Efta Ülkelerinde Demokrasi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Demokrasi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 19. yüzyıldan beri hem sosyal hem de siyaset bilimcilerin incelediği bir konudur. Bu ilişkinin ilk başladığı dönemlerde siyaset bilimciler, kapitalist gelişmenin bir sonucu olarak demokrasinin geleceğine inanmışlardır. Zamanla bu inanç yerini şüpheye bırakmıştır. İktisatçılar ampirik çalışmalarla demokrasi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünü belirlemeye çalışmışlardır. Bu çalışmada da EIU- Economist Intelligence Unit’e göre dünyada demokrasi açısından üst sıralarda yer alan verisine ulaşılamayan Lihtenştayn dışındaki EFTA ülkeleri (Norveç, İsviçre ve İzlanda) analiz edilmiştir. Analizde EIU veritabanından demokrasi indeksi ve Dünya Bankası veritabanından da yıllık GSYİH büyüme oranları değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada demokrasinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğu fakat demokrasi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında Granger nedenselliğin olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme,Demokrasi İndeksi,Granger Nedensellik Analizi

The Interaction Between Democracy And Economic Growth In Efta Countries

Öz

The relationship between democracy and economic growth has been a subject that has been studied by both social and political scientists since the 19th century. In the early days of this relationship, political scientists believed in the future of democracy as a consequence of capitalist development. Over time, this belief has left its place in doubt. Economists have tried to determine the direction of causality between democracy and economic growth through empirical studies. This study also analyzed the EFTA countries outside of Liechtenstein (Norway, Switzerland and Iceland), which can not be reached in terms of democracy in the world according to the EIU-Economist Intelligence Unit. In the analysis, the demographic index from the EIU database and the annual GDP growth rates from the World Bank database were used as variables. Democracy in work has a positive effect on economic growth, but it is the result of the absence of Granger causality between democracy and economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth,Democracy Index,Granger Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Acaravcı, A. and Erdoğan, S. (2015) "Long-Term and Causal Relations Between Democracy, Real Income and Outward Openness in Turkey". Mustafa Kemal University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 12 (31), 358-370.
2. Alena, A. and Perotti, R. (1994): '' The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature '', The World Bank Economic Rewiew, 8 (3), pp: 351-371
3. Banerjee, A., J. Dolado, J. Galbraith, D.F. Hendry. (1993). Cointegration, Error Correction and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
4. Barro, R.J. (1996). Democracy and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 1-27.
5. Bozkurt, H. (2007). Time Series Analysis. Bursa: Ekin Publishing House.
6. Butkiewicz, J. L. and Yanikkaya, H. (2006). "Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: The Rule of Law of Democratic Institutions, or Both?" Economic Modeling, 23, 648-661.
7. De Haan, J. and Siermann, C.L.J. (1995). "New Evidence on the Relationship Between Democracy and Economic Growth". Public Choice, 86, 175-198.
8. Dollar, D. and Kraay, A. (2003). "Institutions, Trade and Growth". Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 133-162.

9. Doucoligaos, H. and Ulubasoglu, M.A. (2008). "Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta Analysis". American Journal of Political Science, 52 (1), 61-83.
10. Erdoğan, M. (1998) Liberal Society Liberal Politics, Ankara: Political Bookstore.
11. Fielding, D., (2003), "Modeling Political Instability and Economic Performance: Israel Investment during the" Intifada ", London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70 (277), pages 159-186, February.
12. Freng, Y. (1997). "Democracy, Political Stability and Economic Growth". British Journal of Political Science, 27 (3), 391-418.
13. Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
14. Haggard, S. and Tiede, L. (2011). "The Rule of Law and Economic Growth: Where Are We?". World Development, 39 (5), 673-685.
15. HDR (UNDP), (2002), Human Development Report 2002, Page: 57
16. Leblang, D.A. (1996). "Property Rights, Democracy and Growth". Political Research Quarterly, 49, 5-26.
17. Olson, M. (1996) .Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Big Bills Left on The Sidewalk: Why Some Nations are Rich, and Others Poor. Journal of Economic Perspectives 10 (2), 3-24.
18. Rodrik, D. (2000). "Institutions for High Quality Growth: What they are and How to acquire them?". NBER Working Paper Series No: 7540. http://www.nber.org/papers/w7540 Access Date (30.07.2015).
19. Tavares J. and Wacziarg R. (2001). How Democracy Affects Growth. European Economic Review, 45, 1341-1373.
20. Tavares, J. and Wacziarg, R., (2001), "How Democracy Affects Growth", European Economic Review, 45, pp.
21. Yay, G.G. (2002). A Test on Economic Development Democracy Relation. Istanbul University Faculty of Economics Journal, 52 (1), 27-54.