Determining The Relationship Between Growth, Export and FDI in Selected OIC Countries

Öz

Policymakers continue to focus primarily on economic growth, which is regarded as a key means of enhancing the economic well-being of nations. The roles of exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the growth strategies of emerging economies have long been subjects of scholarly debate. Accordingly, the export-led growth and FDI-led growth hypotheses have been extensively examined across different countries and time periods. This study investigates a group of countries that are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and classified within the Next Eleven (N-11), namely Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Türkiye. Iran is excluded from the analysis due to data limitations. The study covers the period from 1990 to 2023 and employs a time-series econometric framework. Both the standard ARDL bounds testing approach and the bootstrap ARDL method are used to examine long-run cointegration relationships among economic growth, exports, and FDI. In addition, the Toda–Yamamoto and Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality tests are applied to analyze short-run causal linkages. The standard ARDL bounds tests indicate the presence of a greater number of long-run relationships; however, the bootstrap ARDL results identify cointegration only in models where economic growth is the dependent variable for Bangladesh and where FDI is the dependent variable for Egypt. Given that the bootstrap ARDL approach is considered more reliable, these findings suggest that the long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, exports, and FDI is more complex than previously assumed. Furthermore, the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test reveals a larger number of causal linkages compared to the standard approach, reflecting its ability to account for structural breaks. Overall, among the countries examined, only the results for Bangladesh provide full support for the export-led growth hypothesis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Export
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Bootstrap ARDL

Seçilmiş İİT Ülkelerinde Büyüme, İhracat ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Arasındaki İlişkinin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme toplumların ekonomik refahının arttırılması adına politika yapıcıları için önemli bir gündem maddesidir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin büyüme politikalarına, ihracatın ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların etkisi uzun süredir tartışılmaktadır. İhracata dayalı büyüme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara dayalı büyüme tezleri farklı ülkeler için değişik zaman dilimleri arasında çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada İslam İşbirliği Teşkilatına üye ve Next 11 ülkeleri arasında gösterilen Bangladeş, Endonezya, Mısır, Nijerya, Pakistan ve Türkiye zaman serisi yöntemiyle ele alınmıştır. İran da bu ülke grubuna dahil olmakla birlikte veri bütünlüğüne sahip olmadığı için çalışmaya dahil edilmemiştir. Çalışmanın zaman aralığı ise 1990 yılından 2023 yılına kadardır. Bootstrap ARDL ve standart ARDL sınır testleri uygulanarak uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Ayrıca Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testleriyle kısa dönemli ilişkilere bakılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre standart ARDL sınır testleri değişkenler arasında daha fazla uzun dönemli ilişki bulurken, bootstrap ARDL metodu Bangladeş için büyüme verisi ve Mısır için doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar verisinin bağımlı değişken olduğu modellerde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu çıkarmıştır. Bootstrap ARDL modelinin daha güvenilir bir yöntem olması nedeniyle büyüme, ihracat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkilerin uzun dönem dengesinin sanılandan daha karmaşık olduğu söylenebilir. Nedensellik ilişkilerinde ise Fourier Toda-Yamamoto testi yapısal kırılmaları dikkate almasından ötürü daha fazla ilişki tespit etmiştir. Sonuç olarak söz konusu ülkeler arasında sadece Bangladeş’in bulgularının tam manasıyla ihracata dayalı büyüme tezlerini desteklediği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• İhracat
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• Bootstrap ARDL

Kaynakça

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