Türkiye'de Tüketim Modelinin Deşifre Edilmesi: Bir Euler Denkleminin İncelenmesi

Öz

Politika yapıcıların ekonomik modellerinde tüketim için yapısal bir biçim varsaymaları nedeniyle tüketim dinamiklerini anlamak çok önemlidir. Bu çalışma, kredi ve banka kartı harcama verilerini kullanarak bir Euler denklemi tahmin etmekte ve Türkiye'deki tüketim dinamiklerini ayrıştırmaya çalışmaktadır. Standart Euler denkleminden farklı olarak, döviz kuru dinamiklerinin tüketim üzerindeki etkisini anlamak için bir modelleme şeması kullanılmaktadır. Bulgularımıza göre Türk Lirası değer kaybettikçe tüketim artmaktadır. Ayrıca, tüketim davranışında önemli bir alışkanlık oluşumu olduğunu gösteriyoruz. Bununla birlikte, geriye dönük harcama davranışı, gelecekteki tüketime ilişkin beklentiler tarafından domine edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tüketim
• Euler Denklemi
• Döviz Kuru
• Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi

Deciphering Consumption Pattern in Turkey: Testing An Euler Equation

Öz

Understanding the consumption dynamics is crucial as policymakers assume a structural form for consumption in their economic models. This paper attempts to decipher the consumption dynamics in Turkey by estimating an Euler equation using credit and debit card spending data. Unlike the standard Euler equation, we use a modeling scheme to figure out the impact of exchange rate dynamics on consumption. According to our findings, as the Turkish Lira depreciates, consumption increases. We also show that there is significant habit formation in consumption behavior. However, the backwardness is dominated by the expectations regarding future consumption.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Consumption
• Euler equation
• exchange rate
• Gneralized method of moments

Kaynakça

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