119
  • Fattah, M. A., Hasan, M. M., Dola, I. A., Morshed, S. R., Chakraborty, T., Kafy, A. A., Shohan, A. A. A. (2024). Implications of rainfall variability on groundwater recharge and sustainable management in South Asian capitals: An in-depth analysis using Mann Kendall tests, continuous wavelet coherence, and innovative trend analysis. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 24, 101060. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2023.101060
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. Journal of Hydrology, 566, 685–704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.034
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. Journal of Hydrology, 566, 685–704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.034
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2020). Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA. Journal of Hydrology, 584, 124674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124674
  • Jiang, S., Shang, J., Guo, J., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Multi-Strategy Improved Flamingo Search Algorithm for Global Optimization. Applied Sciences, 13(9), 5612. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13095612
  • Koycegiz, C., & Buyukyildiz, M. (2022). Investigation of precipitation and extreme indices spatiotemporal variability in Seyhan Basin, Turkey. Water Supply, 22(12), 8603–8624. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2022.391
  • Saplioglu, K., Kilit, M., & Şenel, F. A. (2019). Investigation of changes in climate data using checkerboard: the case of Akarçay basin. Applied Ecology & Environmental Research, 17(2). http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1702_23732384
  • Suryanto, J., & Krisbiyantoro, J. (2018). Trend Analysis of Rainfall Data in Magelang District Using Mann-Kendall Test and Modification Mann-Kendall Variation. AGRIFOR, 17(2), 293. https://doi.org/10.31293/af.v17i2.3616
  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000556
  • Şen, Z. (2014). Trend Identification Simulation and Application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635–642. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000811
  • Şen, Z., & Şişman, E. (2023). Risk attachment Sen’s Slope calculation in hydrometeorological trend analysis. Natural Hazards, 120(4), 3239–3252. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06329-8
Toplam 16 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Su Kaynakları ve Su Yapıları
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Kemal Saplıoğlu 0000-0003-0016-8690

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 28 Haziran 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 20 Mayıs 2024
Kabul Tarihi 1 Haziran 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Saplıoğlu, K. (2024). Mann-Kendall Trend Testi ile Yenilikçi Yöntemlerin Kıyaslanması: Beşkonak Aylık Akım Verileri Örneği. Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1487245