Sahra Altı Afrika Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyümenin Kamu Harcamalarına Etkisi: Wagner Yasasının ve Keynesyen Yaklaşımın Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1990-2019 döneminde 30 Sahra Altı ülkesi için Keynesyen yaklaşımın mı, yoksa Wagner yasasının mı geçerli olduğunu araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu nedenle, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkelerinde Wagner yasasının ve Keynesyen yaklaşımın geçerliliği Payne -Ewing modelinden türetilen bir ekonometrik model kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Panel katsayı tahmincisi olarak ise, Eberhardt ve Teal (2010) tarafından türetilen ve genişletilmiş ortalama grup tahmincisi olarak bilinen (Augmented Mean Group Estimator) tercih edilmiştir. Analiz neticesinde, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkelerinde kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu nedenle denilebilir ki, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkeleri için Keynesyen Yaklaşım geçerlidir. Bu etkinin yönü ve büyüklüğü incelendiğinde, Sahra Altı Afrika ülkelerinde kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyi düşürdüğü tespit edilmiştir. Söz konusu Afrika ülkelerinde, kamu harcamalarında yapılan her 1 birimlik artış; ekonomik büyümede 0.3 birimlik azalmaya yol açmaktadır. Bu bulgu, Robert Barro'nun (1990) araştırmasıyla tutarlıdır. Barro (1990) çalışmasında kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisinin olabileceğini, ancak bu etkinin her zaman olumlu yönde olmayacağını ifade etmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Keynesyen Yaklaşım
• Wagner Yasası
• Sahra Altı Afrika
• Kamu Harcamaları
• Ekonomik Büyüme

The Impact of Economic Growth on Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis for Wagner Law and Keynesian Approach

Öz

This study aims to research whether Keynesian approach or Wagner Law is valid for 30 Sub-Saharan countries between the period of 1990-2019. The validity of the Wagner law and Keynesian approach has been tested by using an econometric model, which is derived from the Payne -Ewing model. As a panel coefficient estimator, the AMG estimator has been preferred that derived by Eberhardt and Teal (2010). As a consequence, it is concluded that government expenditure affects economic development in Sub-Saharan African countries. It is determined that government expenditure affects economic growth, and the direction of this effect is negative. This means government expenditure decreases economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. Consequently, Keynesian approach is valid for Sub-Saharan African countries. Each 1-unit increase in public expenditures in the African countries in question; it causes a 0.3-unit decrease in economic growth. The finding is consistent with that of Robert Barro's (1990) research that stated public expenditures may have an effect on economic growth, but this effect will not always be positive.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Keynesian Approach
• Wagner Law
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Government Expenditure
• Economic Growth

Kaynakça

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