A Theoretical and Conceptual Perspective on Macroeconomic Uncertainty in the Framework of Coronomic Crisis

Öz

Although the literature on research examining the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic has developed rapidly, quantitative evidence for the effects of uncertainty on economic activity is still limited. The main purpose of this study is to examine the current literature by considering macroeconomic uncertainty in the context of Covid-19 and to synthesize the findings from the studies. Since the pandemic is still an ongoing process, the literature is growing rapidly, and therefore, it is hoped that it will facilitate studies investigating the links of Covid-19 with the economy by examining and synthesizing the main findings of the studies. The general scope of the study is to define the theoretical and conceptual framework for uncertainty, to examine the empirical literature before and after Covid-19 on the measurement of macroeconomic uncertainty as a qualitative research. According to the research results in the relevant literature, there is an expectation that economic units adopt a "wait and see" attitude, as the pandemic reduces confidence in economic activity and markets. The uncertainty created by Covid-19 significantly affects the economy and monetary policy management through various macroeconomic channels. It has been revealed that increasing uncertainty leads to permanent decreases in employment, price instability, deterioration in exchange rates and economic stagnation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19 Pandemic
• Coronomic
• Uncertainty
• Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• Monetary Policy

Koronomik Kriz Çerçevesinden Makro İktisadi Belirsizliğe Teorik ve Kavramsal Bir Bakış

Öz

Covid-19 pandemisinin ekonomik sonuçlarını inceleyen araştırmalara yönelik literatür hızla gelişse de belirsizliğin ekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkilerine yönelik kanıtlar henüz sınırlı sayıdadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı makroekonomik belirsizliği Covid-19 bağlamında ele alarak güncel literatürü incelemek ve çalışmalardan ortaya çıkan bulguları sentezlemektir. Pandeminin henüz devam eden bir süreç olmasından dolayı literatür hızla büyümektedir ve bu nedenle araştırmaların temel bulgularının incelenerek, sentezlenmesiyle Covid-19’un ekonomi ile bağlantılarını araştıran çalışmalarda kolaylık sağlaması umulmaktadır. Çalışmanın genel kapsamı belirsizliğe ilişkin teorik ve kavramsal çerçevenin tanımlanması, nitel bir araştırma olarak makroekonomik belirsizliğin ölçümüne ilişkin Covid-19 öncesi ve sonrası ampirik literatürün incelenmesidir. İlgili literatürdeki araştırma sonuçlarına göre pandemi ekonomik aktiviteye ve piyasalara olan güveni azalttığı için iktisadi birimlerin “bekle ve gör” tutumunu benimsedikleri bir beklenti söz konusudur. Covid-19’un yarattığı belirsizlik, çeşitli makroekonomik kanallar aracılığıyla ekonomiyi ve para politikası yönetimini önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Artan belirsizliğin istihdamda kalıcı düşüşlere, fiyat istikrarsızlıklarına, döviz kurlarında bozulmalara ve ekonomik durgunluklara yol açtığı ortaya konmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19 Pandemisi
• Koronomik
• Belirsizlik
• Makroekonomik Belirsizlik
• Para Politikası

Kaynakça

1. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The world uncertainty index (No. w29763). National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2019a). The Global Economy Hit By Higher Uncertainty. (Erişim: 28.09.2021). https://voxeu.org/article/global-economy-hit-higher-uncertainty
3. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2019b). World Uncertainty Index. (Erişim: 05.10.2021). https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/
4. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2020a). 60 Years of Uncertainty. Finance & Development, 57, (1), 58-60.
5. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2020b). Global Uncertainty Related to Coronavirus at Record High. (Erişim: 05.10.2021). https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/04/global-uncertainty-related-to-coronavirus-at-record-high/
6. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2021). Why Global Uncertainty is Declining. (Erişim: 05.10.2021). https://voxeu.org/article/why-global-uncertainty-declining
7. Alada, D. (2000). İktisat Felsefesi ve Belirsizlik. İstanbul: Bağlam Yayınları.
8. Alkan, B. (2018). Ekonomide Belirsizlik ve Türkiye İçin Bir Belirsizlik Endeksi Önerisi. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi.

9. Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., ... & Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104274.
10. Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., ... & Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic uncertainty in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. VoxEU. org, 24. (Erişim: 29.09.2021). https://voxeu.org/article/economic-uncertainty-wake-covid-19-pandemic
11. Alwis A. de. (2020). “Coronomics – Plan Your Eggs and the Basket!” Daily FT. (Erişim: 02.10.2021). https://www.ft.lk/columns/Coronomics-%E2%80%93-Plan-your-eggs-and-the-basket-/4-695109
12. Amit, S. (2020). Coronavirus and impact on the Bangladesh economy: Assessing the damage of the black swan of 2020. Asia-Pacific Journal-Japan Focus.
13. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertainty (No. w26983). National Bureau of Economic Research.
14. Barua, S. (2020). Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Available at SSRN: http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566477
15. Bilgili, Y. (2014). Karşılaştırmalı İktisat Okulları Ders Notları, Makro İktisadın Teorik Temelleri. 11. Baskı, İstanbul: İkinci Sayfa Yayınları.
16. Bloom, E., Vincent DeWit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. (2005). Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
17. Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
18. Bocutoğlu, E., (2012). İktisadi Düşünceler Tarihi. 2. Basım, Ankara: Murathan Yayınevi.
19. Brodeur, A., Gray, D., Islam, A., & Bhuiyan, S. (2021). A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19. Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(4), 1007-1044.
20. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., & Kima, R. (2020). The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty. Economics Letters, 194, 109392.
21. Cantillon, R. (1959). Essai sur la nature du commerce en général: Edited with an English translation and other material by Henry Higgs. Macmillan.
22. Carlsson-Szlezak P., Reeves M., Swartz P. (2020). “What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy.” Harvard Business Review, (Erişim: 01.10.2021www.hbr.org/2020/03/what-coronavirus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy).
23. Carriero, A., Clark, T. E., Marcellino, M. G., & Mertens, E. (2020). Measuring uncertainty and its effects in the COVID-19 era.
24. Carvalho, F. J. C. (1992). Mr Keynes and the Post Keynesians. Edward Elgar Publishing.
25. Clark, G. (2007). The long march of history: Farm wages, population, and economic growth, England 1209–1869. Economic History Review 60 (1): 97–135.
26. Cross, J. L., Hou, C., & Poon, A. (2018). International transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty in small open economies: An empirical approach. Centre For Applied Macroeconomics And Commodity Prices (Camp), CAMP Working Paper Series, No 12/2018, 1-43
27. Davidson, P. (2002). Financial markets, money, and the real world. Edward Elgar Publishing.
28. Demirhan, A. A., & Yüncüler, H. B. G. (2017). Belirsizliğin İstihdam Artışı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ekonomi-tek, 6(1), 1-16.
29. Dietrich, A., Keuster, K., Müller, G. J., & Schoenle, R. (2020). News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact. FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 20-12. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3573123
30. Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2016). Makroiktisat. Çev. Salih Ak, İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
31. Dutta, A., Das, D., Jana, R. K., & Vo, X. V. (2020). COVID-19 and oil market crash: Revisiting the safe haven property of gold and Bitcoin. Resources Policy, 69, 101816.
32. Eichengreen, B. (2020). Coronanomics 101: which policy tools will contain the economic threat of COVID-19. In World Economic Forum. Accessed (Vol. 15).
33. Esen, E. & Yıldırım, K. (2010). Belirsizlik Altında Fiyatlama Teorilerine Post Keynesyen Yaklaşımlar. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, (27), 77-84.
34. Gieseck, A., & Largent, Y. (2016). The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on activity in the euro area. Review of Economics, 67(1), 25-52.
35. Gürgün, G. (2020). Belirsizlik Kavramı, Belirsizlik Ölçütleri ve Belirsizliğin Makroekonomik Etkileri Üzerine Bir İnceleme1. Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 34(1).
