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EXPORTS - GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TURKEY: An Empirical Analysis

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 154 - 165, 28.12.2020

Öz

Turkey abandoned the import substitution industrialization strategy and adopted export – led industrialization strategy in the context of the political decisions taken on January 24, 1980 and entered into a structural transformation. In the last four decades, there have been significant changes in the economy, while some of the economic targets have been achieved within the framework of the January 24 decisions, some have not yet been achieved.
In this study, the validity of export-led growth model and / or the degree of success are tested in the context of the Turkish economy. For this purpose, in addition to conventional causality analysis, recently developed time series analysis methods are used. These are bootstrap based Hacker and Hatemi J causality test, Hatemi J - Roca asymmetric causality test, frequency domain causality test developed by Breitung and Candelon and Bacılar et al. sliding windows causality test methods. The results indicate that bi-directional causality between exports and growth in the Turkish economy is valid.

Kaynakça

  • Abdulnasser, H ve I. Manuchehr, (2000). Time Series Evidence for Balassa’s Export-Led Growth Hypothesis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9:355-365.
  • Alıcı, A.A ve Ucal, M. Ş. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis. European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference, (September), Madrid.
  • Alimi, S. R. ve Muse, B.O. (2013), Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria, British Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, Vol. 3, Isuue. 2, pp. 89-100.
  • Aytaç, A. (2017). Ekonomik Büyüme – İhracat İlişkisi: 2001-2016 Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, 6 (4) , 214-222.
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5, 181-9.
  • Balcılar, M., Özdemir, Z. A., ve Arslantürk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
  • Bhagwati, J.N. (1988). Protectionism, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Biyase, M. ve Zwane, T. (2011). An Export-Led Growth (ELG) Paradigm in Africa: Panel Data Approach. ESSA 2011 Biennial Conference of the Economic Society of South Africa, 5-7 September 2011.
  • Breitung, J. ve Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short-and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363-378.
  • Doğanlar, M ve M. Fisunoğlu. (1999). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Countries. Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 10(11):3-11.
  • Dickey, David and Wayne Fuller. 1979. Distribution Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, ss:427- 431.
  • Dickey, D. ve Wayne F. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, ss:1057-72.
  • Durmuş, A. (2007). Türkiye’de 1946’dan 2001 Yılına Kadar Uygulanmış Olan İstikrar Programlarının Değerlendirilmesi. Maltepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans tezi.
  • Emery, R.F., (1967), The Relations of Exports and Economic Growth. Kyklos, 20 (2), 479-86.
  • Esfahani, H.S. (1991). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries, Journal of Development Economics, 35(1):93-116.
  • Hacker, S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2005). A test for multivariate ARCH effects. Applied Economics Letters, 12 (7), 411-417.
  • Hacker, S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006). “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Based on Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application” Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500
  • Hatemi-J, A. ve Roca, E. (2014). BRICs and PIGS in the presence of Uncle Sam and big brothers: Who drive who? Evidence based on asymmetric causality tests. Discussion Papers in Accounting finance:201401, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
  • Karluk, R. (2010). Turgut Özal’ın Ekonomi Politikaları Kapsamında Krizlere Karşı Uygulamaya Koyduğu Ekonomi Politikaları. Turgut Özal Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Siyaset Kongresi – I, 15-16 Nisan, Malatya.
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S. ve Şentürk, M. (2015). Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 4 (3), 117 – 129.
  • Köse, S. (2002). 24 Ocak 1980 ve 5 Nisan 1994 İstikrar Programlarının Karşılaştırılması. Planlama Dergisi, DPT’nin Kuruluşunun 42. Yılı Özel Sayı, 119 – 128.
  • MacKinnon, J. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, ss:601–618.
  • Marin, D. (1992) Is the export-led hypothesis valid for industrialised countries?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 678-688.
  • Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for the Developing Countries? A Case Study for Costa Rica. Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities, Study Series Number 7, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Michaely, M. (1977), Exports and growth: an empirical investigation, Journal of Economic Development, 4: 49-53.
  • Özmen, A., Özer M. ve Türkyılmaz, S. (1999). Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğe İlişkin Bir Uygulama Denemesi. Orhan Oğuz’a Armağan, Marmara Üniversitesi Yayını, No. 640:379-392.
  • Shan, L. H. ve Jusoh, Z. (2012). Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Malaysia?. Statistics Malaysia Journal of the Department of Statistics, Vol. 2, pp. 1-14.
  • Taban, S. ve Aktar, İ. (2008). An Empırıcal Examınatıon Of The Export-Led Growth Hypothesıs In Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3 (11), 1535 – 1551.
  • Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Zeren, F. ve SAVRUL, B.K. (2013), Revised Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Selected European Countries: A Panel Hidden Cointegration Approach, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, Sayı. 18, ss. 134-151.

TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 154 - 165, 28.12.2020

Öz

Pek çok ülke gibi Türkiye’de de 24 Ocak 1980 tarihinde alınan karar ile ithal ikameci sanayileşme stratejisi terk edilerek, ihracata dayalı sanayileşme stratejisi benimsenmiş ve yapısal bir dönüşüm içerisine girilmiştir. Geçen kırk yıllık dönemde ekonomik yapıda önemli değişimler olmuş, iktisadi yapıda 24 Ocak kararları çerçevesinde ekonomik hedeflerden bazılarına ulaşılırken, bazılarına da henüz ulaşılamamıştır.
Bu çalışmada ihracata dayalı büyüme modelinin geçerliliği ve başarı derecesi ile Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olup olmadığı test edilmektedir. Bu amaçla konvansiyonel nedensellik analizlerinin yanında son dönemde geliştirilen zaman serisi analiz metotları kullanılmaktadır. Bunlar; bootstrapa dayalı Hacker ve Hatemi J. Nedensellik Testi, Hatemi J. – Roca Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi, Breitung ve Candelon tarafından geliştirilen Frekans Alanı Nedensellik Testi ve Bacılar vd. tarafından geliştirilen Kayan Pencereler Nedensellik Testidir. Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, Türkiye ekonomisinde ihracat ve büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abdulnasser, H ve I. Manuchehr, (2000). Time Series Evidence for Balassa’s Export-Led Growth Hypothesis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9:355-365.
  • Alıcı, A.A ve Ucal, M. Ş. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis. European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference, (September), Madrid.
  • Alimi, S. R. ve Muse, B.O. (2013), Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria, British Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, Vol. 3, Isuue. 2, pp. 89-100.
  • Aytaç, A. (2017). Ekonomik Büyüme – İhracat İlişkisi: 2001-2016 Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, 6 (4) , 214-222.
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5, 181-9.
  • Balcılar, M., Özdemir, Z. A., ve Arslantürk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
  • Bhagwati, J.N. (1988). Protectionism, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Biyase, M. ve Zwane, T. (2011). An Export-Led Growth (ELG) Paradigm in Africa: Panel Data Approach. ESSA 2011 Biennial Conference of the Economic Society of South Africa, 5-7 September 2011.
  • Breitung, J. ve Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short-and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363-378.
  • Doğanlar, M ve M. Fisunoğlu. (1999). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Countries. Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 10(11):3-11.
  • Dickey, David and Wayne Fuller. 1979. Distribution Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, ss:427- 431.
  • Dickey, D. ve Wayne F. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, ss:1057-72.
  • Durmuş, A. (2007). Türkiye’de 1946’dan 2001 Yılına Kadar Uygulanmış Olan İstikrar Programlarının Değerlendirilmesi. Maltepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans tezi.
  • Emery, R.F., (1967), The Relations of Exports and Economic Growth. Kyklos, 20 (2), 479-86.
  • Esfahani, H.S. (1991). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries, Journal of Development Economics, 35(1):93-116.
  • Hacker, S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2005). A test for multivariate ARCH effects. Applied Economics Letters, 12 (7), 411-417.
  • Hacker, S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006). “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Based on Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application” Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500
  • Hatemi-J, A. ve Roca, E. (2014). BRICs and PIGS in the presence of Uncle Sam and big brothers: Who drive who? Evidence based on asymmetric causality tests. Discussion Papers in Accounting finance:201401, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
  • Karluk, R. (2010). Turgut Özal’ın Ekonomi Politikaları Kapsamında Krizlere Karşı Uygulamaya Koyduğu Ekonomi Politikaları. Turgut Özal Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Siyaset Kongresi – I, 15-16 Nisan, Malatya.
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S. ve Şentürk, M. (2015). Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 4 (3), 117 – 129.
  • Köse, S. (2002). 24 Ocak 1980 ve 5 Nisan 1994 İstikrar Programlarının Karşılaştırılması. Planlama Dergisi, DPT’nin Kuruluşunun 42. Yılı Özel Sayı, 119 – 128.
  • MacKinnon, J. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, ss:601–618.
  • Marin, D. (1992) Is the export-led hypothesis valid for industrialised countries?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 678-688.
  • Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for the Developing Countries? A Case Study for Costa Rica. Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities, Study Series Number 7, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Michaely, M. (1977), Exports and growth: an empirical investigation, Journal of Economic Development, 4: 49-53.
  • Özmen, A., Özer M. ve Türkyılmaz, S. (1999). Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğe İlişkin Bir Uygulama Denemesi. Orhan Oğuz’a Armağan, Marmara Üniversitesi Yayını, No. 640:379-392.
  • Shan, L. H. ve Jusoh, Z. (2012). Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Malaysia?. Statistics Malaysia Journal of the Department of Statistics, Vol. 2, pp. 1-14.
  • Taban, S. ve Aktar, İ. (2008). An Empırıcal Examınatıon Of The Export-Led Growth Hypothesıs In Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3 (11), 1535 – 1551.
  • Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Zeren, F. ve SAVRUL, B.K. (2013), Revised Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Selected European Countries: A Panel Hidden Cointegration Approach, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, Sayı. 18, ss. 134-151.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Uğur Adıgüzel 0000-0003-1415-4273

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Aralık 2020
Kabul Tarihi 28 Aralık 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Adıgüzel, U. (2020). TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, 8(2), 154-165.
AMA Adıgüzel U. TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives. Aralık 2020;8(2):154-165.
Chicago Adıgüzel, Uğur. “TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ”. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives 8, sy. 2 (Aralık 2020): 154-65.
EndNote Adıgüzel U (01 Aralık 2020) TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives 8 2 154–165.
IEEE U. Adıgüzel, “TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ”, Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, c. 8, sy. 2, ss. 154–165, 2020.
ISNAD Adıgüzel, Uğur. “TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ”. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives 8/2 (Aralık 2020), 154-165.
JAMA Adıgüzel U. TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives. 2020;8:154–165.
MLA Adıgüzel, Uğur. “TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ”. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, c. 8, sy. 2, 2020, ss. 154-65.
Vancouver Adıgüzel U. TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT - BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives. 2020;8(2):154-65.