Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Gelişme ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişki

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı da finansal gelişme ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki simetrik ve simetrik olmayan ilişkiyi 2003.Ç1-2023.Ç4 zaman aralığında Türkiye ekonomisi için test ederek, literatüre katkı sağlamaktır. Finansal gelişmeyi test edebilmek için özel sektöre verilen toplam kredi hacmi, özel sektöre verilen toplam kredi hacmi ve para arzı değişkenleri tercih edilmiş ve Simetrik Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) Modeli ve Simetrik Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) Modeli tahmin edilerek, finansal gelişme ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu yöntemlere ek olarak, finansal gelişme ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Granger Nedensellik yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre finansal gelişmeyle ekonomik büyüme arasında hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca finansal gelişme göstergesi olarak seçilen değişkenlerden toplam kredi ve para arzının, ekonomik büyüme arasında asimetrik ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuçlara ek olarak, Granger nedensellik testiyle Türkiye ekonomisinde, uzun dönemde, arz yanlı teoriyi destekleyen bir sonuç elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme
• İktisadi Büyüme
• ARDL
• NARDL

The Asymmetric Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkish Economy

Öz

With this study, symmetric and asymmetric relation between growth and financial system is investigated for Turkish economy over the period 2003.Q1-2021.Q4. Total credit private credit, total domestic credit and broad money are selected as a proxy for development of financial system and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method is employed to capture the existence of asymmetric relation between financial variables and growth. In addition to these methods, the causality between growth and financial system is investigated using Granger causality test. Results imply that there is a positive relation both in long time and in short time periods between development of financial system and growth. Furthermore, changes in total credit and broad money supply have asymmetric effect on growth. Granger causality test results indicate that ‘the supply-leading hypothesis’ is valid for Turkish economy in long time period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development
• Economic Growth
• ARDL
• NARDL

Kaynakça

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