Model for Retail Price Forecast of Thailand Rice In Plateau State Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract — In this paper, monthly retail prices of imported Thailand rice in Plateau State are analyzed and a model is proposed. Data were collected from major warehouses of businessmen in Plateau State capital and based on the observed pattern in the raw data, time series analysis was employed. Particularly, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is used on the data which covered a period of 132 months (January 2007- December 2017). The results from SARIMA (1, 1, 0)(0,1,1) show Lying –Box Q statistics value of 23.265 with p value of 0.107 and stationary R-squared value of 0.717 at 95% confidence bound which are all indicative of adequate fitted model for forecast. Hence the developed model can be used to predict monthly retail prices of Thailand rice in Plateau State Nigeria to aid government policy and enable adequate planning for future changes in price of rice.

Keywords

• model
• rice
• retail
• price
• forecast

Kaynakça

1. K. Gyimah-Brempong, M. Johnson and H. Takeshima, The Nigerian rice economy: Policy options for transforming production, marketing and trade, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, 2016. H. Takeshima and O. Bakare, Production systems: biophysical and economic environment and constraints. In: Gyimah - Brempong, K., Johnson,M., Takeshima, H. (Eds.), The Nigerian Rice Economy; Policy Options for Transforming Production, Marketing and Trade. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2016.
2. M. Johnson, H. Takeshima, K. Gyimah-Brempong, O. Kuku-Shittu, X. Diao, P. Dorosh, M. Malek, J. Koo, A. Pradesha and A. Ajibola, Policy options for accelerated growth and competitiveness of the domestic rice economy in Nigeria. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2013.
3. K. Aoki, K. Akai and K. Ujiie, A choice experiment to compare preferences for rice in Thailand and Japan: the impact of origin, sustainability and taste, Food Qual. Prefer., 56 2017, 274–284.
4. M. Demont, and M. Ndour, Upgrading rice value chains: experimental evidence from 11 African Markets, Glob. Food Secur., 5 2015, 70–76.
5. J. Basorun, Empirical analysis of association of rice marketing factors in Igbemo region, Nigeria, Int. J. Bus. Soc. Sci., 3(2) 2012, 296–306.
6. K. Emumejaye, Heavy and trace elements in some brands of rice consumed in Delta State, Nigeria, IOSRJ. Appl. Phys., 6(2) 2014, 1–5.
7. J. Ezirigwe, Much Ado about food safety regulation in Nigeria, J. Sustain. Develop. Law Policy, 9(1) 2018, 109–132.
8. H.H. Jensen and J. Zhou, Food safety regulation and private standards in China. In: Hammoudi, A., Grazia,C., Surry,Y., Traversac,J.B. (Eds.), FoodSafety, Market Organization, Trade and Development. Springer, Cham, 2015.

9. M. Johnson and A. Ajibola, Post-harvest processing, marketing and competitiveness of domestic rice. In: Gyimah-Brempong, K., Johnson, M.,Takeshima,H.,Gyimah-Brempong, K., Johnson, M., Takeshima, H. (Eds.), The Nigerian rice economy : Policy options for transforming production, marketing and trade. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, 2016.
10. M. Nguyen, M. Demont, E. Vanloo, A. deGuia, P. Rutsaert, T. Huutuan and W. Verbeke, What is the value of sustainably-produced rice? Consumer evidence from experimental auctions in Vietnam. Food Policy, 79, 2018, 283–296.
11. R. Oginyi, O. Mbam, C. Abojei and O. James, Assessment of occupational health hazard and the use of safety measures among rice mill workers in Ebonyi state, Nigeria, World Appl . Sci. J., 35 (7) 2017, 1133–1141.
12. D. Ray, N. Mueller, P. West and J. Foley, Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050. PLoSOne 8(6) 2013, e66428.
13. M.O. Thomas, Short Term Forecasting, an introduction the Box Jenkins Approach, John Wiley and Sons, 1983.
14. G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins and G. C Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. John Wiley & Sons Inc., San Francisco, 2013.
15. J. D. Cryer and K. –S. Chan, Time Series Analysis: with Applications in R. Springer, New York, 2008.