36. Ha, J. (2020). Role of Global Uncertainty: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic. Available at SSRN 3748937.
37. Haddow, A., Hare, C., Hooley, J., & Shakir, T. (2013). Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q2.
38. Hébert, R. F. (1985). Was Richard Cantillon an Austrian Economist?. Journal of Libertarian Studies, 7(2), 269-279.
39. Henzel, S. R., & Rengel, M. (2017). Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis. Economic Inquiry, 55(2), 843-877.
40. IMF (International Monetary Fund), (2021). World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries.
41. Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C., & Ng, S. (2015). Measuring uncertainty. American Economic Review, 105(3), 1177-1216.
42. Keynes, J. M. (1936). Genel Teori: İstihdam, Faiz ve Paranın Genel Teorisi. Uğur Selçuk Akalın (Çev.). İkinci Basım, İstanbul: Kalkedon Yayınları.
43. Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
44. Kutlu, S., & Horváth, L. (2017). Post Keynesyen makro iktisadın metodolojik temelleri üzerine bir inceleme. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(1), 95-129.
45. Lawson, T. (1985). Uncertainty and Economic Analysis. The Economic Journal, 95(380), 909–927. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233256
46. Lawson, T. (1988). Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 11:1, 38-65, DOI: 10.1080/01603477.1988.11489724
47. Leahy, J. V., & Whited, T. M. (1996). The effect of uncertainty on investment: Some stylized facts. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(1), 64-83.
48. Leduc, S., & Liu, Z. (2020). The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus. FRBSF Economic Letter, 7, 1-05.
49. Ludvigson SC, Ma S, Ng S (2020) Covid19 and the macroeconomic effects of costly disasters (No. w26987). National Bureau of Economic Research. http://doi.org/10.3386/w26987
50. McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2020). The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 1-30.
51. McKibbin,W. J., & Sidorenko A. (2006). Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza. Sydney, Australia: Lowy Institute for International Policy.
52. Meltzer, Martin I., Nancy J. Cox, & Keiji Fukuda. (1999). The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention. Emerging Infectious Diseases 5 (5): 659.
53. Murphy, A. E. (1997). John Law: Economic theorist and policy-maker. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
54. Orhan, Z. O. & Erdoğan, S. (2013). Para Politikası. 1. Basım, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
55. Papava, V., & Charaia, V. (2020). The coronomic crisis and some challenges for the Georgian economy. GFSIS, Expert Opinion, (136).
56. Pata, U. K. (2020). COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States. Available at SSRN 3637652.
57. Pinshi, C. P. (2020). Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19. MPRA Paper No. 100147.
58. Roach, S. S. (2020). The 2008 financial crisis and Covid-19: A false comparison. (Erişim: 03.10.2021), https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/the-08-financial-crisis-and-covid-19-a-false-comparison-20200320
59. Rosser, J. B. (2001). Uncertainty and expectations. A New Guide to Post Keynesian Economics, 556.
60. Rossi, B., Sekhposyan, T., & Soupre, M. (2016). Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2816841
61. Salisu, A. A., Ogbonna, A. E., Oloko, T. F., & Adediran, I. A. (2021). A New Index for Measuring Uncertainty Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Sustainability, 13(6), 3212.
62. Savaş, F. V. (2007). İktisatın Tarihi. Ankara: Siyasal Kitabevi.
63. Schoenbaum, Stephen C. (1987). Economic Impact of Influenza: The Individual’s Perspective. American Journal of Medicine 82(6): 26–30.
64. Thornton, M., & Çetin, Ü. (2015). Richard Cantillon: İktisadî Teorinin Doğuşu. Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, (80), 157-171.
65. WUI (2021). World Uncertainty Index (WUI): Global Index. GDP weighted average. 1990Q1 to 2021Q3. (Erişim: 03.10.2021), https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/
66. Yarovaya, L., Matkovskyy, R., & Jalan, A. (2020). The effects of a'Black Swan'event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from cryptocurrency USD, EUR, JPY and KRW Markets. EUR, JPY and KRW Markets.
67. Yavuz, S., & Tokucu, E. (2006). Post Keynesyen İktisat ve Belirsizlik. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 147-161.